Will February Offer Winter's Worst?

Well, it just might start off with a deep snow pack and not go anywhere soon if you believe the afternoon run of the Euro!  The on again, off again Euro has another system staying south of PA and delivering an appreciable snowfall midweek next week.

A foot of snow followed by a 4"er on the weekend!  Couple that with some brutally cold air once again invading the eastern half of the US!  After a brief thaw this weekend with merely a dearth of precip, the fun and games of winter's worst could start later next Tuesday!  Sub-zero air is very possible if the deep snow pack is intact with polar vortex III!

And here is the upper air anomaly (500 mb heights) for next Thursday!  Cold to invade once again!

And the confidence of this is relatively high since both the Euro and the GFS have been hinting at several waves moving from the southern plains off the Mid-Atlantic coast as arctic air remains strongly entrenched over our region.  First the Euro for next week...note the relatively weak low over NW 'Bama.  This is Wednesday am...

Now the GFS has a similar solution albeit 24 hours earlier and a touch further west...

But the point to be taken is that both of the global resolution models are seeing a very similar set-up; low pressure with gulf moisture attacking the arctic high in place over the northeast!  Buckle up baby!  Many times over the years we see this type of overrunning quickly slam the Lower Susquehanna Valley and then end as a little freezing drizzle making everything outside a complete winter wonderland! I'll not bore y'all with the critical thicknesses, but precip types will run the gamut in and around our area! But its not done after that as the Euro shows another low pressure off the east coast (the GFS does too) but here is the Euro...

But that is a different story for a different day!  So will February make you shiver like Don McLean?  American Pie; the song not the movie!  But if you can handle the cold while glancing at the sky this evening with a New Moon not obscuring your star gazing, you'll see a starry, starry night...also a fav from Don McLean!  Enjoy!

And enjoy your Thursday!

Smitty

AA:  I'm concerned February will be the stormiest of the brutal winter of 2013-14!  The cold is almost a given!  This is a compilation of the last 7 runs for the month of February for surface temps... Take a look! That's another brutally cold month ahead if this verifies!  Bundle up your little ones!