Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
Well, it just might start off with a deep snow pack and not go anywhere soon if you believe the afternoon run of the Euro! The on again, off again Euro has another system staying south of PA and delivering an appreciable snowfall midweek next week.
A foot of snow followed by a 4"er on the weekend! Couple that with some brutally cold air once again invading the eastern half of the US! After a brief thaw this weekend with merely a dearth of precip, the fun and games of winter's worst could start later next Tuesday! Sub-zero air is very possible if the deep snow pack is intact with polar vortex III!
And here is the upper air anomaly (500 mb heights) for next Thursday! Cold to invade once again!
And the confidence of this is relatively high since both the Euro and the GFS have been hinting at several waves moving from the southern plains off the Mid-Atlantic coast as arctic air remains strongly entrenched over our region. First the Euro for next week...note the relatively weak low over NW 'Bama. This is Wednesday am...
Now the GFS has a similar solution albeit 24 hours earlier and a touch further west...
But the point to be taken is that both of the global resolution models are seeing a very similar set-up; low pressure with gulf moisture attacking the arctic high in place over the northeast! Buckle up baby! Many times over the years we see this type of overrunning quickly slam the Lower Susquehanna Valley and then end as a little freezing drizzle making everything outside a complete winter wonderland! I'll not bore y'all with the critical thicknesses, but precip types will run the gamut in and around our area! But its not done after that as the Euro shows another low pressure off the east coast (the GFS does too) but here is the Euro...
But that is a different story for a different day! So will February make you shiver like Don McLean? American Pie; the song not the movie! But if you can handle the cold while glancing at the sky this evening with a New Moon not obscuring your star gazing, you'll see a starry, starry night...also a fav from Don McLean! Enjoy!
And enjoy your Thursday!
Smitty
AA: I'm concerned February will be the stormiest of the brutal winter of 2013-14! The cold is almost a given! This is a compilation of the last 7 runs for the month of February for surface temps... Take a look! That's another brutally cold month ahead if this verifies! Bundle up your little ones!
I often wonder from time to time that maybe I should be a bit more cautious with my words, gestures, and mannerisms in my daily interactions with the people whom I associate. Well, none hit harder than just a few hours back when I got a very welcoming request to express my concern of a major snow event next week! I was simply expressing to a friend of mine that the pattern is ripe for a major storm in the eastern US and that the Euro (which by the way has done quite poorly in North America this winter to date) showed in its operational run a crippling snow event for mid next week. Here...take a look...
Now, few of you know this, but I look at the models and their runs EVERY SINGLE DAY! Frankly, I wish I had more time to devote to analyzing the runs and the verification thereof, but educating the youth of America is my bread and butter so to speak...so I am not afforded the time to dedicate to deeply analyzing said model runs. But this Euro run was an anomaly for its "Deterministic"; however, the ensembles have been fairly rock solid with some wintry precip next week. Here, look at the afternoon graphic...just a bit different...
Now the ensembles approach 8" by day 10 and the "Deterministic" is a paltry 4" event. But one thing I'd like to let y'all know is that both the GFS and the Euro are in fairly good agreement that next week will turn most decidedly stormier and with the arctic air staunchly entrenched, well...watch out for winter to rear its ugly head once again!
The timing isn't necessarily there as of this evening, but the GFS paints a rather wintry time next week as well after a "sloppy warm-up" in the form of snow, sleet, and freezin' rain along with some plain rain this week's end...but not too much. However, when scoping the 500 mb Euro ensembles for a 5 day mean...just trying to hone in on the synoptic pattern, a battle ground is developing across the middle of the US...mostly the SE and the northern tier.
Above is the mean of the next 5 days. Note the "white region" is primarily the true area where the fight will be. But one also has to understand this is a five day mean which is an average position of the battle ground. Anyplace within 200 miles of that area is bound to have some precip. And based on climatology, for us in KMDT, wintry types of precip are likely. Here is the 5 day mean 10 days out..."Bermuda ridge" trying to fight back against the Arctic Attack. Good luck there! Hey...how's that Global Warming working out for y'all this past month?
I'm not even going to go out beyond day 10 because it just gets plain old ugly cold ....AGAIN! Well, on 2nd thought, here is the GFS out to day 15...another visit from the land of Nunavut!
Accompanied by ample precip...here is the precip anomaly valid through the 1st week of February...
OK...enough for now. I must consult with my underground informer for further updates...
The last thing I will leave y'all with is while I was writing this, I was listening to some good tunes from Bruce recorded on an album known as "The Seeger Sessions". Pete Seeger performed this song in 1964 at the Newport Folk Festival to expose the song into a more mainstream recording. So I thought I'd share one of my favs off of that album in honor of Pete Seeger who left this world yesterday...
OK...gotta run and listen to our leader on the State of this Union. But who knows...maybe I'll listen to some more Bruce since he is more engaging to me at this point...
Enjoy your cold mid-week...and oh, by the way, in case you didn't realize, its been COLD! ~20ºF below the norms...wow! But warm in AK and CA and Greenland! Ok...going now...
Smitty
AA: It's been cold...next week it will get wintry again. Long term...staying wintry and cold...and likely stormy! Looking forward to baseball season! I've officially become an Orioles fan!
Do y'all remember watching the miniseries "Roots" when warnings of natural gas shortages were being flashed across TV screens in the northeast US during that frigid month? Well...do ya?
Growing up in rural PA and heating primarily with wood at the time, this really made no never mind to me. Also being of the care-free age of ice skating, playing pond hockey, and sledding for a month continuously, I thought this was an awesome experience! But much to the chagrin of my folks and many others, this 1977 January month was a true hardship; as will be January 2014 for many across the eastern half of the US including the deep south. Here are the 850 mb anomalies...Brrrr...
Although a major snowstorm might be hard to come by, the cold will load and reload with a vengeance through Super Bowl Sunday! Let me quickly show you the FIVE DAY MEANS over the next 15 days. These are quite incredible seeing that they are 5 day means! FIVE DAYS! Here is the GFS for the 5 days ending next Friday....Brrrrrr...
Here are the next 5 days ending the middle of the last week of January...
The GFS suggests a progressive pattern, one that Obama likes; however, I believe this western ridge will lock in for about 3-4 weeks thus re-occurring shots of arctic cold will be sent sliding down our way! Look at the Euro's 850 temps...VERY COLD! Oh...and by the way, there is more arctic air re-building once this motherlode unloads!
Please remember these graphics are in degrees Celsius...meaning you can essentially double the Temps to convert to degrees F! Here is the 850 temps for next weekend from the Euro...bundle and buckle up!
So what am I trying to say? Cold and getting colder! As the days lengthen, winter's chill strengthens! I guess whoever made up those old time weather folklores knew what they were talking about! I just wish they had some insights into tomorrow's NFL Championship games for me...I mean, I think these games are about as evenly matched in all aspects! Denver at home is such an advantage, but giving Belichick a week for anybody (...and let's face the facts, he's been preparing for 2 weeks!), he is a master at the game. Just sayin'...
As for the NFC, I'll be in my sunroom rolling dice to see who I should pick in that game. Maybe the best play is OVER since both teams seem to have such a solid D that one broken play, special team fiasco, QB scramble, etc will break the ice and allow for the flood gates to open...just a hunch! Again, that is the Niner's best offensive weapon, plus the never aging Frank Gore!
So take the Pats plus the points and the over in the NFC! But more importantly, bundle up the next few weeks as we have some serious cold on the move...AGAIN! Coldest January since 1977 I do believe!
...and all through the @SmittysSynopsis (Twitter handle) house,
Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse (possibly due to the exorbitant feral cat population in our area!)
No stockings were hung by our chimney this year
We were simply thankful for all we hold dear.
The children (Ziggy and Zola) were nestled & curled on the bed
While visions of feral pussy cats danced in their heads.
And Kay with her nightshirt, and I in my PJs
Had just settled down since there were no more sun's rays.
When over on my nightstand there laid my iPad
My insomnia kicked in, I looked to see what the Euro had.
Away to my desktop, I flew like a flash
Opened up Google Chrome, to see if the GFS was trash.
The waning crescent moon was rising in the southeast
Provided enough light to see my kids outside; those beasts!
When what to my wondering eyes should appear,
But the latest Euro run, providing PA with a moderate snow to end the year!
OK...I'll stop there with my apologies to Clement Clarke Moore...
But I will show the the GFS has a slightly more phased solution, but doesn't hold the cold over the eastern sections of PA like the Euro and thus we end up with a moderate to possibly heavy rain event to end the year.
Which is correct? It's too early to tell. But my concern for receiving an appreciable snowfall will wane like our present moon if we don't see larger arctic high build across southern O Canada during this time frame. The old adage, predict the high; predict the snow works very well in these types of scenarios especially at this time of year! The Euro has a high, but it is not very strong as low pressure seems to easily slice its way into New England. Certainly, interior locations especially in the north country will start to re-develop their snow pack, but it may be too warm here for any appreciable accumulations.
Here is the GFS in terms of surface pressures for the same time period...it is a nice synoptic set up with the exception of a BIG BURLY HIGH in Quebec. Personally, I'd like to see it a few mb higher...this will once again be a close call for snow/rain and the dividing line will be close to our area. Some things never change!
So we will begin to hear of a coastal development for early next week...so I'll try my best to keep y'all updated on the latest modeling updates and expert forecasters thoughts and ideas. One thing I believe is becoming more and more certain is some serious cold will develop once this storm passes. Here is the eastern trough setting up for later next week...
That is a cold 500 mb map for January...and it appears January will be on the colder than normal side for us if you believe the CFSv2...
I hope everyone had a very Merry Christmas Day, and continue to enjoy the Christmastide celebrations for the next week or so...
Smitty
AA: Monitoring the possibility of a coastal storm developing late in the weekend into early next week...followed by some fairly robust cold. Enjoy this Christmastide with your young family!
First off...Merry Christmas to everyone! The most joyous of the holidays, Christmas often marks the beginning of the worst winter can offer in these parts. However, our winter weather actually came quite early to us arriving in time for Turkey Day and lasting right through the middle of the December. But what actually had been a rather impressive snow pack is all but a soggy memory now as record warmth invaded the eastern US! Look at the last 60 days (prior to the warm-up) across North America in terms of temps as compared to the 30 year average...
And...yes...that warm up was one for the record books all up and down the east coast! Here at KMDT, we actually smashed our Dec 22 record between 2:30 am and 3 am when the mercury shot up 9ºF on a strong south wind! I walked outside just to feel the warmth and humidity directly delivered to us compliments of that powerful southerly wind! Note the warmth from the 20th on...and note the persistent cold prior!
In fact, here is what December looks like temperature-wise across the country to this point...the last several days really "tempered" the cold bias for the month...note the strong west Atlantic ridge and warmth over the SE USA as compared to the rest of the country...this is what help create a storm track that help create our brief snow pack. Also note the reloading cold in south central O Canada!
And, for what it is worth, that cold held tough for our neighbors to the north as one of the worst ice storms in recent years pummeled the southern province of Ontario over the weekend cutting power to hundreds of thousands in and around the city of Toronto. Note how the rain and the warm temps wiped out much of the snow pack in the east...
CURRENT:
DECEMBER 15:
This snow covered earth is is key to the upcoming couple of weeks as air masses that will be directly discharged from the arctic WILL NOT moderate too much as they advect south and east in what is forecast to be quite a trough in the upper atmosphere over the next several weeks! Many meteorological signs are pointing to a period of cold that will bring hardship to those who simply are unable to deal with these brutal outbreaks of cold! The graphic below shows the last 3 runs of the CFS v2 in terms of surface temps for the month of January. That is a classic ridge west, cold east stormy wx pattern. And the model is also sniffing out a very deep snow cover in northern New England!
Here is how the upper air forecast appears for the New Year's Eve celebrations...bundle up!
And ALL global models have a storm spinning up the coast for roughly early next week. It is way too early to pinpoint details, but a coastal storm will be lurking in these parts sometime early next week. Here is O Canada's run for the last Sunday of 2013.
And then the hounds of winter will really be unleashed...look at that arctic front crossing PA just in time for the 1st weekend of 2014!
Here are the top 10 analogs for the forecasted upper air heights for next week as per the GFS. There are some cold periods that show up and and that is a classic cross polar and stormy looking signature!
OK...I've rambled enough. I believe you get the idea that is appears this upcoming January will be a cold one for us here in the eastern part of the US. Now that we are past the winter solstice, the days will begrudgingly lengthen...but the old adage "As the days lengthen, winter's chill strengthens" will hold true this January. I hope you enjoyed the furnace resting warmth of the past few days as the furnace will be cranking into the first several weeks into the New Year! In fact, I'll leave y'all with this James Taylor rendition of an old hymn...
In the bleak midwinter, frosty wind made moan,
Earth stood hard as iron, water like a stone;
Snow had fallen, snow on snow, snow on snow,
In the bleak midwinter, long ago.
Our God, Heaven cannot hold Him, nor earth sustain;
Heaven and earth shall flee away when He comes to reign.
In the bleak midwinter a stable place sufficed
The Lord God Almighty, Jesus Christ.
Enough for Him, whom cherubim, worship night and day,
Breastful of milk, and a mangerful of hay;
Enough for Him, whom angels fall before,
The ox and ass and camel which adore.
Angels and archangels may have gathered there,
Cherubim and seraphim thronged the air;
But His mother only, in her maiden bliss,
Worshipped the beloved with a kiss.
What can I give Him, poor as I am?
If I were a shepherd, I would bring a lamb;
If I were a Wise Man, I would do my part;
Yet what I can I give Him: give my heart.
Merry Christmas to y'all! Enjoy your family and friends! For unto you is born this day...a savior for all people...who is Christ the Lord!
Smitty
AA: After this impressive warm spell, cold will invade once again, especially in earnest next week with some serious cold on the move towards the US and these parts! Merry Christmas my friend!
And that said boundary will serve as an atmospheric slope to make relatively warm and humid air overrun the front of much colder, denser, and drier air creating bouts of snow, icing, and even pockets of liquid rain when the precip is not very heavy. The next 10 days after a relatively "warm" Thursday will be quite cold and damp in these parts with snow and ice accumulations continually piling up from time to time. The Euro has even suggested that a sub zero day is possible later next week...but I'm not buying that...yet. This implies the model has a relatively moderate snow and ice pack on the surface in these parts for such serious cold to manifest itself this early in the season. But the cold is something to behold...look at these impressive 24 temp changes in the high plains!
...and the current apparent temps across the northern plains. That cold will slowly ooze south and east towards us by Saturday. It will be moderated to be sure from its present state, but the cold mass will advect towards us unrelentingly! Here are the current "real-feel" temps...
Near 80 in north TX today. Not so much tomorrow...the Big D will not know what hit them overnight! The Big D is gonna experience the Big Chill and I'm not talking the 1983 flick! I liked...FYI.
And that air will be working its way towards us as well...take a look...1st here is 7am Friday.
And then 7am Saturday...
Finally Sunday at 7am...
What the map above doesn't show, but the upper levels are quite cold as well. Thus, when the air starts to push from the southern US later on Sunday, much frozen precip will break out all along the Ohio Valley and up into PA. Just where the axis of heaviest precip sets up is a real question. But the Euro has been rock solid in suggesting that ample frozen precip will fall in these parts by Monday pm and once again later in the week as more warm air tries to erode the arctic air that is in place. Suffice to say, winter will be felt in these parts through next week...and of that I am fairly sure.
Take a look at this meteogram from the Euro for the next 10 days...enjoy the warmth of Thursday kids! 3+ days of below freezing temps later next week following a lot of frozen slop and gooply glop! At the very least, many places across the US in the northern states will start getting into the Christmas feel by simply looking outside at nature's frosting...
One thing to me that certainly indicates that it is coming on Christmas is the short days we are now experiencing...sunset at 4:45 pm after a 7:15 sunrise in these parts...and with that low sun angle, it is very difficult to mix and erode any of these low hanging clouds that have obscured our sky. Joni Mitchell sings about other observations she remembered indicating that Christmas was a few short weeks away...I hope you enjoy as much as I.
And as always, thanks for humoring me by reading my take on this wonderful natural world in which we are but such a small part! Everyday, I become even more in awe at how this natural world operates!
Enjoy your end of the work week...and by the way, that OK-OK State game might be the new college "Ice Bowl"! Temps in the low teens at early kickoff! Snow on the sidelines and in the stands...could be fun! Them Sooners and Cowboys won't know what hit them!
Gotta run...
Smitty
AA: Mild Thursday, but then some serious cold will slowly bleed into these parts and then hang tough for the next week or so. A few bouts of frozen precip to boot along with some liquid sunshine. Ellsbury a Yankee...how 'bout that?
