Merry Christmas!

First off...Merry Christmas to everyone!  The most joyous of the holidays, Christmas often marks the beginning of the worst winter can offer in these parts.  However, our winter weather actually came quite early to us arriving in time for Turkey Day and lasting right through the middle of the December.  But what actually had been a rather impressive snow pack is all but a soggy memory now as record warmth invaded the eastern US!  Look at the last 60 days (prior to the warm-up) across North America in terms of temps as compared to the 30 year average...

And...yes...that warm up was one for the record books all up and down the east coast!  Here at KMDT, we actually smashed our Dec 22 record between 2:30 am and 3 am when the mercury shot up 9ºF on a strong south wind!  I walked outside just to feel the warmth and humidity directly delivered to us compliments of that powerful southerly wind!  Note the warmth from the 20th on...and note the persistent cold prior!

In fact, here is what December looks like temperature-wise across the country to this point...the last several days really "tempered" the cold bias for the month...note the strong west Atlantic ridge and warmth over the SE USA as compared to the rest of the country...this is what help create a storm track that help create our brief snow pack.  Also note the reloading cold in south central O Canada!

And, for what it is worth, that cold held tough for our neighbors to the north as one of the worst ice storms in recent years pummeled the southern province of Ontario over the weekend cutting power to hundreds of thousands in and around the city of Toronto.  Note how the rain and the warm temps wiped out much of the snow pack in the east...

CURRENT:

DECEMBER 15:

This snow covered earth is is key to the upcoming couple of weeks as air masses that will be directly discharged from the arctic WILL NOT moderate too much as they advect south and east in what is forecast to be quite a trough in the upper atmosphere over the next several weeks!  Many meteorological signs are pointing to a period of cold that will bring hardship to those who simply are unable to deal with these brutal outbreaks of cold!  The graphic below shows the last 3 runs of the CFS v2 in terms of surface temps for the month of January.  That is a classic ridge west, cold east stormy wx pattern.  And the model is also sniffing out a very deep snow cover in northern New England!

Here is how the upper air forecast appears for the New Year's Eve celebrations...bundle up!

And ALL global models have a storm spinning up the coast for roughly early next week.  It is way too early to pinpoint details, but a coastal storm will be lurking in these parts sometime early next week.  Here is O Canada's run for the last Sunday of 2013.

And then the hounds of winter will really be unleashed...look at that arctic front crossing PA just in time for the 1st weekend of 2014!

Here are the top 10 analogs for the forecasted upper air heights for next week as per the GFS.  There are some cold periods that show up and and that is a classic cross polar and stormy looking signature!

OK...I've rambled enough.  I believe you get the idea that is appears this upcoming January will be a cold one for us here in the eastern part of the US.  Now that we are past the winter solstice, the days will begrudgingly lengthen...but the old adage "As the days lengthen, winter's chill strengthens" will hold true this January.  I hope you enjoyed the furnace resting warmth of the past few days as the furnace will be cranking into the first several weeks into the New Year!  In fact, I'll leave y'all with this James Taylor rendition of an old hymn...

In the bleak midwinter, frosty wind made moan,

Earth stood hard as iron, water like a stone;

Snow had fallen, snow on snow, snow on snow,

In the bleak midwinter, long ago.

Our God, Heaven cannot hold Him, nor earth sustain;

Heaven and earth shall flee away when He comes to reign.

In the bleak midwinter a stable place sufficed

The Lord God Almighty, Jesus Christ.

Enough for Him, whom cherubim, worship night and day,

Breastful of milk, and a mangerful of hay;

Enough for Him, whom angels fall before,

The ox and ass and camel which adore.

Angels and archangels may have gathered there,

Cherubim and seraphim thronged the air;

But His mother only, in her maiden bliss,

Worshipped the beloved with a kiss.

What can I give Him, poor as I am?

If I were a shepherd, I would bring a lamb;

If I were a Wise Man, I would do my part;

Yet what I can I give Him: give my heart.

Merry Christmas to y'all! Enjoy your family and friends!  For unto you is born this day...a savior for all people...who is Christ the Lord!

Smitty

AA:  After this impressive warm spell, cold will invade once again, especially in earnest next week with some serious cold on the move towards the US and these parts!  Merry Christmas my friend!