Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
It is now quite evident that today will dawn mostly cloudy and the wx conditions in the central and eastern portions of PA will deteriorate throughout the day. There will be no way to escape the progressive line of showers and some embedded heavier thundershowers from a trailing cold front that emanates from a deep cyclone over eastern O Canada. First, take a look at the radar returns as seen early this Saturday morning...
Note the yellows embedded within the wider line of rain. In fact, WPC has become more bullish on a heavier and a wider spread rainfall as noted in their QPF graphic for today...
These heavier showers and storms do have the potential to "train"; that is to move over the same places repeatedly as the entire front advances from W to E. Also note the connection of this line of rain to the deep tropics. In addition, the IR pic will also verify this moisture feed as seen below...
On the satellite pic, you can see the deep storm located over Hudson Bay as well as the vast area of cloud free skies over the prairie provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan. I always liked saying that province and its capitol of Saskatoon! Here is the synoptic map for early Saturday over North America.
That modest double barreled high will strengthen as it ridges SE and be anchored over the eastern part of North America for the bulk of this upcoming week. The upper air pattern suggests an "Omega Block" as the steering winds aloft represent the Greek letter omega. Take a look at the 500 mb prog as noted by the Euro ensembles for Tuesday...note the anomalously high pressures over eastern O Canada that will tend to block normal progression of wx systems across North America for most of next week. So, once we get rid of this rain today, another string of spectacular autumnal wx is in store for these parts for many days to come.
Even as late as next Friday, upper air ridging will be in place keeping any tropical troubles well off to our south and east. Most modeling suggests the area of disturbed wx presently in the Gulf of Mexico will gradually meander across the northern gulf and eventually spin up into "fish storm" over the central Atlantic as this upcoming week progresses. Here is the Euro's depiction of the 500 mb level for late next week...
So, with all of that said, many asked about the short term in my travels yesterday...that is, when will it begin to rain on Saturday? Here is the most recent run of the HRRR model which frankly does a nice job in near term...it shows the band of rain on the doorstep by 2 pm or so today...
So get out there by noon or so, and I would think you'll be dry. All bets are off for the anytime afternoon. But do take time to peruse this post and listen to this unique blues ditty about city rains to our south...sort of...
Enjoy your weekend and the string of pristine wx again next week.
Smitty
AA: Rain for Saturday afternoon. Improving conditions Sunday and then a string of some more fall beauties in terms of the wx next week!
Deep tropical moisture will advect northeast along an advancing cold front over the weekend and potentially deliver some fairly heavy rains in our area Saturday afternoon and evening. Here is the water vapor image as seen Friday afternoon as the remnants of the tropical system Manuel has juiced up the air over TX and now moving NE...
The model below is the High Resolution NAM that shows the 4 hour of radar reflectivity over our region for later Saturday afternoon and evening. There are some rather potent returns indicated for tomorrow...
In addition, the advancing cold front will have some rather feisty upper air dynamics creating even more lift and forcing for allowing greater precipitation to develop over central PA. Take a look at the winds around a half mile up tomorrow midday...
Thus, the models are printing out over an inch of liquid sunshine for most of PA during the period Saturday!
The newly named WFC (as opposed to my older school HPC) isn't quite as bullish with the rainfall as I believe there will be more than depicted in their graphic. That deep tropical moisture will likely do its dirty work and deliver the plentiful rainfall. The map below is total rain for Friday 8 pm until Sunday 8 pm.
But rest assured, high pressure will once again give us another spell of wonderful autumnal wx for the beginning of next week. In all honesty, later Sunday shouldn't be too bad either...
Enjoy your week's end...and your new Apple iOS 7 software!
I'll leave you with one of my favs from one of my favs as it is quite timely for this week...especially earlier in the week! I hope you enjoy...
Smitty
AA: Nearly an 1" of rain Saturday followed by yet more nice autumnal wx. Enjoy your "Harvest Moon".
A very quick post to show y'all that there is a potential tropical system in the making the will affect the Gulf and east coasts from later this weekend into the middle of next week. First, here is the tropical model showing the potential wind swath path over the next 5 days or so...
And the snapshot locations as per the various models...1st the tropical WRF...
The GFS for next Tuesday late pm...
And the King Euro...although it has been very inconsistent over its last several runs!
OK...gotta go...STAY TUNED!
Smitty
AA: Potential tropical system for the middle of next week in these parts.
The title refers to the wonderful autumnal wx we will be experiencing this upcoming week in the greater KMDT region. Climatology suggests high temps around 75ºF with low temps around 55ºF over the upcoming 10 days or so. With ample sun and light refreshing pm breezes, the daytime wx will be spectacular. That is not the case for those in the Lower Rio Grand Valley and eastern Mexico along the Gulf coast and mountains just inland. Possibly one of the stronger tropical systems will develop in the upcoming 24-48 hrs before coming ashore in the LRGV and deliver true heartache to our amigos in Mexico. Take a look from topside of Isabel...
...and a wider angle view for your bearings...
Personally, I believe Ingrid will strengthen to a Cat 2 or 3 before moving into Mexico about 100 miles south of Brownsville, TX. But let's get back to here in our region and take a look at the temps for the month to date...if you think that there has been a warm bias, well people, you'd be correct! See graphically for yourselves...Big ridge in western N. America with a tendency for cooler wx over the eastern part of the continent. But every so often, some of that heat surged eastward like we experienced last week with 2 days in the 90s in these parts. If you are wondering why there is so much blue over the 4 corners region, that is due to the recent flooding rains that have made the news with the flash flooding that has occurred in the foothills of the CO Rockies. But in large, warm and dry has been the rule for the bulk of the CONUS since September began.
And dry it looks to remain in these parts for this upcoming week...take a look...
Temps will swing very slightly this week beginning slightly below normal and moderate as the week progresses. Here is the Euro's take on the temps at 850 mb for the following periods...first the initialization of the model for last Friday evening...
...and now next Friday evening...
Lastly, 10 days out into the future...just another "normal" refreshing air mass diving into the Mid-Atlantic from our friends in O Canada...
The next 4 days appear to be the greatest days from climatological norms in terms of temps as depicted by the Euro...
The operational and especially the ensembles really smooth out the extremes for the 6-10 day period...no wild colors on the map essentially! So if you like "normal" September wx, sans 'Canes, then I believe you'll like what is in store for the next week or two.
Here is the CFS' take on the remainder of the month in terms of temps...ever so slightly above normal is the literal read here...note the cooler blue over the Rio Grande Valley as the model is "sensing" water in the soils to temper hot temps...
OK...'nuff of the wx...after all it is September and beginning to enter the heart of NCAA football season. The "Game of the Week" is A&M v 'Bama. Personally, I'd like to see the Tide D simply shut down and shut up Johnny Football. Not so sure it will be that easy; however, lay the points, parlay the under, and Roll Tide!
As for Manning Bowl III, as I hinted earlier this week, I just think the Giants might give older bro Peyton a run for his money. No real reasons, gut feelin'...
And how 'bout them Bucs, playing relevant games into late September! Now, they simply need to get onto a bit of roll on this long home stand and beat the teams they should...like the Cubbies last night, especially when you go back-back-back and they still came up short. Baseball is funny...
I'll leave you with this little ditty about those Old September Blues...but frankly, this wx shouldn't really promote any blues over the next week or so...Enjoy!
And enjoy your September Football Weekend!
Smitty
AA: Nice, normal September wx over the next week or so...and probably until the last week of the month! Mowing to be lessened thanks to drier than normal conditions, too.
The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, OK has central PA in a slight risk of severe wx for Thursday...Take a look at the graphic below...
I believe that this forecast will come to fruition as today we are experiencing an anomalously warm and humid day for mid September as the GFS points out!
However, come Saturday, we will be experiencing mid-autumn chill in these parts!
With that little bit said, simply be aware of the potential for some particularly feisty storms blowing through the KMDT area Thursday mid-day on into the later afternoon. Now carry on.....
And so it is...very warm...no, downright hot for this time of year! And tomorrow will be no picnic either! Here is the current temps as analyzed by the Real Time Mesoscale Analysis.
With the current humid air mass now in place, heat indices are certainly in the mid to upper 90s...something we DID NOT encounter during all of August if you hung around KMDT! Tomorrow might be a few degrees warmer. Note the mid 90s just west of "Bean-town"! Those New Englanders won't know what hit 'em!
But relief is on the way in the form of a rather potent cold front...here are the Euro's interpretation of the 850 mb temps Thursday pm...
In fact, the GFS paints a 2.5 -3.0 Standard Deviation below norms for Saturday! Quite a cool shot for this time of year! If going to PSU, expect instability showers and lots of stratocumulus to make this mid September day more like late October!
Announcing the arrival of the front will be some rather potent storms as per the NAM. Here is the line of storms; however, I feel the line will be even more intense as depicted by this regional model. I don't have the time to show you all of the modeling and the intense upward motion thanks to the forcing of the steep lapse rates and the intrusion of the much drier air at ALL levels...so I'll spare you the dissertation about autumnal severe wx threats...but be aware, just keep an eye to the NW sky Thursday...
By the way, the 850 mb temps for noon Saturday in central and northern PA are BELOW FREEZING! Go one mile up and temps will be in the 20s! Wow! That reason alone is concern for severe wx for Thursday!
Thus, if you enjoy heat and humidity, take it all in today and Wednesday! You might not see this again until May or June of 2014 around KMDT. Oh, we will get warm again this fall, but not like this...
We are +20F from yesterday; Saturday we will have trouble touching 65F!
OK...enough said for today! Being that it is so warm and humid, I think I leave y'all with this Rolling Stone #13 all-time fav for summertime dittys...As described by Rolling Stone Magazine below... One of the signature soft-rock groups of the early Seventies, Jim Seals and Dash Crofts were childhood buddies from Texas who moved to California and had a huge hit with this sublimely mellow, CSN&Y-style ode to lazy, June-time domesticity. "Summer Breeze" rolled through the jasmine of America's mind in 1972, with an innocent melody played on a toy piano.
Enjoy!
By the way, don't sell the Giants short in "Manning Bowl III" this Sunday...just sayin'...
Enjoy your mid-week...
Smitty
AA: Hot Wednesday, stormy Thursday, interesting time for Friday night lights, downright fall-like for Saturday, NFL Sunday.
This upcoming week will once again feature spectacular late summer wx with a very brief surge of heat and humidity mid-week...let me quickly explain whilst I listen to my new and improved PSU Nittany Lions....do you hear it? Do you hear it? The infamous roar!
2 sprawling high pressure systems will move SE from central O Canada and keep most of the heat and humidity off to our south and west. There will be a brief surge Wed after high pressure system number one settles in for the Monday-Tuesday time frame...here are the forecast clear sky morning lows for Monday...temps will be a few degrees cooler since this is for 2 am and the is a few more hours of radiational cooling until the sun rises ~7:30 am...
It should be cooler than this am when I broke out my chamois shirt to help alleviate the chill. This map shows the surface pressures and the humidity, or in this case, the lack thereof, at the same time Mon am...PWATS are known in the biz as "Precipitable Water". The larger the number, the more humid the air mass...
This 1023 mb will exit stage right and allow for the heat and humidity over the lower Miss Valley to advect NE towards PA. By Wed pm, temps will surge to near 90F and the absolute humidity will easily double making Wednesday possibly the last truly hot day of 2013!
Note the surge of the "green" or higher PWAT air moving towards PA! From an even purer scientific point of view, look at how the center of lower pressure literally is pulling this less dense air towards its center located in Quebec, north of my favorite eastern state, MAINE!
However, lurking off to the NW is yet another surge of cool, dry O Canadian air being ushered in by high pressure so by Saturday am...here are the forecast low temps...note how the lakes are much warmer than the surrounding land adjacent to it. Makes for good grape growing and wine making on the SE shores of Erie and Ontario...or so I am told!
Accompanying that air mass is the much drier air as we see in this model of both PWATs and surface pressures...a nice "banana" high that in the winter would love to be attacked from the SW and lead to a nice overrunning event of snow and ice...not too long for the fun and games to start!
By the way, with this absolutely perfecto wx, all of nature's creatures are taking advantage. Look at what Kay spotted outside our humble abode...simply awe inspiring and impressive!
And a wider view to note the engineering intricacies of his (or her) web; not sure of the structural importance of the "zig-zag" pattern above and below his (or her) body? But it is pretty wild!
Ok...with all of that said, enjoy the remainder of the weekend...and enjoy Boris!
Keeping an eye on the tropics....
Smitty
AA: Nice weather continues next week but with a brief surge of heat and humidity for Wednesday.
