As Good As It Gets

The title refers to the wonderful autumnal wx we will be experiencing this upcoming week in the greater KMDT region.  Climatology suggests high temps around 75ºF with low temps around 55ºF over the upcoming 10 days or so.  With ample sun and light refreshing pm breezes, the daytime wx will be spectacular.  That is not the case for those in the Lower Rio Grand Valley and eastern Mexico along the Gulf coast and mountains just inland.  Possibly one of the stronger tropical systems will develop in the upcoming 24-48 hrs before coming ashore in the LRGV and deliver true heartache to our amigos in Mexico.  Take a look from topside of Isabel...

...and a wider angle view for your bearings...

Personally, I believe Ingrid will strengthen to a Cat 2 or 3 before moving into Mexico about 100 miles south of Brownsville, TX.  But let's get back to here in our region and take a look at the temps for the month to date...if you think that there has been a warm bias, well people, you'd be correct!   See graphically for yourselves...Big ridge in western N. America with a tendency for cooler wx over the eastern part of the continent.  But every so often, some of that heat surged eastward like we experienced last week with 2 days in the 90s in these parts. If you are wondering why there is so much blue over the 4 corners region, that is due to the recent flooding rains that have made the news with the flash flooding that has occurred in the foothills of the CO Rockies.  But in large, warm and dry has been the rule for the bulk of the CONUS since September began.

And dry it looks to remain in these parts for this upcoming week...take a look...

Temps will swing very slightly this week beginning slightly below normal and moderate as the week progresses.  Here is the Euro's take on the temps at 850 mb for the following periods...first the initialization of the model for last Friday evening...

...and now next Friday evening...

Lastly, 10 days out into the future...just another "normal" refreshing air mass diving into the Mid-Atlantic from our friends in O Canada...

The next 4 days appear to be the greatest days from climatological norms in terms of temps as depicted by the Euro...

The operational and especially the ensembles really smooth out the extremes for the 6-10 day period...no wild colors on the map essentially!  So if you like "normal" September wx, sans 'Canes, then I believe you'll like what is in store for the next week or two.

Here is the CFS' take on the remainder of the month in terms of temps...ever so slightly above normal is the literal read here...note the cooler blue over the Rio Grande Valley as the model is "sensing" water in the soils to temper hot temps...

OK...'nuff of the wx...after all it is September and beginning to enter the heart of NCAA football season.  The "Game of the Week" is A&M v 'Bama.  Personally, I'd like to see the Tide D simply shut down and shut up Johnny Football.  Not so sure it will be that easy; however, lay the points, parlay the under, and Roll Tide!

As for Manning Bowl III, as I hinted earlier this week, I just think the Giants might give older bro Peyton a run for his money.  No real reasons, gut feelin'...

And how 'bout them Bucs, playing relevant games into late September!  Now, they simply need to get onto a bit of roll on this long home stand and beat the teams they should...like the Cubbies last night, especially when you go back-back-back and they still came up short.  Baseball is funny...

I'll leave you with this little ditty about those Old September Blues...but frankly, this wx shouldn't really promote any blues over the next week or so...Enjoy!

And enjoy your September Football Weekend!

Smitty

AA:  Nice, normal September wx over the next week or so...and probably until the last week of the month!  Mowing to be lessened thanks to drier than normal conditions, too.