Concern For Heavy Rain Saturday

Deep tropical moisture will advect northeast along an advancing cold front over the weekend and potentially deliver some fairly heavy rains in our area Saturday afternoon and evening.  Here is the water vapor image as seen Friday afternoon as the remnants of the tropical system Manuel has juiced up the air over TX and now moving NE...

The model below is the High Resolution NAM that shows the 4 hour of radar reflectivity over our region for later Saturday afternoon and evening.  There are some rather potent returns indicated for tomorrow...

In addition, the advancing cold front will have some rather feisty upper air dynamics creating even more lift and forcing for allowing greater precipitation to develop over central PA.  Take a look at the winds around a half mile up tomorrow midday...

Thus, the models are printing out over an inch of liquid sunshine for most of PA during the period Saturday!

The newly named WFC (as opposed to my older school HPC) isn't quite as bullish with the rainfall as I believe there will be more than depicted in their graphic.  That deep tropical moisture will likely do its dirty work and deliver the plentiful rainfall.  The map below is total rain for Friday 8 pm until Sunday 8 pm.

But rest assured, high pressure will once again give us another spell of wonderful autumnal wx for the beginning of next week.  In all honesty, later Sunday shouldn't be too bad either...

Enjoy your week's end...and your new Apple iOS 7 software!

I'll leave you with one of my favs from one of my favs as it is quite timely for this week...especially earlier in the week!  I hope you enjoy...

Smitty

AA:  Nearly an 1" of rain Saturday followed by yet more nice autumnal wx.  Enjoy your "Harvest Moon".