3 Shots of 850mb Cold Next 10 Days

As we approach the wonderful holiday of Thanksgiving, as we all should acknowledge everyday, hints of the oncoming cold season will be clearly evident.  There will be 3 strong shots of O Canadian cold being delivered to PA on brisk NW winds, the 1st of which will be occurring after our Saturday soaker.  Let me get to the graphics...

First the onset of the precip looks to be mid to late Saturday morning as the column must saturate before the drops can reach the ground.  With current dewpoints in the low 20s, this will take some time to moisten the lower levels.  So early morning (sunrise-ish) should be dry, but the rain will be quick on the dawning day's heels!  Take a look...

The graphic above is the total precip by 10 am Saturday and the graphic below is when the rain has ended by Sunday afternoon with a few left over showers and even some flakes of snow which may be observed in these parts...

As usual, I've been analyzing the modeling the last several days and it looks as if 0.75"-1.25" seems to be reasonable in the KMDT area.  It truly depends where the onset warm frontal rain band sets up; a little further north, a bit drier; south-wetter.  That's always a tough call for PA, especially with a diving cold shot as seen below!

We will be deep in some anomalous cold by Monday morning.  The temps will moderate a tad Tuesday and Wednesday, but another shot of cold is coming from O Canada for Turkey Day...

But the coldest of the cold will be coming to greet the deer hunters of PA Thanksgiving Monday...Barney purple is cold on these maps!

What lies ahead for the month of December is still "up in the air" so to speak!  The graphic below is the Euro ensembles from essentially today until the New Year...take a gander...

So the guidance is currently suggesting a below normal time of it all for the foreseeable future, beginning with a wind swept blast of cold later this weekend.  And speaking of this weekend...ENJOY!

And enjoy this 3 shot blues ditty...

I'm out...

Smitty

AA:  If you're not done mowing, you sure should be by next weekend!  Cold and getting colder...and I don't think the grass is getting any greener!