First Real Lake Effect

After what was a November 11 feeling more like a January 11, we will slowly work our way back to normal temps.  I don't see any warming per se, just a slow crawl to scour the cold out of the SusQ Valley just in time for a series of cold fronts to push through in the 6-10 day period.  The last 2 of these fronts will truly wreak havoc in the lee of the lakes and the onset of winter in the north country will have commenced in earnest (and in NY and MI and WI and New England and northern PA!...haha).  My first graphic is accumulated snows centered on the Great Lakes...note the downwind snowfalls thanks to the arctic air pushing over the relatively warm lakes...also note the 6 month long snowpack beginning to seriously develop over Ontario and Quebec where those hearty residents are helpless against the advancing arctic air masses!

In order to have good lake effect squalls, a temperature difference must exist between the air mass moving over the "warm" lakes.  The acceptable threshold many atmospheric physicists use for guidance is ~20°F; the greater the difference, the more wild the weather.  Blizzard-like squalls with wicked wind and lightning are not too uncommon during the most optimal synoptics for lake effect.  I'm not suggesting that for later next weekend, but the possibility is certainly on the table.  The current temperatures of the surface waters of the Great Lakes...

The warmest air often precedes the cold frontal passage as air at all levels often surges SW to NE ahead of the advancing front...that would likely be in the Friday-Saturday time frame.  

But then, arctic front number ones blasts through Saturday night and the arctic air is deeply entrenched Sunday.  That is a serious shot of arctic chill.  Dare I say yet another record minimum in the days running up to Turkey day?

Then, that upper air should pull away with the low level cold hanging tough here at the surface in the SusQ Valley.  Before much moderation in temps can occur, look at what's coming right behind! 

So, it is my belief that from here until the end of November, not much if any above normal temps will be experienced in our region.   A low sun angle coupled with stubborn stratocumulus so prevalent in November leads me to believe that we too are helpless with the onset of the upcoming season. 

With those "Helpless" references...here is a dandy...enjoy!

And enjoy your Sunday!  I'm out...

Smitty

AA:  Cold and getting colder with time.  Duh'...winter is coming! But it will be coming fast and furious around the Great Lakes and the arctic chill coming to these parts as well I believe. We set 2 record lows Friday and Saturday; a couple more might be in the cards before this month is past!