Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
I'll be brief this morning as we have a busy day upcoming with Kay's family. Clearly, y'all know its cold and it actually getting colder before it warms the 2nd week of January. As I've been mentioning, the cold is the easy part of the weather forecasts; the precip potential is a whole other ballgame. Although a week out on the Euro modeling, a significant snowfall is now appearing somewhat consistently for our region the middle to end of next week followed by brutal cold (the dreaded "polar vortex" (cue the horror music)). Frankly, it's quite cold in these parts and temps are bottoming out at rather low levels WITHOUT any snow on the ground. That shows how impressive this arctic discharge has been and will continue to be into the longer term. Here are the lows this am. Note the "balmy" 14°F in Erie along with their 103"+ of December snows!
Now, a brief tour of graphics for next week. First the mid-level 500 mb anomaly...
And the brutal cold associated with this dense cold air..
Compliments of a highly amplified jet stream...
Potentially developing a nor'easter...
Here is a graphic representation of the next 10 days in terms of very cold temps (not reaching 32°F in next 10 days!) and snowfall...this is likely the worst winter will offer in terms of temps; likely not for snows...
OK...gotta run. Enjoy your Thursday; the 362nd day of 2017! And please enjoy this...
Happy New Year!
Smitty
AA: Very cold and relatively dry (very little snow this weekend) until next week when there is a real potential for a major snowfall and below zero temps with freshly fallen snows. Happy New Year fantasy champ...BY ONE POINT when the Beagles took a knee for their PAT! Wow!
Alberta clipper systems often usher in bouts of arctic and polar air to the lower 48 states, but a slightly different type of transcontinental system is evolving as I type; a Wyoming bred whipsaw if you will! Once this vigorous little system races eastward to the Atlantic and "bombs out" when fueled by greater water vapor, then the weather community will be watching the invasion of cross polar air into the CONUS. As for us here in the KMDT region, a few festive flakes will likely fall during midnight mass, but for all practical purposes, the greatest impact from this whipsaw will be to our north and east giving the ski country of New England a solid start for their holiday week! Take a look at the current watches and warnings associated with this fast little mover...
Note the lake effect warnings on the lee of Erie, Ontario, and Michigan, along with the wind chill warnings and freezing spray warnings on/around Superior! Winter's harshness will be felt for those hearty souls up on the Keweenaw peninsula with wind whipped snows totaling 1'-2' with the arctic air invasion. For us, the true arctic air will be slow to move in as we are and will be under broad WSW flow as seen by the current mid-level water vapor imagery! (By the way, I love the new GOES 16 satellite!)
You can see the arctic air pressing south across Montana and ND and the arctic temps plunging south into the lower 48. Note the warmer temps north of AK and the cross-polar slide south into Ontario and Manitoba! Brrr....
All compliments of this convoluted jet stream...
This will make for a rather cold week for most of the CONUS less the 4 corners region, California, NV and the Rio Grande Valley. (If you're traveling to the Fiesta Bowl to root on those Nittany Lions, the wx should be nice!) South Florida too is escaping the "cold" thanks to their sub-tropical ridge of warm air!
Now I know many of you are wanting to know about snowfall. Here is the current snow depth. About 39% of the CONUS has at least 1" of snow cover. By next weekend, that total will be greatly increased; however, it is still a difficult call for KMDT.
The Euro ensembles and the operational runs are not showing any type of consistency and therefore confidence is low as seen by the spread of low pressure systems. Clearly a storm is going to develop along the east coast of the US, but timing and location are still "up in the air"! Another arctic high is building over the O Canadian prairies. Take a look...
OK...enough. Merry Christmas y'all! Enjoy this classic. These performers are jamming!
Smitty
AA: A few festive flakes as Santa arrives overnight...then pressing cold for the rest of the week. Still watching a coastal storm potential for Friday-Saturday time frame...?
I've been studying the atmospheric mischief for the last several weeks more so than usual...if that's even possible...and I'm becoming more convinced that Christmas to New Years Day and beyond looks ugly for those of you not liking the winter theme. If you like winter's best; this I believe is the stretch you'll enjoy! First, the cold!
If there is any snow on the ground, knock 10°F off the temps shown above...And now the potential snowfall as per the Euro...(personally, it might be underdone since we live at such a baroclinic boundary...)
The totals shown above are by Jan 1; Happy New Year! I'm not sure if this verifies, but if it does, I'll never see a Christmas week rocking and rolling like this again in my lifetime...? Enjoy!
And enjoy my girl...
Merry Christmas!
Smitty
AA: The 10 day period we do not report might be rather rocking and rolling in terms of the weather! Merry Christmas my friend! Squeeze those little ones a bit harder for me please; I miss doing so but I'll grip my big boy with a bear hug when he gets in town from STL!
The snow forecast is difficult...as is usually the case; THE COLD IS NOT! I believe the next 10-15 days may be the coldest of this winter for KMDT! It's difficult for us to record a low temp below 0 without snow on the ground (or with the AGW crowd, even with!), but I'm thinking the hounds of the Arctic will be trying to do so before the end of this year! Put another way, I will be watching the ball, pickle, hammer, bologna, drop from the shelter of my home (or some other indoor facility!) as opposed to attending live and freezingly in person. Please allow me to espouse...
First...the 850 mb anomaly for New Years Eve..."Barney cold"...!
But long prior to that scene, we will see our last 50+F this Saturday for quite a while...the graphic below is Saturday pm...
However, by Christmas morn...here is what the Euro suggests...kinda normal temps...!
With this height anomaly by mid week...
Just bundle up and buckle up! Here is the Euro snow totes by next weekend...
When the snow falls is still quite an enigma...this is a pattern with potential and a forecaster's nightmare...when?...where?...how much?...and oh by the way, if you've not figured this out yet...I LOVE IT! Yet, another challenge! So I'll leave y'all with this Christmas ditty...Enjoy! Kay says this is my girl...
I'm out...
Smitty
AA: Brief warm up with rain Saturday...then the bottom drops out. Merry Christmas my friend! Enjoy those little ones; they grow way too quickly...and oh by the way, you're going down this weekend in fantasyland...I think??? Ha!
After perusing the copious quantities of maps this morning, one major eye opening parameter recurred over and over. The week between Christmas and New Years looks to be dominated by high pressure across most of North America. What that translates to is very cold and dry sensible weather. However, as I mentioned yesterday, there is an almost summer like "Bermuda High" out over the Atlantic that could fight back the advancing cold from O Canada and create a stormy pattern. The control runs of the modeling is not suggesting that; however, there are many perturbed ensembles that do. I'm unsure about precip but am fairly confident with the cold. Let's take a look.
I like to look at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) analog runs using similar synoptic set-ups at the 500 mb level. Here was their output this am. You can note the large Atlantic ridge and the vast negative over the continent. Also, in the lower right, there are dates. The top date of 1962 was a cold Christmas Day with a modest snow for Harrisburg. The 5th analog is 1983; the coldest Christmas Day on record for KMDT! January 1963 shows up. A continuation of the 5ºF below normal winter (1962-63) for KMDT! Ice was on the river for over 2 months at Harrisburg during that winter. 1967 (8th analog) had 2 major snowstorms all across the east after a warm spell as the cold air advanced. Basically, what I'm saying is there is some winter coming to these parts next week but the proverbial devil is in the details...
Here is the sprawling high pressure over the continent for Christmas week. That is one cold looking arctic high dominating the CONUS. Now does it come in without any arctic carpet is the question??? The top 1962 analog above had 2 moderate snows with the advancing arctic chill.
Again, the cold seems to be easy. The 5 day average of temps at 850 mb; Barney cold!
And the 500 mb heights are quite anomalous as well...
That is a couple days after this. That's the battleground over the east I alluded to yesterday. The flow of air is cross-polar into the northern plains so bundle up for the days following Christmas if this verifies.
Last map...I can't remember the last time I saw a 1060 mb high progged! Vodka cold! Rudolph won't be the only one with a red nose!
OK...off to light the 3rd candle on the advent wreath. I'll leave you with this remake of a Kenny Loggins tune...Enjoy!
I'm out...
Smitty
AA: Christmas week likely to be very cold. Not sure about any snow yet? Lots of man-made stuff at Roundtop. High pressure just might overwhelm the pattern for a solid week!
I'm not sure where to start this am! The 2 minimal snows that did not phase earlier this week; the BRIEF warm-up coming this week; or the day late for a White Christmas battle zone setting up for Christmas week? You know me, I'll address these and a few others...
Well, with yesterday's 0.5" official snowfall, we are nickel and diming ourselves to a "normal" December snowfall total (2.4" so far at KMDT!) The problem is that this is not the normal way for us to achieve our 6" or so normal snows in December; usually it comes in one shot! A string of cold days is not the norm for us in this month of advent! The warm ocean off to the east usually rears its strong arm ridge westward into the continent and we often experience a mild spell until the cold can hold from the northlands, usually in January. However, the battle zone will set up nicely for what SHOULD be a very wintry week between Christmas and New Years.
First, yesterday's light snow was a result of an upper air bump that was a bit slow to create the Mauler I alluded to last week...That screaming jet to our south (below) along with with a smidge of vorticity a tad lower in the atmosphere created yesterday's winter wonderland...
Since I displayed the jet stream above, note the direction of the air coming into PA...the general flow is from the SW; obviously a much milder flow than from Nunavut! That will be the mainstay this week; zonal (west to east) flow. Latitudinal as opposed to highly meridinal if you care...The warm-up will be slow as low level cold is difficult to erode in the SusQ Valley;. However, this week will average normal to slightly above. Friday looks to be the warmest going by the 850 mb temps...take a look...
However, the cold from O Canada will push and bully its way south with the arrival of the "Big Guy"...
That purple above is the key to how much precip we get Christmas week. I've seen battle zones set up like this many times before. Warm air tries to push north much to its demise but delivers a solid blanket of ice and snow in these parts. I'm going to use the snowfall prog to show you this battle zone. The Euro depicts it very nicely...(El Paso (for you MrMazz) to I wanna be a part of it (not really) NY, NY!) It's too early to forecast, but I believe the depth and strength of the cold will rule the roost and cold and dry will be the weather elements we observe...but stay tuned!
There's so much to share, but I don't want to bore my loyal readers...so I'll stop now. I'll likely try to show you the super ensemble analogs tomorrow...do you remember Christmas 1983 for KMDT. That might be in store for Boxing Day 2017!?!
OK...I'm out, but before I go, I'd love to see this group perform at the Red Rocks Amphitheater (not necessarily singing this ditty), but it would be fun for Christmas in July! Enjoy!
And enjoy your 3rd Sunday of Advent (a time to wait, wonder, and ponder of the arrival of Christ the King!) And I sincerely hope none of your Christmases are "blue"; I just like the tune!
Out...
Smitty
AA: A slow and brief warm-up leading to Christmas, but watching for a very cold and potentially stormy Christmas to New Years time period...Stay Tuned!
Just a very brief post this morning as I'd like to show y'all the beauty of the atmosphere from above. The satellite picture in question is from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). I know...nerd; geek! Relax! It's a good tool to inspect from above terra mater. Let's use yesterday's snowfall as the snapshot to observe...
I tried to snip from a mosaic the region around the mid-Atlantic coast which includes most of VA, WVA, NY, PA, NJ, DE, and southern New England. I also "highlighted" 3 areas to inspect in greater detail. Let's start with the blue arrows. Note the linear band that runs SSW to NNE similar to I-81. This is a good shot of the nature of the banding of the precipitation in yesterday's snow. Often, this is the case with a coastal developing storm. The cyclonic flow brings waves of moisture off the ocean and aligns with the topography of the adjacent landmass. Have an imagination...that line, and several others align parallel to the coast as the forced lifting from the elevated land helps in forming these bands. If you're under one of these bands, voila, heavier snow! Lancaster and Berks county had a solid 5-6" event as these locations remained under one of these more intensely precipitating bands for several hours as the storm moved up the coast! Meanwhile, a mere 50-75 west of the last band, skies were filled only with high cirrus or no clouds at all as very dry air was moving in on the backside flow from O Canada.
Now, note the red region. Very bubbly clouds indicating good upward motion and thus good pockets of precipitation. Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Lehigh and Montgomery counties all reported a solid 6" event yesterday. Pockets of 1/4 mile visibility snows are clearly evident as seen from MODIS.
Lastly, the convection and thunderstorms that evolved over the "warm" oceans! The gulf stream runs ENE off the mid-Atlantic coast and carries vast quantities of fuel (warm water) for these storms. A nice baroclinic (a temp, pressure, density thing!) zone (I know...nerd, geek!) steers these storms up along the coast and helps deepen the storm. Look at the anomalous warmth of our coastal waters...
And here is a graphic depiction the observed Sea Surface Temps (SST)...that's mid-upper 60sºF water just off the Delmarva and deepening lows love that energy! You can also clearly note the gulf stream starting with the "loop current" in the Gulf of Mexico and migrating northward along the Florida coast...
OK...enough "Sunday School"! Enjoy the 2nd Sunday of Advent...and enjoy this Christmas ditty...
I'm out...the gym awaits...
Smitty
AA: Technological Device output Analysis (TDA) of a MODIS satellite pic!
Once past today's little skiff with winter weather, my eyes shift to the POTENTIAL of a rather memorable December snowfall event prior to a warm-up the week leading to Christmas. Now, I do not think a "blow-torch" is coming anytime here in December, but a relaxing of the jet and its digging troughs into the eastern part of the continent will abate and more seasonal air will be around for the Big Guy's preparations to visit PA. But when he comes, I believe he will bring yet another shot of the arctic air with him. Let me try to explain...this pattern is wired for sound!
First off, today's snowfall will be an event for the Delmarva and Jersey; not so much for KMDT...but it will get people into the festive spirit for the holidays.
The passing and deepening of this coastal low will serve to dump arctic air into these parts as seen by the 500 mb chart. Follow the isobars back NW from PA as they commence over the arctic ocean and even the pole. Take a look...
That little wave in Nebraska might be a sneaky event for Monday, but I'm looking for something a tad more nefarious for later in the week. I do believe another whitening is on tap for early week prior to the potential for later in the week. The cold again is the easy part of the forecast; the timing of these waves and the potential to join 2 jets is the real challenge! Here is a graphic of the 5 day mean for cold this upcoming week. That is ~10ºC below norms or a good 15º-18ºF below our 30 year average. And just to let my faithful readers know, for KMDT, the normal max is currently 43ºF and the normal min is 27ºF...so that is one cold outbreak depicted below!
And what I will be watching over the next several model runs is how the energy in Iowa and Missouri interacts with its surroundings. The energy back over the Baja, if any piece of that can translate east to help amplify that wave in the mid-levels...well...it COULD get interesting in these parts. Might become a "Manitoba Mauler"! No interaction; then a simple "Sasky Screamer". Again, the ducks are on the pond, but let's see what transpires in the next few days in numerical modeling world!
Whatever does occur, a relaxing of the cold (it has to from what will be a VERY cold week) will occur the week before Christmas. However, the global modeling ensembles are suggesting another arctic attack for Christmas to New Years week...take a look! That vast area of "Barney" color is diving SE towards the lakes and heading for the northeast in the frames prior. It could be a very cold Christmas Day, but that is 16 days hence...waaaay tooooo far to hone in on that.
And the Euro ensembles are seeing the cold hold over the next month... and for you snow lovers, that is the prime ingredient for the blanket of white! Speaking of that, take a gander at the current snow cover...hey...it don't snow in Mexico!
OK...I've rambled long enough. I'll leave y'all with a folk song written by Joni Mitchell and recorded by many artists over the years. My favorite version is performed by Sarah McLachlan but I'll send y'all off with yet another outstanding female vocalist. Enjoy!
Thanks for reading! I'm out, my coffee needs refilled!
Smitty
AA: A wintry week on tap...along with several solid stouts at area establishments for this kinda weather! Watching for trouble late week???
The energy and amplitude of the jet stream is "off the charts" from what I observe not only currently, but well into the future. Snows deep into the Lower Rio Grande Valley and deep south with a solid nor'easter, albeit a tad strung out, moving off the east coast this weekend followed by what I believe will be what will feel like brutal cold for the bulk of next week. This high amplitude pattern is fanning the flames via the oft feared Santa Ana Winds at this time of year in southern California as well! Let's take a gander...
First, a widespread view of the short range reliable NAM for accumulating snows across the eastern US. That's quite a swath of snow from TX to ME...wowser!
New Orleans will miss out of the fun since Lake Ponchartrain will keep the City of New Orleans warm thanks to the northerly flow over the near 60ºF water. There will be NO SNOW FOR YOU! Still impressive for December 8!
This storm just missed "phasing" as seen in the 500 mb anomalies...note the energy in the south just missing perfect north-south alignment with the digging upper energy from the arctic!
Note the low surface pressure over the lakes and the low over the gulf stream in the Atlantic...a near miss!
But that's not the only game in town! There will other opportunities for these short waves join forces and spin up an appreciable snowfall in these parts before the big guy heads south in a couple of weeks! That is one deep trough and very low upper atmospheric heights for this time of year...aka...lot's of potential!
It will be cold to be sure as the graphic below is a FIVE DAY mean temp anomaly! Brrrrr...
OK...gotta run. You know the drill; my pups are nosing at me wanting their kibble. Ziggy and Zola's biorhythms are more reliable than Hillary's email servers! So with all of that said, I'll leave you with a version of White Christmas that I thoroughly enjoy and I hope y'all will too!
I'm out...
Smitty
AA: Cold and getting colder! Just missing out on a nice snowfall Saturday; wide right! But there are other ducks on the pond so to speak. Stay tuned!
The first ingredient for snowfall is cold air at all levels of the atmosphere, top to bottom. I believe that is an easy ingredient once past Wednesday. The second ingredient is ample moisture to either overrun or dynamically being lifted with a solid cold temp profile from the surface to 2-3 miles up. Either way, both should be in effect for this upcoming week. By the way, at this first week of Advent, I believe snow WILL be on the ground when we christians celebrate the birth of our Saviour. Let me explain...
Both the American...
And the Euro...
...have an idea of a wave low pressure developing on the front and giving a bit of accumulating snow in the coastal plain from the Mason-Dixon northward. One thing to be sure is that it will be much colder than recent days...how about 10°F below seasonal norms? As per the Euro...
OK...I've let y'all know the gentle weather of autumn is going to quickly snap and deliver winter-like weather in these parts...likely for the next 30 days plus...which for many will be a rude awakening as we've been blessed with a mild autumn. Many love the prospects of a "White" Christmas, and I truly believe from studying the pattern that this year it is likely that Christmas will be cold with at least an inch of snow on the ground. Here is a map of climatological averages...
With all of that said, enjoy this tune from a Canuck who most likely loves the cold and snow and ice and all of winter's glories. Those of you have read these posts over the last couple of years know I love this artist! Enjoy...
And have a great week in anticipation of Christmas. I will continue to monitor the impending winter-like weather for my faithful readers...Bundle up and Buckle up!
Out...
Smitty
AA: The cold forecast is easy; now I'm thinking snow on the ground by the weekend!
Once I cleaned up my desk and departed from school, I arrived at home and first greeted my two four legged wonders (or should I say they greeted me!), treated them to the usual biscuits, brewed a nice cup of decaf (complete with MCT powder), and got to look at the pm runs of the numerical models. If you are a winter weather enthusiast, well, they did not disappoint. There looks to be some wx talking over the next several weeks! It will be quite a change from the rather benign pattern we've been locked into! Let me describe...
First, let's play the game Find the Arctic Front! Temps will drop throughout the day Wednesday in these parts as true arctic air invades from the NW. The observations across the state of Florida will be rather interesting that day...Pensacola might be near 40ºF while Jacksonville basks near 80ºF! Impressive to be sure...
And speaking of Florida, this graphic shows how strong this front will be as anomalous cold moves all the way down the peninsula...amazing! Graphic below is for next Sunday morning...
For a 5 day average (Wednesday-Sunday), this is noteworthy for this early in the cold season...
And by Sunday, the arctic hounds will feel at home as snow will fly and blanket much of the north country east of the Mississippi setting the stage for repeated cold shots to be longer and possibly even stronger...
At least the longer range climate models (usually warm biased) feel that way. First, the temp anomalies for December...remember, the graphic below includes the first 6 mild days upcoming!
And even into the 1st 15 days of the new year...
OK...the coffee has been drunk and the doggie biscuits have lost their satiation, at least for our big boy...Ziggy the Flabrador! He keeps whining to eat his din-din (that little devil...he'll sit still with any humiliating prop just to get that biscuit from the photographer)!
OK...enjoy this ditty to kick off you week's end...I don't think this song gets enough air time...
I'm out...
Smitty
AA: Looks certain that an acrtic shot will invade the US next Tuesday and reach the east coast by Wednesday. Make sure you get your outside lights up by then!
