Saskatchewan Screamer or Manitoba Mauler?

Once past today's little skiff with winter weather, my eyes shift to the POTENTIAL of a rather memorable December snowfall event prior to a warm-up the week leading to Christmas.  Now, I do not think a "blow-torch" is coming anytime here in December, but a relaxing of the jet and its digging troughs into the eastern part of the continent will abate and more seasonal air will be around for the Big Guy's preparations to visit PA.  But when he comes, I believe he will bring yet another shot of the arctic air with him.  Let me try to explain...this pattern is wired for sound!

First off, today's snowfall will be an event for the Delmarva and Jersey; not so much for KMDT...but it will get people into the festive spirit for the holidays.

The passing and deepening of this coastal low will serve to dump arctic air into these parts as seen by the 500 mb chart.  Follow the isobars back NW from PA as they commence over the arctic ocean and even the pole.  Take a look...

That little wave in Nebraska might be a sneaky event for Monday, but I'm looking for something a tad more nefarious for later in the week.  I do believe another whitening is on tap for early week prior to the potential for later in the week.  The cold again is the easy part of the forecast; the timing of these waves and the potential to join 2 jets is the real challenge!  Here is a graphic of the 5 day mean for cold this upcoming week.  That is ~10ºC below norms or a good 15º-18ºF below our 30 year average.  And just to let my faithful readers know, for KMDT, the normal max is currently 43ºF and the normal min is 27ºF...so that is one cold outbreak depicted below!

And what I will be watching over the next several model runs is how the energy in Iowa and Missouri interacts with its surroundings.  The energy back over the Baja, if any piece of that can translate east to help amplify that wave in the mid-levels...well...it COULD get interesting in these parts.  Might become a "Manitoba Mauler"!  No interaction; then a simple "Sasky Screamer". Again, the ducks are on the pond, but let's see what transpires in the next few days in numerical modeling world!

Whatever does occur, a relaxing of the cold (it has to from what will be a VERY cold week) will occur the week before Christmas.  However, the global modeling ensembles are suggesting another arctic attack for Christmas to New Years week...take a look!  That vast area of "Barney" color is diving SE towards the lakes and heading for the northeast in the frames prior.  It could be a very cold Christmas Day, but that is 16 days hence...waaaay tooooo far to hone in on that.

And the Euro ensembles are seeing the cold hold over the next month... and for you snow lovers, that is the prime ingredient for the blanket of white!  Speaking of that, take a gander at the current snow cover...hey...it don't snow in Mexico!

OK...I've rambled long enough.  I'll leave y'all with a folk song written by Joni Mitchell and recorded by many artists over the years.  My favorite version is performed by Sarah McLachlan but I'll send y'all off with yet another outstanding female vocalist.  Enjoy!

Thanks for reading!  I'm out, my coffee needs refilled!

Smitty

AA:  A wintry week on tap...along with several solid stouts at area establishments for this kinda weather!  Watching for trouble late week???