Under HIGH Pressure

After perusing the copious quantities of maps this morning, one major eye opening parameter recurred over and over.  The week between Christmas and New Years looks to be dominated by high pressure across most of North America.  What that translates to is very cold and dry sensible weather.  However, as I mentioned yesterday, there is an almost summer like "Bermuda High" out over the Atlantic that could fight back the advancing cold from O Canada and create a stormy pattern.  The control runs of the modeling is not suggesting that; however, there are many perturbed ensembles that do.  I'm unsure about precip but am fairly confident with the cold.  Let's take a look.

I like to look at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) analog runs using similar synoptic set-ups at the 500 mb level.  Here was their output this am.  You can note the large Atlantic ridge and the vast negative over the continent.  Also, in the lower right, there are dates.  The top date of 1962 was a cold Christmas Day with a modest snow for Harrisburg. The 5th analog is 1983; the coldest Christmas Day on record for KMDT!  January 1963 shows up.  A continuation of the 5ºF below normal winter (1962-63) for KMDT!  Ice was on the river for over 2 months at Harrisburg during that winter.  1967 (8th analog) had 2 major snowstorms all across the east after a warm spell as the cold air advanced.  Basically, what I'm saying is there is some winter coming to these parts next week but the proverbial devil is in the details...

Here is the sprawling high pressure over the continent for Christmas week.  That is one cold looking arctic high dominating the CONUS.  Now does it come in without any arctic carpet is the question??? The top 1962 analog above had 2 moderate snows with the advancing arctic chill.

Again, the cold seems to be easy.  The 5 day average of temps at 850 mb; Barney cold!

And the 500 mb heights are quite anomalous as well...

That is a couple days after this.  That's the battleground over the east I alluded to yesterday.  The flow of air is cross-polar into the northern plains so bundle up for the days following Christmas if this verifies.

Last map...I can't remember the last time I saw a 1060 mb high progged!  Vodka cold!  Rudolph won't be the only one with a red nose!

OK...off to light the 3rd candle on the advent wreath.  I'll leave you with this remake of a Kenny Loggins tune...Enjoy!

I'm out...

Smitty

AA:  Christmas week likely to be very cold.  Not sure about any snow yet?  Lots of man-made stuff at Roundtop.  High pressure just might overwhelm the pattern for a solid week!