Land-falling Arthur?

Just a very quick update of the myriad of modeling now available for one with an insatiable appetite for this sort of thing...so much data; so little time!  First, here is the latest out of the NHC.  Many of you are familiar with these locations along the Outer Banks and the Delmarva...

And a topside IR view of our soon to be first hurricane of 2014...moving N at 8 mph; sustained winds at 70 mph; 365 miles SW of Cape Hatteras (HSE); 31ºN, 79ºW; 988 mb...a strengthening menace to be sure!

Closest buoy obs...first the locator map...it is the largest yellow polygon...waves were measured at 12'...

And the wind & pressure plot...note how the pressure is falling precipitously as the winds are rapidly becoming gustier and stronger...Buoy 41004 for those of you so inclined to follow over the next several hours...

Now the multi-million $$ question is will this storm come inside the OBX or remain offshore??? Most of the models paint an ugly land falling scenario and much heartache for those with OBX interests.  Hurricane forced winds appear very likely for a several hour period along the OBX.  Just how much surf will accompany these powerful winds; again determined by the EXACT center of this storm!  So here is the modeling...

Offshore GFDL...

Land falling HWRF...

Land falling NAM...

Land falling O Canadian regional model...affectionately named Reggie...

Land falling GFS...since this is a global model, the scale will be much smaller in scope...

Just offshore Euro...

The 500 mb winds will keep this well away from the Jersey shore; however, winds and rains will certainly be experienced Friday along most of the Atlantic seaboard from VA Beach points north and east...

The official forecast from the phenomenally talented scientists at the National Hurricane Center looks like this...

To continue to follow and monitor the storm at your own desire, here is the link for the NHC directly for the Arthur updates.  The updated NOAA sites are at first a bit confusing but once you get the hang of navigating about, they are second to none!  Again, so much data...so little time!

ARTHUR UPDATES National Hurricane Center

I sincerely hope everyone enjoys their July 4 celebrations and this storm along the east coast doesn't wreak havoc with plans or property or worse yet...life!  Heavy surf WILL BE A MAJOR concern at all east coast beaches this weekend...so just be aware...and be safe!

Smitty

AA:  Monitoring the east coast tropical storm and hurricane Arthur.  Central PA spared from most effects.  Just some gusty NW winds Friday into Saturday and high clouds off to the east...my 2 would never let us dress them like that above!