A Look Behind and A Look Ahead

Just yesterday morning upon awakening, my wife stated to me something that essentially amounted to "well it's July 1...summer is half over!".  Frankly, she is almost correct meteorologically.  With the 3 warmest months being June, July, and August in these parts, summer is a third over.  So let's see how summer is doing in terms of temps to this point and what is forecasted for the upcoming month of July, the warmest of the summer months.  The temperature anomaly map below shows what this past June served the US...a slight bias to the upside in PA.  By the way, KMDT's June temperature anomaly calculated out to +1.4ºF with only 2 days surpassing 90ºF.  Our precip for June was slightly above the 30 yr average with 0.18" to the upside.

With that said, the month ahead looks to be slightly cooler than norms over the eastern Rockies, plains, & Great Lakes...moderating towards the Atlantic if you believe the CFSv2.  Thus, the heart of the continent appears to be heading for a rather pleasant summertime.

In these warm days, just remember it was a few short months back that most of the continent endured very cold winter...here's the graphic for a vivid reminder!

In terms of the sensible weather in the much nearer term, the 5 day temps centered over the upcoming July 4 weekend look like this...maybe a bit cool for some heat loving folks in these parts...

And the current heat and humidity will be a thing of the past once a strong cold front sweeps off the east coast by Thursday.  As it approaches PA later today, numerous showers and storms will fire in the hot and humid air mass.  Thus the Storms Prediction Center (SPC) has placed essentially the entire NE under the "Slight" risk category of having a severe thunderstorm...

...while one of their newest forecast products indicates a rather high probability of experiencing at least a strong thunderstorm as shown in the graphic below.

Finally, I would be remiss if I did not address the first tropical system of 2014, Arthur.  Currently, here is a top view of this tropical storm with 60 kt sustained winds as of 2 am EDT.  The Bahamas appear to be getting raked with huge thunderstorms at this time!

The current modeling is in remarkably good agreement as you can see as well...

Big surf along the east coast; the bulk of the heaviest precip will stay well east of PA.  That's not to say that some of the tropical moisture will not get involved with some potential leftover Thursday storms.  Here is the HPC forecasted precip over the next few days; the bulk of ours will come later Wednesday into the overnight into early Thursday morning with another round of convection later Thursday pm...

The "purples" from VA to ME in the graphic above are primarily from the storms that will fire Wed & Thursday.  Clearly, the rain swath offshore is associated with Arthur.  But as the close-ups from the modeling show, the effects of Arthur will not be too far from our region...1st, when the storm will have its greatest impact over the Outer Banks of NC and HSE...

Then 6 hours later as it translates towards the NE and begins to accelerate away from the continent...nature will supply her own fireworks for Delmarva & Jersey shore beach goers this July 4!

Alright, gonna run...literally.  So I'll leave y'all with one of my favorite tunes which really assists me in cranking out a good workout whether throwing around some weights or pumping the gauge on the cardio equipment...nothing to do with weather; just some good old KA Rock & Roll!  I hope you enjoy...

Enjoy your 4th...and for beach goers, pay attention to the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) advisories and updates!  Be aware and be safe in the surf!

Smitty

AA:  Storms Wed and Thursday will break this heat/humidity.  Weekend looks spectacular again!  Again, typical summertime wx with recurrent short bouts of heat/humidity followed by periods of cool/dry relief for the next couple of weeks.  Keep apprised of soon to be Hurricane Arthur off the SE coast of the US.  Enjoy your 4th of July my friend; can the O's go into Bean-town and take 2 of 3 from the Bosox?