Where are the Hurricanes?

That was a question a former colleague posed to me today electronically.  Not that this gentleman who lives in a flood plain is looking forward to another bout of heavy wind and flooding rains...I just believe he was genuinely curious as to the whereabouts of the tropical menaces that appear this time of year.  Climatologically, he is spot on as the graphic below indicates...

From mid-August to mid-October, one is likely to see several tropical storms and hurricanes during this period in our Atlantic basin.  However, even though the hurricane center is presently monitoring 2 areas that are likely to be named, there has been a major factor to inhibit convection in the tropics and that is Saharan dust being whipped high into the atmosphere to replace mid and high level humidity and thus dampen the likelihood of tropical development.  Look at this satellite pic showing just this very thing...

Yet, in spite of this, there is potential in the tropics as seen from this water vapor sat pic...note the central Atlantic and the area of deep moisture with a minor circulation...

In addition, take a gander at the storm complexes just moving west from the African continent.  These too have potential as the pattern is beginning to favor tropical development.

Meanwhile, back home where it certainly feels tropical, it will not next week.  Take at look at the temps over the next 5 days for the period ending Labor Day...

...but then look at the next 5 days for the period ending next Sunday!

In fact, just in case you're curious, here is what the CFS v2 suggests for all of September...near to ever so slightly below normal here in PA.

With all of this talk about the tropics and hurricanes, I once again am reminded about our recent trip to bayou country.  It's one thing to read about; it's really wild to drive on I-10 for dozens of miles at a time on raised "causeway" type interstates just to stay out of the water.  It is really quite different!  So it's no wonder to me that these folks who lead a tough life found time to live life and have a grand 'ol time since they were "Born on the Bayou"...one of my favs from CCR...and I hope you enjoy as well.

Enjoy your Friday Night Lights...and enjoy your week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Looking for tropical troubles; a few might be brewing sooner rather than later.  Much cooler and drier next week!