A Wary Eye West

I know; it's been awhile.  But this potential late summer "severe" weather event pushed me to pen...or keyboard! What event might you ask?  The pattern has been very calm!  Indeed it has been and we've been experiencing rather benign wx of late. However, as a huge late summer heat ridge has built over the Midwest, PA is on the eastern periphery of this heat and parts of PA have been in/out of some rather heavy rains and strong thunderstorms.  Tomorrow (Wed), I believe somewhere from I-81 west to the I-79 corridor will receive copious amounts of rain that will likely lead to flash flooding since most of that terrain is rather mountainous.

Here's the set-up...first the heat to help supply the necessary energy...

And the present upper air indicating the huge heat at the 500 mb level...note the large high pressure over KA, MO, AR, OK!

Well, the numerical modeling is bullish on developing a cluster of thunderstorms that will traverse western and central PA overnight tonight into later Wednesday evening.  Just where the heaviest rain does fall is the million dollar question?!?  The strongest upward motion will be over western and central PA Wed pm...note the "swirl" that is evident right over central PA.  These dynamics will act to squeeze the humidity right out of the air and rainfall should be widespread and heavy!

The humidity is in place as most of you know by feeling it and as seen by these dew points...

The global Canadian and the Euro and in fairly good agreement here in the short range delivering the worst of the rains to western PA and the panhandle of MD.  However, just be wary that a slight shift east of where this axis sets up will cause heavy rainfall in the KMDT midday Wednesday on into the evening. Here is O' Canada and her solution to this interesting synoptic set-up...just a snapshot for Wednesday midday...

So an axis from Detroit to the southern Delmarva will be where the heaviest rain should fall...here is the Euro meteogram for IUP...(with convection, places just a few miles apart can observe vastly different amounts of rainfall; just where does that axis of heaviest rain develop?)

This system will then continue to dive SE and "bomb" once it gets to the tropical waters off the VA tidewater.  We here in the KMDT area will be treated to lowering humidity and more comfortable temps again on the back side of this digging wave for Thursday and Friday before another surge of heat and humidity try to move east from the impressive late season heat wave in the Midwest.  By Friday morning, the Euro has quite a system from this synoptic set-up!

So, with that, I opined about the potential for some very heavy rainfall that might just make in-roads here to KMDT, but should stay just to our SW and then S and then off to our E.  That's not saying we don't get any rainfall, but the heaviest should be out in the Laurels tomorrow.

Several have asked why I haven't "blogged" for the last half year and the reasons are many...but I may just start up again.  So if you'd like, pass this on...or dump it in the digital trash. But as many of you know, just prior to the start of yet another glorious academic year, I ventured to several more MLB parks in the SE quadrant of these United States.  One of the stops along the way was "The Big Easy". No MLB, just some butt-kickin' blues.  In fact, I'll leave you with a song that I heard for TEN DAYS being sung from the rear of the vehicle when the crooner in question wasn't sleeping!  I hope you enjoy as much as I did!

And enjoy your "hump day; only 3 days until "Friday Night Lights"!

Smitty

AA:  Heavy rain probably just to our west Wednesday; slightly cooler and drier for Thursday and Friday!  Getting warmer and more humid for the weekend again.