A Snowless January

, Well, the possibility exists!  In fact, it is a very real possibility as I work my way through the medium range modeling.  However, prior to doing so, there is one very prominent proverbial "fly in the ointment" for this Friday night into Saturday morning time frame.  The GFS and to a minor extent, the ECMWF, create a small wave of low pressure that will erode the cold air that will be in place later this week.  The GFS keeps the wave to our south; however, as many of you are aware, the GFS will correct a bit to the north and if modeled correctly, we could see ~0.5" of liquid falling all as snow.  This would be a small plowable storm for the beginning of our upcoming weekend.  However, if you didn't feel like plowing or shoveling, you would not need to do so as mother nature thanks to the +NAO and +AO will melt away any evidence of winter's presence by early next week.  Here is the potential winter wx event for this Friday night into early Saturday morning...

One thing to note on the above map is that the Cascades will be getting hammered with snowfall this week and into next week as well.  The Pac NW and the CA Sierra do need to get their "money in the bank" snowfall when the getting is good!  Presently, the Sierra, like all of the US is hurting for snow pack.

Here is the snow cover for the entire US...This is much greater coverage than last Friday as the lake effect machine kicked in over the weekend.  If I post later this week, we will note how much the snow will have retreated by this upcoming weekend as the snow depth is minimal in IN, OH, IL, and western PA.

But next week and the week after look to be warming considerably after this week.  Here is the GFS ensembles for North America in terms of probability of above normal warmth for the upcoming period 2 weeks hence.

As long as there is a strong AK temp minima, there will be no way to get cold and snow to the eastern part of North America, especially here in the Mid Atlantic!  That map above is simply uuuuugh for any winter wx enthusiasts here in our neck of the woods!  The map below shows the 7 day running mean of temps for the period ending one week from today.  Look at that 20+ degree anomaly in the deep south!  Now this is an average of the daily means over a 7 day period ending next Monday. 

Look at the same stat for the 7 day period ending next Thursday, the 26th of Jan!  Wow!  The sled dogs in MN won't know what in the world is going on!  They'll probably have a doggie convention and blame the anomalous warmth on global warming!  On thing for certain; this type of warmth in January will not help the depressed Nat Gas prices here in the states.  With that in mind, one better try to make some money in the oil and oil services as opposed to companies with large exposure to strictly natural gas.  Remember my disclaimer....thank you!

In closing, what a sports weekend for local high school athletes and some interesting professional results as well!   The CD wrestling team put on a clinic in their own duals.  In doing so, this A1 program has earned the state record for consecutive wins in dual matches, now at 82 and counting.  It is a real pleasure to witness these wrestlers' endeavors; some with technical skill, some with brute strength, some with shear heart...all with desire!  Then, at the Villa BB tourney at CDHS, the nightcap proved just how dominating a player Devon Thomas can be.  It certainly helps that he has an incredibly strong supporting cast, but when he focuses strictly on the game and ONLY THE GAME, he is capable of single handily taking control of a high school game with his size and athleticism.  If he continues to maintain focus, the CD boys will be a tough "out" in any tourney they are "in"!  And in the professional ranks, the 49ers-Saints game was certainly entertaining, but the football school was taught by the NY Giants!  A power running game and a staunch defense proved too much for the Pack from GB!  Being an Eagles fan, it is difficult to root for the Giants; however, I love their style of physical football.  Control the game by running the rock and being fundamentally sound defensively!  These ingredients almost always win at ALL levels of football!  I do believe that the Super bowl will be the 49ers-Giants match up next weekend.  It should be a good defensive heavyweight game.  I like the Giants for what it is worth at this point....a cold rain looks to be in the cards for SF next weekend...

Take the Giants and Under in the potential quagmire...

Have a good week!

Smitty

AA:  After a rainy Tuesday, temps will again be January-like.  Then a major warm up for the next 2 weeks.  Could have a little snow Friday night into Saturday, but all will be melted once again by early next week.  Congrats on your efforts in the CD wrestling program!  I like the Giants in the NFC Championship game....you?