Winds of Change

The spring often brings roller coaster wx or see-saw type wx often accompanied by strong gusty winds.  These winds of change tend to usher in colder and drier air following a rain or snow event, but then again, sometimes the same winds of change from the SW bring in warmer and slightly more humid air from the mid part of our continent.  Yesterday, much to the dismay of many people in the Ohio Valley, these winds of change were devastating and tragic.  Reuters confirmed 26 people lost their lives on Friday as a result of the tornadic storms in spite of adequate severe wx warnings from the NWS.  Nearly 100 unconfirmed tornadoes were reported on Friday!  Springtime volatility is an understatement.

And this type of volatility will be present in our wx this upcoming week.  In fact, the GFS is backing off of its bullishness on the warmth and now beginning to trend more towards the Euro where transient deep troughs of cold air will spill through the eastern US.  The Euro has an extremely deep trough on our doorstep for next weekend...where were these cold shots in January???

But here is the GFS' depiction for about the same time later this week.  And it hints of a trough, but the upper air pattern suggests against it coming guns ablazin' south and east.  In fact, that map below would support temps in the low 60s for us here in southern PA!

Now, in the short term, both the Euro and the GFS do agree that Monday will be cold.  Here is just the GFS for late Monday-early Tuesday.  Again, I ask rhetorically, where were these troughs in January???  That is cold...and what I believe will be the last true cold day of the winter.  Yes, we will have subsequent cold wx, but not to this extent...although the Euro disagrees with me!



Next weekend, one of springtime's bane will possibly play a role in our wx.  The phenomenon is known as a back door front.  A large area of cold air drains down from New England into eastern PA and makes for a rather cold time of things!  Here is the classic set-up as depicted by the GFS for late next weekend.  The Euro just blasts the cold into us; the GFS "backdoors" eastern PA and down the east slopes of the Appalachians.  What earlier looked like a slam dunk of quite mild air ruling the roost now looks to be in question by a couple of differing solutions.  Such is the fickle wx of our spring...

But the winds of change (SW) will bring back the warmth to us by early the 2nd week of March....

In any event, just enjoy the moderating temps March has to offer and hopefully the clear skies from time to time over the next couple of weeks.  If the skies are indeed clear, get outside in the early evening and look towards the east where Leo the Lion will be rising with bright star Regulus punctuating the backwards question mark.  But, more importantly than this zodiac constellation is the Red Planet just to the south of this stellar grouping.  Mars is approaching its most favorable position to be viewed, observed, and even photographed by us earthlings.  Every 2.1 years, Mars reaches opposition, a position that places it opposite of the sun and thus in the darkest and closest parts of the sky for us to observe.

I clearly remember the Martian opposition of 2003 which led to a widespread Internet hoax where people were led to believe that Mars would appear as large & as bright as the full moon since it was the closest it would be to earth for the last 60,000 years!  True enough in terms of its proximity, but 35,000,000 miles will not allow our companion planet to appear that bright or large in the sky!  The moon is only 240,000 miles from the earth...or about 150 times closer than Mars during its 2003 opposition!  Here is a diagram showing the Martian oppositions over the past decade and towards the next...Wouldn't those exaggerated ellipses make Kepler proud?

So if you get a chance over the next couple of weeks, a couple of hours either side of midnight, look for the storied Red Planet at about 60º altitude above the southern horizon and with any luck you might see this...

Or not...since the pic above was taken by the Hubble Space Telescope!

OK...I've rambled long enough!  For those of you who just click on this to see what off the wall comments I might have for the summation...or music video I stumbled upon to match some of the catch phrases used in the dialog above, I remember this classic from The Scorpions entitled the same as what I titled this post.  This hit from 1990 is a favorite of mine and serves as hope for the political turmoil in which this world is still entrenched. 

Enjoy...and enjoy your week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Cold...then mild....then cold (but not as cold)....then mild....then cold (but not as cold as the 2nd cold)...then mild...all the while with Winds of Change blowing with vigor over the next couple of weeks.  Check out Mars...and if you're real astute, note its retrograde movement ~1 month from now!