Synoptic Summation This Sunday

A cold front now to our east, which passed through yesterday midday accompanied by those winds of change,  will be followed by a trough Sunday and Monday, pulling away during Tuesday.  This will produce primarily a quick shot of colder & drier air along with some instability snow showers closer to Lake Erie.  Take a look at the visible satellite pic from yesterday.  Note the definitive line of clearing from the wx system that passed off to our SE yesterday, still wreaking havoc in the deep south.

Here is a numerical depiction of the trough at 500 mb coming through the next 24 hours...That is a vigorous trough that will spin up a storm just to our east...Note all of the energy accompanying this trough; no wonder the wx was so feisty the other day!

Here is the ocean storm, just another miss in the winter of 2011-12!

The trough will flatten quickly by Wednesday and a ridge of high pressure will develop over the east...

A surface high pressure will set up over the western Atlantic Ocean, a Bermuda High (although just a tad north) if you will, and will keep Harrisburg, along with the vast majority of the east coast, dry and allow it to become increasingly mild for the middle to end of next week!  Note the SW flow around the 1036 mb high pressure!

Another strong front will be working its way across the mid-section of the country as seen on the map above and below producing what is likely to be another round of volatile wx (although its waaaaay tooooo early to determine is the severity will be as ferocious and heartless) this time focused more on the Arklotex region...

...and those winds of change will once again be ominously breathing down our backs by next weekend once again!  But a large area of high pressure (1040 mb) will dominate the northeast and once again provide what at first will be chilly wx, but moderate into something more springlike a week from now into early the following week...

All eyes will be watching what now is a new feature on the numerical modeling; the infamous cut-off low.  The old adage is well known in the field; cut-off low is a weatherman's woe!  That thing just sits and spins over TX for several days as depicted by the GFS!

For us, the flow "over the top" will mean moderating temps until that upper low decides to do its thing!  You can see the Euro keeps the upper low back over the deserts of the SW whereas the GFS has the cut-off reflection over TX.  Both the Euro and the GFS overwhelm the lower 48 with mild springlike air for next week, so consistent temps in the 60s look easy for next week...maybe touching 70ºF by Wednesday the 14th!

Look at the NAEFS probabilities for next week's temps!  Wow!  Spring in its full glory across the lower 48 while Alaska can't shake this winter!

OK...there is a Sunday Summary for y'all!  How I see the wx over the next 2 weeks or so.  I know many of you are not too much into the tech stuff seeing that we did not grow up with it, but I for one think Twitter is very cool!  You can quickly get info and data within minutes...good for being "on-the-go" to and fro.  So if you are so inclined, sign up for a Twitter account and check it out.  And if you do, you can follow various aspects of society that interest you...including many dandy agencies and their designees that keep followers informed of happenings and events in their niche.  I opine on Twitter as well and obviously often do so about upcoming or impending wx.  So if you follow @SmittysSynopsis on Twitter, you'll get some quick info on weather data and my oft times intransigent thoughts on other matters of the heart...if you so desire...

Enjoy your Sunday!

Smitty

AA:  Roller coaster ride in temps this week...becoming consistently warmer for much of next week!