Hurricane Seasonal Forecast from Dr. Wm.Gray

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2011 Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)	Issue Date 8 December 2010	Issue Date 6 April 2011	Issue Date 1 June 2011
Named Storms (9.6)	17	16	16
Named Storm Days (49.1)	85	80	80
Hurricanes (5.9)	9	9	9
Hurricane Days (24.5)	40	35	35
Major Hurricanes (2.3)	5	5	5
Major Hurricane Days (5.0)	10	10	10
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (96.1)	165	160	160
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (100%)	180	175	175

The table above shows Dr. Bill Gray's Atlantic basin forecast for this year's upcoming hurricane season.  As you can see, the forecast gets updated as greater analysis and data scrutinizing occurs.  Dr. Gray has been a leader in tropical forecasting for the last 2 decades and does the bulk of his research while working at Colorado State University.  His forecast is based on a new extended-range early June statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 29 years of past data. Analog predictors are also utilized. Overall, according to Dr. Gray, conditions remain conducive for a very active hurricane season.  Below are a few more probabilities as determined by Dr. Gray.

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 72% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 48% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 47% (average for last century is 30%)

PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20°N, 60-88°W)

1) 61% (average for last century is 42%)

It does appear as if by early next week, we will be looking at Arlene forming in the Caribbean and delivering copious amounts of precip to Cuba, Haiti, Jamaicamon, & the Dominican Republic.  As the satellite pic shows below, there are a large number of thunderstorm clouds just to the south of Hispaniola and upon close inspection, you can see a hint of rotation with the clouds.  What the satellite image doesn't show is that the upper winds are actually pretty favorable for these clouds to get named Arlene by next Monday or Tuesday at the latest!

This numerical guidance from the UKMET shows most decidedly a tropical storm starting to develop by Sunday evening.

2011 STATE IMPACT PROBABILITIES (NUMBERS IN PARENTHESES ARE LONG-PERIOD AVERAGES) State	Hurricane	Major Hurricane
Texas	50% (33%)	20% (12%)
Louisiana	47% (30%)	20% (12%)
Mississippi	18% (11%)	8% (4%)
Alabama	26% (16%)	4% (3%)
Florida	71% (51%)	34% (21%)
Georgia	19% (11%)	2% (1%)
South Carolina	28% (17%)	7% (4%)
North Carolina	44% (28%)	13% (8%)
Virginia	11% (6%)	1% (1%)
Maryland	2% (1%)	<1% (<1%)
Delaware	2% (1%)	<1% (<1%)
New Jersey	2% (1%)	<1% (<1%)
New York	13% (8%)	6% (3%)
Connecticut	12% (7%)	3% (2%)
Rhode Island	10% (6%)	4% (3%)
Massachusetts	12% (7%)	3% (2%)
New Hampshire	2% (1%)	<1% (<1%)
Maine	7% (4%)	<1% (<1%)

Upon quick scrutiny of the table above showing the likelihood of a state being hit by a hurricane or a major hurricane, no wonder the "U" of Miami is the "Hurricanes"!

Have a good week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Watching for Arlene to develop south of Cuba by Sunday night.