Typhoon Songda Recurve to Bring Trough into Eastern US

While we were celebrating the Memorial Day holiday the last few days, a half world away, nature's fury was manifest in Super Typhoon Songda.  At its maximum strength, this storm produced winds ~150 mph and wreaked havoc on Luzon and the Philippines.  This storm, due to interactions of the large Asian landmass and the wind fields produced by it, began to recurve ENE prior to hitting Taiwan and just scraped Honshu Japan.  So why do I tell you this?  When this much energy gets entrained into the earth's atmospheric circulation, the atmosphere must compensate and react to this energy injection.  Hence, this typhoon a half a world away will help change our pattern here in North America bringing much cooler and drier air into the eastern half of the continent.  Below is a satellite image of Super Typhoon Songda.

Below, I circled in red where the "blob" of heat and humidity is being entrained into jet coming off of Asia.  This is what will lead to a pattern change here in North America.  The general rule of thumb is when a major storm recurves east of Asia, about 10 days later a trough will dig into eastern North America. 

The modeling below depicts the energy from the typhoon in the central Pacific, creating much amplification of the long wave pattern such that we in the eastern portion of the US should be seeing a trough digging from O Canada.  The Euro on the left shows quite a trough off the east coast while the American model on the right has a much flatter look, albeit still with NW flow. 

Personally, I believe the look of the Euro with such a strong typhoon adding much energy to the jet stream configuration.  Both models do have yet again another blocky look to them with High up over Greenland.  If this would occur, we would be looking at normal or slightly below normal temps from about June 8th onward.  Unfortunately for agricultural and gardening interests, this is often a dry flow of air as well at this time of the year with only a minimal chance of diurnal storms.  Here is the operational run of the Euro, not the ensembles, for next Thursday.  Note the strong NW flow where the air over PA comes directly from Lake Gitchigomee with the deep trough off the coast into the Atlantic Ocean.

As for the short term, the Storm Prediction Center has us under a slight chance of severe wx for Wednesday afternoon.  I have a gut feeling that the strongest storms and heaviest rain will fall to our east on Wednesday and leaving most of us here in the Harrisburg area looking east at some towering cumulus and not receiving much beneficial rain.  That is my tepid take on the short term weather situation.  We will see in 24 hours.

Hope everyone has a good mid-week.

Smitty

AA:  Typhoon over in Japan will help bring cooler wx to us here in PA ~10 days from now.  I think the bulk of tomorrow's storminess will be to our east.