Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
After perusing all of the latest modeling overnight, it is now becoming clear that a major cyclone should develop and spin up the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts early to middle next week. Although I am now confident a storm will develop, the devil is in the details as to how the sensible weather will evolve from this storm system. I believe that my newly relocated Vermonter friend will get a blanket of white sufficient to remain until their mud season arrives next spring! I sent him a message suggesting that scenario this past Wednesday and was thrilled with the prospect of such an event. Once the storm passes, cold air will wrap in for the remainder of the week. Let me just show you all of the global modeling for the time period late Tuesday afternoon. These will be surface progs...1st the GFS which has finally come around to the other global models that have had some sort of a system for the last several runs...
GFS...it has a 999 mb low over Nantucket...
The Euro...it has a 994 mb just east of LBI...
The O Canadian...it goes a bit wild and really phases the northern branch pulling the storm well inland into New England...probably a bit too much overdone...
The "I'm Turning Japanese" (The Vapors...1980) model...the weakest of the bunch...
And this is how the Brits resolve this North American storm system...a 996 located at the mouth of the Susquehanna...
And for any of you that might have marine interests, here is the pounding surf along the east coast as the storm develops...Cape Cod and points north will be rockin' to be sure...
If time permits, I'll come back and try to hone in on the details, but for us here around KMDT, we are looking at a potential snowfall; however, I believe the snowfall jackpot with this go around will be places from Binghamton to Burlington...gut call from 3-4 days out. Slop storm for us here in the sub-tropics...
OK...gonna roll, but I'll leave you with a tune I just heard the other day that really set my mood for the day..I really do like the Brothers Allman and their unique sound..."Now and then I feel a cold wind blowin' through my achin' bones...I think you'll enjoy...
Enjoy your week's end!
Smitty
AA: Wet Saturday, drying Sunday. Watching the coast for nor'easter development Tuesday-Wednesday.
From the political upheaval on both the state and the federal level to the plunge of oil and ultimately gasoline prices to having a "so close but yet so far" highly improbable intra-district PIAA District 3 AAAA football final, I believe November 2014 will be remembered for its premature winter-like conditions and the upcoming potentially disruptive Thanksgiving storm to cap off the month. Lets take a look...
Sorry...I digress. Now onto the month that is nearly behind us...look at the deviations from normal for the last week and the last 2 weeks! Quite a cold month across the bulk of the nation!
Last 7 days...
Last 14 days...
This November was a real slap in the face as our recent month of October had a nearly opposite look in terms of chill; mostly missing across the CONUS...
And with close scrutiny of the above graphic, the only cool places compared to the norms were FL and the Great Lakes. Remember, the Great Lakes lost their ice from last winter not until very late in the spring; in fact Superior still had ice into June! This kept the lakes cooler than normal which made this lake effect outbreak that Buffalo just experienced even that more impressive! Here is a nice depiction of why Lake Effect occurs...
With the anomalously cold air straight from the arctic along with the near perfect trajectory of the winds over Lake Erie, locations just south of Buffalo NY were rocked with persistent bands of white out conditions complete with thunder and lightning that will be long remembered by those who are hardened winter folk...the below radar loop is about 3/4 of a day! Unreal!
The view from topside was quite awesome as well...compliments of the MODIS (Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer)....
And after this brief warm up Sunday and Monday (let's go for a near record max of 70ºF on Monday), the potential exists for a surge of arctic cold once again to spin up a Thanksgiving storm that will impact the major metros during the busy travel days of Thanksgiving time...of course the devil is in the details, but the Euro has been relatively consistent over its last several runs for the snowfall placement across the Mid-Atlantic and northeast! The map below valid by Wednesday evening...
One thing for sure, cold again will be served as the arctic air is directed towards the lower 48; this time more eastward than the last bout...that is quite a negatively tilted 500 mb trough that should spin up quite a blow along the coast if this skillful Euro model verifies!
So it appears that at the very least this November will end up quite cold for us here in the KMDT region and could be record setting in more ways than one. However, if you think this is the onset of never ending winter weather from now until March...well...it's not! The 1st week or 2 of December look to relax winter's grip...take a look...here's the GFS's 5 day average temps centered on the "Day of Infamy".
OK...that is all...enjoy your Thanksgiving week and what remains of this crazy weather month of November! And as always at this time of year...a great time to reflect on all of our blessings in life. Maybe this Johnny Lang tune will assist you...
Smitty
AA: Record warmth Monday? Rain ends...then watching a potential coastal storm for the Wed-Thursday time period that would likely bring snow here...then quite cold to end the month!
Add another log to the fire...stoke the coals...fire the furnace before Thanksgiving...any and all of these will be heard throughout PA as a bona fide Arctic outbreak will be occurring over the next 2 weeks across most of the eastern 2/3 of the lower 48. In addition, some serious snow pack will begin to be placed across most of O Canada and the northern tier of the US as a somewhat vigorous sub-tropical ridge tries to hold sway across the western Atlantic and create a storm track that will undecidedly have many places with a substantial snow pack prior to Thanksgiving Day! This is all in the name of ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING!
To the maps...1st the next 10 days for temps as per the Euro for KCXY (CapCity Airport since I'm a West Shore kinda guy!)...looks mid-winterish to me! The horizontal red line is freezing.
And now, lets look at 5 day increments of temp...1st for the period ending this Friday evening...and this includes the mild days of today and Veterans Day! Note the ominous "purple" lurking in the northern plains...pointed right at us! Also keep in mind that these graphics are in °C so one can roughly double the numbers to determine °F...
Now the 5 day period ending the 21st...next Friday...
Here is the coldest 5 day period for us here in PA...essentially the next work week...M-F! That is incredible for a FIVE DAY AVERAGE for temps... Brrrr...
The overnight control run of the Euro was quite bullish for snowfall in these parts...
But it has come to its senses with the midday run...looks more reasonable to me, but certainly hinting at some fierce cold for this time of year on tap...
So there you have it...looking as if the cold season will arrive a week or 2 prior to Thanksgiving...hard to believe as we had quite a nice fall to this point in terms of temps and precip...no tropical troubles, no early freezes. In fact, my wife's green thumbs' efforts were still blooming up until the hard freeze we experienced Sunday night. But now we transition quickly to the cold season...with the million dollar question being is this what the winter forebodes or is this just an anomalous cold shot? From all I read, it appears that this cold pattern might be perpetual through the winter months...time will tell. Which means I'll be drinking some cold coffee and cold tea this winter as my ADD kicks in when I'm in a flow state perusing this weather stuff...so I'll leave y'all with a Cowboy Junkies tune...Cold Tea Blues...a nice acoustic bluesy song! Enjoy...
And enjoy your Veterans'/Armistice Day...which coincidentally there was a major blizzard back around the WW II times in the Midwest on this day I believe...but if any of you are interested, simply google it...you don't need to know it to read about it! Oh well...
Smitty
AA: The cold will be large and in charge for the next 2-3 weeks of November in these parts!
Ready or not...here I come! That will be the call of old man winter once he finishes his countdown in about 4-5 days! Not that this morning is anything to sneeze at in terms of temps. With climatology suggesting lows around ~40ºF, take a look at these current temps over our region. It is a nice sky out there right now with a waning gibbous lying right next to Aldebaran, the eye of the bull Taurus!
By the way for you sky-gazers out there, the moon will slowly progress eastward through the zodiac this week and by next weekend will have a nice conjunction lying below the "backwards question mark" and in conjunction with Jupiter in the constellation of Leo! Pretty cool...if you see it...though I should say pretty COLD as per the purpose of this post.
You see, by mid week, the upper level pattern will be so convoluted that the coldest air relative to averages will be in SE O Canada just to our north here in PA. You WILL hear talk of the now infamous "Polar Vortex" diving towards the US once again. This upper level flow regime is being powered by some tropical energy injected way out in the Bering Sea by the phasing of tropical heat/humidity and the polar jet to create quite a surface monster...take a look! This is the GFS' initialization from 7 pm last evening...931 mb cyclone! Wow!
This will send upper level ridging into eastern AK which will in turn drive a trough of lowering heights southwards towards the middle continental US with the lowest heights (coldest/densest air aloft air) lying between James Bay & Lake Superior by Sunday evening.
This will allow warmth to advance ahead of this through the northeast Monday and Tuesday. In fact, if all goes well, Veterans Day should be a rather warm day (70ºF ?? for KMDT anyone, anyone?)...maybe the warmest until next spring the way I see this pattern evolving over the next several weeks. But in the same graphic, note those 26ºF below seasonal norms lurking in the northern plains...getting ready to advect east around the base of the ominous PV!
You can also see above the warmth in AK, but the arctic chill building over most of O Canada. That occurs when the snow cover over the northern hemisphere is near record coverage for this time of year since such types of records began to be kept. Take a look...this map valid Nov 7, 2014.
Here is a table showing both Oct and Sept having the 3 most snow cover in the northern hemisphere for 2014...snow breeds snow and cold! So...uh...Al...how's the globally warmed Arctic Ice Free ocean doing? Just asking...
By the way, the winter of 1976 was a doozy (for those of you who remember) when the greatest amount of snow cover was recorded. The graphic below from the Earth Science Research Lab indicates what that winter (actually the plot I choose was the cold months of November to March 1977) brought in terms of temps....brrrr....
I remember watching "Roots" in January of 1977 with the lead news breaks at the top of each hour warning of Natural Gas shortages and a major spike in NatGas prices due to the severe arctic outbreaks we were experiencing over repeatedly beginning in November 1976. I was also skating on Silver Lake prior to Christmas 1976 thanks to the unleashing of the arctic hounds! Now this "cat" doesn't look too threatening...
Sorry I digress...anyway...most of the US and O Canada will be much below norms come later next week as you can see...
In fact, the snow word will begin to be mentioned...but that is a different story for a different day. I just wanted to give you a "heads-up" that this glancing blow of cold yesterday and this morning is simply a precursor of things to come. Take a look at the snow cover progged by the Euro by the end of a 10 day period...a bit early don't cha think! Snow into NORTH TEXAS! C'mon man...The snow cover located in lee of the Great Lakes and the higher ground/interior of the eastern US looks reasonable to me, however. Time will tell...
OK...I've been wordy enough...I think you get the picture...but if not...Sting can help...enjoy!
Smitty
AA: Cold this am..."normal Sat-Sun", mild Mon-Tues...then winter comes a knockin' into the foreseeable future.
What a month! MLB crowns its champion (Are the Giants a dynasty??); NFL reaches its mid-season (Will the Raiders go 0-16??); NCAA gets its "First Final Four" named (Where's the Vegas fav 'Bama?)...and the weather starts to turn to the roils of winter. In fact, if this pattern continues into the next few months, I anticipate a serious case of sleep deprivation on my part during this upcoming dark season. I mean, look at the depth of this trough swinging through this weekend! Negatively tilted with blocking in front fueled by the upper level energy that dove over the top originating from the central Pacific in the form of what once was Hurricane Ana! Wow!
And the subsequent nor'easter bomb that will slam the east coast this weekend!
For us in the KMDT area, the obvious sensible wx will be the diving cold air first aloft then mixing to the surface by Sunday...look at the temps a mile up with the sub-freezing air diving to "Hot-lanta"!
And giving us what I think will be our first hard freeze of the season under a nudging zone of high pressure Sunday night into Monday am...the Euro doesn't agree with me on this one...I think the modeling is keeping it breezy enough to not allow the cold air to settle...so the challenge is on!
But as you can see, the cold air will quickly vacate and a relatively strong ridge will pop by mid-week with temps pushing back into the 60s by Wednesday...but with the low sun angle at this time of year, it is difficult to remove the stubborn low-level cold. And with each subsequent cold air mass to intrude, each warm-up becomes more and more difficult; hence, the transition into the winter season! Here are the 850 temps for mid-week! That a rather large pool of warmth over the Mid-Atlantic!
Yet another deep trough is progged for next weekend promising even colder air...but that is a different story for a different day! But looking back at Awesome October, here is how it appeared in terms of temps...generally benign nationwide with normalcy over the lakes...and Florida!
For KMDT, we averaged a temp of 57.1ºF which is 2.7 above the norm...last year we averaged 57.4ºF for October for whatever that is worth. But to show you how this week might reflect last week, our coldest temp of the month came last Sunday (30ºF) but our warmest max temp came 3 days later (78ºF)! October was a bit drier than the norm by 0.84"...So what is ahead? Here is the current prog for November...
Looks like the modeling is hinting at a ridge in the west; a trough in the east with a storm track up the spine of the Appalachians as seen by this progged precip!
So as we head into November and the PIAA football playoff season, cool and damp looks to be the rule. Congrats to both CD and East on their 8-2 regular season campaigns and we wish them well as they venture into the D3 playoffs next week. How neat would that be to see these 2 meet again in Hershey a few weeks down the road? Stranger things have happened...just sayin'...
Enjoy your week's end!
Smitty
AA: A cold and blustery weekend followed by a brief warm up mid-week. October was warm and dry...November looks to be cooler and damper...its about 110 days until pitchers and catchers report!
I simply felt compelled to share my experience over the last 24 hours concerning my perceptions of the natural world and the reactions of humanity towards what I personally feel is the awesomeness of our maker. Let me explain...
The above multiple exposure is clearly of this morning's lunar eclipse that in our part of the world was visible roughly from 6:00 am until one lost sight of the moon due to earth's rotation of ~800 mph at our latitude! Buckle up! As many of my close friends and acquaintances are aware, I routinely attend the neighborhood gym prior to reporting to my workplace. Believe it or not, there is quite an attendance at my hour of departure; numerous patrons both coming and going. Upon my departure, I noticed a man and woman simply standing at the side of the building gazing westward towards our partially eclipsed moon. It was refreshing to see and to what would be absolutely no surprise to my wife, I struck up a very brief, but meaningful conversation about our observations. Many people in pursuit of their hurried lives simply glanced and moved on; others oblivious to the astronomical anomaly, but several others stopped, stood, and stared at the picturesque skygazing opportunity. At one point, there was upwards of 20 people looking at the western horizon. I stayed until the moon fell behind a grove of trees that obscured my view; however, only another 5 minutes remained until the moon would fall below the horizon. Off to coffee and then to work...
I was very disappointed with myself as I had dropped the ball on 2 fronts! A: I actually forgot about this celestial syzygy early in the day prior where I could alert some students and...B: I kind of "blew it off" since I felt quite confident that the morning would dawn cloudy, damp and overcast from a shortwave rotating around the deep upper level low that has been stubborn to leave central O Canada!
But as you can see, the skies cleared quickly following the general 0.25" area-wide rainfall. Note the front well off the NJ coast...what a progressive wx pattern!
Upon arrival at my workplace, I shared little about what I just experienced...but one co-worker was like a kid in a candy store! Excitement experienced by adults woefully way too little! He shared photos of the event and even noted the very shallow ground fog that was able to form in his neighborhood hollow due to the clear skies and overnight rainfall. Trust me, his photo was FAR BETTER than this...
Then... a tad later and then throughout the day...others with various amounts of excitement shared similar observations of what they had witnessed early this Wednesday morning! It was refreshing to see! The graphic below shows that we here in the Harrisburg area were able to see the moon approach the greatest eclipsed state prior to moonset...
Many asked about the color...the red is best explained IMO by the following scenario I both read and listened to over the years...picture yourself on the moon looking back at the earth as the sun slowly disappears behind the earth. As the sun fades behind the earth, its relentless radiation is still trying to get to the lunar surface. However, it must bend around and through the earth's atmosphere where the longer reddish colored waves of the visible spectrum are able to continue on their merry way; all the way to the moon and beyond to...wherever...So, as a lunar observer, you are simply witnessing all of the sunrises and sunsets that are occurring on the big blue marble at the time of eclipse maximum. Red sky at night...red sky in the morning...Simply awe-inspiring...don't cha think?
Sorry this was ex-post facto...but felt that I had to share my experiences from all walks of life today noting they either appreciated, were totally awe inspired, totally unaware of, or could simply take it or leave it...It was just neat to experience! As will be the Orioles advancing to the World Series...and that is not ex-post facto; this is my fearless forecast for the ALCS! LET's GO Os!
I'll leave you with one of my favorites...ECLIPSE...from Pink Floyd's 1973 Dark Side of the Moon album ...enjoy...
Smitty
AA: It was quite a view this early morning; seeing the lunar eclipse and then thinking about all of what has to perfectly align...seeing how people reacted...and reflecting on the awesomeness of unmoved maker (mover)!
I've recently had more than a handful of people ask what this upcoming winter might have in store in light of what we experienced last winter and this past summer. As most of you are quite aware, this past summer (June-July-August) was noticeably below the 30 year norms...take a look.
July was the month were the deviations from the climatological means was the greatest for the eastern part of the US. Note however a large portion of eastern Europe and Scandinavia was quite warm during that time. But with the upper level ridge and subsequent warm surface temps in western O Canada, the cooler than normal temps teleconnect nicely here in the east.
And the cool has continued into September in spite of a very warm 1st week of the month...we here in PA have been getting bouts of cool from the Lakes as well as pushes of heat and humidity from the SE. The dry ground in the far western US and CA have really fed back into heating the surface quite efficiently!
Look at the droughty conditions currently being experienced in the the west!
However, it appears that October might actually show some signs of above normal temps but not too anomalously warm...this looks a bit too widespread for all of this verify. But the dry ground out west should be a lock for yet another warm month as per the pattern.
The Euro seems to think the warmth will actually come in the latter part of October as its ensembles cool the CONUS the first full week of October.
But its 30 day run looks like this for the last week of the month in terms of 850 temps...
In the not so distant future, I'll show you the analogs of the years many forecasters are using to pick up on atmospheric trends for this upcoming winter. By noting the oceanic oscillations around the globe, these talented forecasters are able to hone into a pattern recognition that often verifies from noting what has transpired in the past. Although not a guarantee, often the sensible weather does play out at the surface as per the analog years. But that is a different story for a different day. Here is the LATEST SINGLE run of the US generated climate model for the upcoming winter...doesn't look too hard to take now does it. However, this will flip flop around like a fish out of water until more definitive inputs allow it solve the pattern closer to the target dates...
Personally, where this model has the warmest temps in the US, I believe it might end up being the coldest! Remember the general rule of thumb; when it is warm in Alaska, it is cold in the eastern 1/3 of the US!
OK, now onto the month of, in my opinion, some excellent sport opportunities...NCAA football in full swing, NFL getting into the meat of its schedule, the start of the marathon NHL season, and of course postseason MLB! Here's looking forward to...
...and the epic new MLB storyline...
Enjoy your week's end!
Smitty
AA: It was a cool summer and Sept has been to some extent as well. But October might just break the cool trend...hoping the Os can get hot and win 11 more this month too!
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