Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
Ghoulish cool will rule for the remainder of October...at least if you buy into the GFS! These temps will be more like late November/early December than late October. It will be cold for sure next weekend in St. Louis when Games 3 & 4 are played in the nation's mid-section.
Again, although not always, but far more often than not, when large cyclones "re-curve" east along the Asian coast, this drives heat poleward which then displaces colder polar air southward over the central and eastern part of North American ~ 10 days into the future...and there is not only one, but 2 "re-curving" typhoons in the western Pacific...one is of real concern to Tokyo, Japan!
As for closer to home, enjoy today's temps as they will be a distant memory in the not so distant future...
Here is the same 850 mb temperature map for Friday Night Lights! That is quite the deep trough over the eastern US! There will be freezes all the way into the deep south this weekend and next week as well.
It appears that both Friday morning and Saturday morning will bring a hard freeze to the KMDT with clear skies assuming the winds go light to calm. This looks like the clearest of sky cover over the 5 days which would allow for much radiational cooling to take place prior to sunrise Friday morning.
Lake Effect snow will be flying as well in the lee of the lakes as once again, ~20ºC difference in temps between the lakes and a mile up should crank the snow guns south and east of the Great Lakes! Here is the current temps of the lakes (now that the site is up and running again!)...
OK...gotta run. Autumnal is the word for the remainder of October. And pumpkin is the choice of flavoring many of my favorites at this time of year!
Enjoy the autumnal week!
Smitty
AA: Turning much cooler...or should I say colder by Wednesday! Grass cutting coming to an end!
Earlier this week, I was subjected to this infamous picture which became the calling card for all of the Anthropogenic Global Warming crowd (AGW) and subsequently asked to evaluate whether the statements concerning said picture were argumentative or rather persuasive to the GW agenda. It was ironic that a couple of days later, I shared an article concerning the explosion of the diagnosis of ADHD and a critique of the content of the somewhat balanced editorial was "Very scary how agendas can trump science this day in age and brute force of will determines truth, rather than challenged empirical evidence". Pure genius! So one of my colleagues suggested that I "just write about it"...well maybe the big boy should be careful what he wished for!
In the classic propaganda flick where Al Gore (y'all know Al, the inventor of the Internet) earned millions by spewing fear and terror suggesting that many dramatic weather and climatic events were on the cusp of occurring. Of course, the main stream media continues to perpetuate this myth by glorifying any and all anomalous wx events, in their singularity, no matter how mundane or routine they truly are when COMPARED TO RECORDED PAST events! Hurricane/"Superstorm" Sandy is a classic example. Sure, it was one for the record books; but to call it unprecedented is an outright lie. Memories are short...how about the "Long Island Express"of 1938...devastating to Long Island, NYC, and New England and with lower pressure!
Or the 1821 Norfolk Nasty...same...
It's happened before...and, oh yeah, it WILL happen again! But this year, where was the tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin? 2 short lived Cat 1 storms; that's it! TWO! We were lead to believe that there would be numerous severe hurricanes wreaking havoc along the Gulf and East Coasts annually. Well? Here is a numerical depiction of the total tropical cyclone energy in the Atlantic over the years; be honest and note the cycles. Also, as technology and measurements improve, so will the ACE in theory. We are now monitoring storms in the open Atlantic, 1000s of miles from any land mass whereas back in the day, well, not so much!
More severe wx will strike the US! Not this year! Lowest number of tornadoes in quite awhile!
The Arctic Ice will be totally gone by 2013...NOT! Not even close to the melt off of 2012, in which there was still ample Arctic Ice...
And note the record S. Hemisphere ice...doesn't want to melt!
Heat will be extreme and record breaking...oh yeah? The US reporting stations missed that memo this past summer! Note the heat, however, during the great "Dust-Bowl" Days!
Due to extreme heat, western wildfires will ravish the landscape. Not happening as evidenced by the National Interagency Fire Center...here is their data...
Crop yields will be greatly diminished by drought and heat stress...I'm just using corn as an example as the corn plant is very INTOLERANT to lack of water and high heat as what Al the AGW guru suggested would be the mainstay of wx conditions in the corn belt of the USA by now!
Wow! Corn must like GW! OK...I've ranted long enough, and I think most of you know how I feel about this AGENDA DRIVEN ideology anyway. This really sums up my thoughts: from Ecclesiastes 1...
What do people gain from all their labors
at which they toil under the sun?
Generations come and generations go,
but the earth remains forever.
The sun rises and the sun sets,
and hurries back to where it rises.
The wind blows to the south
and turns to the north;
round and round it goes,
ever returning on its course.
All streams flow into the sea,
yet the sea is never full.
To the place the streams come from,
there they return again.
What has been will be again,
what has been done will be done again;
there is nothing new under the sun.
And come mid-week this week, many of you will be wishing for global warmth as the feel of late autumn will be invading these parts...here is the Euro's depiction of the 850 mb temps by Wed. pm...huge Lake Effect outbreak in Michigan is a given if this verifies...the UPers will be in their glory!
I'll get back to y'all later on the upcoming wx this week, but I believe Monday will be the last mild day of this autumn season as a turn to a general trough over the central and eastern US will lead to below normal temps for sometime to come...and the norms are decreasing rather rapidly at this point! By the way, congrats to the teams and coaches from both East High and CD for nice wins again on the gridiron last evening! East has a tough one next week vs Chambersburg; CD better not look past Carlisle for the regular season finale vs the sister school. That last week will be intriguing!
OK...off to PF to really wake me up for my upcoming Saturday. Hope y'all enjoy your weekend...and as always, thanks for humoring me by reading this Argument or Persuasion? I'll let Tommy James and The Shondells decide...
Enjoy the week's end! Smitty AA: A rant on man-induced global warming. But it will be getting cooler mid-week...MUCH cooler!
It really doesn't get much better than this synoptically for a coastal storm to develop and then sit and spin off the Mid-Atlantic coast for a few days. ALL, and I do mean ALL of the ingredients came together to deliver copious amounts of rain to the Lower Susquehana Valley. A vast high pressure system to the north, deep tropical moisture from the Gulf (Karen remnants), deep tropical moisture from the tropical Atlantic, low level vorticity from what once was TS Karen, and a cutoff upper 500 mb low over the central Appalachians, anomalously warm waters off the Mid-Atlantic coast, and a strong 700 mb-850 mb jet driving in mid-level moisture from the warm ocean, and finally the low level air upsloping the Piedmont to rain out over the KMDT region! I'll try to show some of this...1st, here is the visible satellite of this Coastal Crawler as of midday Friday. Note the "eye" just east of the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay.
Below is a satellite view of the Atlantic this past Monday. In blue is the remnants of Karen; both spin and moisture. Off to the east is deep tropical moisture from the very warm tropical Atlantic. Thanks to the weak upper air pattern, these 2 decided to get together and create the Coastal Crawler! For those of you who recall, this was the front that passed through and gave us 0.75" rain Monday. The old frontal boundary also aided in the development of this storm!
As for the warm oceans...note the anomalous warmth off the Delmarva!
As for the mid-level jet, look at the initialization of the Euro...look at that fire hose, that starts out around Bermuda, pointing right at KMDT! Unreal! When this happens in the Pacific, and heavy rains fall in Cali, it is known as the "Pineapple" connection. What would we connect with in Bermuda?? I was even thinking...if this were a winter set-up, that jet is so strong and so long that if this were a no-doubt about it snow storm, at the height of the storm, the precip would switch to sleet with the mid-levels warming to above freezing with the ocean air!
High pressure...ok...here is that current map! Look at that huge dome (1032 mb) centered over Quebec ridging south and west and east blocking the Coastal Crawler from...well...even crawling!
So now we have the perfect set-up for the perfect storm. As for the upsloping; well, sea-level to 500' and then some in many places above sea level with an easterly flow spells trouble with all of the above in place. That's why the rain has come...and will stay yet for a little while...here is the official call from NOAA for the next 6 hours...
And the current 24 hour total derived by radar...would not be surprised to see some purple show up when all is said and done! As of 1 pm...these are quick additions...York Airport: just under 8", Cap City ~7.5", KMDT: just over 7", Smitty: same...Sky Hawk: can't tell since his gauge overflowed early this am at 5", as did my buddy from New Cumberland, the Captain from days long past, and my Bro down in Lanco. What is it with you guys...get larger gauges or get out there and dump prior to overflow! Seriously, I love the obs being sent my way...keep them coming!
I don't want an ob from my Hummelstown connection telling me about a severely flooding Swatty. Here is the latest for it...
And the Breeches for the West Shore clientele...
And finally for you "River Rats"...
Speaking of "Rats" enjoy this Grateful Dead song concerning rats of a different variety...if you have 9 minutes, just let the song play in the background; it really is very good!
OK...gotta run and monitor my wet basement. The rain has picked up in its intensity once again, and there is still ample moisture advecting this direction! Remember, that swath of rain is moving from east towards the west! Ouch...
Enjoy your week's end! Stay dry...
Smitty
AA: Lots of rain...I know...No $&#!...but still not over...might see some brightening by Sunday pm...but not too much! Lawn mowing warning for next week!
As now the modeling has depicted for the last several runs, a coastal crawler will slowly meander in the Mid-Atlantic for several days creating rather damp and dreary conditions right through the week's end. The timing is not good for most as this is the lone fall holiday weekend in celebration of the discovery of the new world...quickly evolving into the present old world...but I digress and will refrain further from any political commentary. Here is the Euro temps and precip for the next 10 days...a solid 3.5" rain filled time...and temps remaining in the 50s for some time! Rainy and raw...
The Mid-Atlantic precip map shows a wider view of the Euro's bullish precip amounts...through Monday morn...
...and a day by day analysis of the Euro starting today in the upper left panel and ending Sunday in the lower right panel...
The GFS, while not as wet, is still showing plenty of precip in these parts...
But maybe the real wx worry will lie with beach interests as the tight pressure gradient will slam the coast with gales from Long Island to Hatteras for a prolonged period...look at the peak wave activity as shown by the Wave Watch model...
...oh yeah, that's right...non-essential....sorry, but I digressed once again! Trust me, big water along the coast this weekend with a long, stiff NE fetch! But the wx in St. Louis tomorrow evening will be awesome for the Pirates to clinch the NLDS and move onto the NLCS vs the Dodgers! Clear skies and temps falling through the low 60s during the division series clinching game! Go Bucs!
OK...gotta roll and listen to the A's clinching game over the Tigers! Enjoy this all-time baseball classic!
And enjoy your mid-week!
Smitty
AA: Looks like rain will be a main-stay Wed pm through the weekend!
This week will play out in a very similar fashion as this week that just past. There is one fly in the ointment, however, and that could lead to a rather damp Saturday if the east coast hybrid develops like both the GFS and the Euro suggest. In fact, both are in remarkably good agreement from this time frame, so I am worried that our wx could get a little "mucky" come this weekend. Here...take a look at the sea level pressures progged by both the GFS...
...and the EURO...
A strong NE wind will be blasting the NJ and Delmarva coasts and if the storm strengthens to any degree, rain will get driven westward into our region by Friday at some point...so maybe the windows will be down for Friday night lights? Just sayin'...
As for the rain tomorrow, there will be plenty. Most will fall in the daylight hours between 8 am and 4 pm. Showers will linger I believe until after sunset...However, the threat of a flooding rain is becoming less likely as the true remnants of TS Karen will stay south and east of PA. Thus, totals of ~1-1.5" should be realized as opposed to the 2-3" I thought possible yesterday. Here is the official prog from WPC...
Here is the map as per WPC for Monday afternoon...note that the remnants of Karen are well south of PA and delivering its deep moisture to places in the mountains of GA, SC, and NC.
That's not to say that we will not get heavy rain! Our air mass in place is quite warm and humid as evidenced by the current "real-feel" temps!
Once the front and its rains move through Monday evening, high pressure will rule the roost for the remainder of the week. Wednesday morning should be our coolest morning so far as a huge dome of high pressure will support radiational cooling well into sunrise Wed am...
By the way, look at the current snow cover over the western US where the storm moved this weekend!
And how the temps reacted to the cold from below...
But in these parts, it's been a very warm start to October! Look at this graphic...wow! And this week will have a deep trough into the west with a warm ridge in the east!
I'm just hoping that the Pirates stay as hot as air masses have been that have been visiting Pittsburgh! Go Bucs! Also hoping I see more of this...
OK...gotta roll and get my pre-game face on for a pivotal Game 3 Pittsburgh...this will undoubtedly be part of the festivities...good music from many artists, Iron City included! Hope you like...
Enjoy your much needed and beneficial rainy Monday...
Smitty
AA: Hoping the Bucs win today...oh yeah, and ~1" rain on Monday...maybe a tad more....
How about a little of both? Just depends where you fancy your wx tastes this glorious October morn! How about a tropical menace approaching the central Gulf coast? Or a raging blizzard in the northern plains? Not feisty enough? Does the thrill of tornado chasing catch your fancy? Well, that could be your Saturday in the Mississippi Valley. Personally, for now anyway, I prefer this late season taste of summer! Look at these current temps...
And the current dew points to accompany this taste of late summer here in the Mid-Atlantic & Miss Valley.
However, upon a wider view, you can clearly note the advancing cold season as noted in the 24 hr temp change over the inter-mountain region of the US.
A very large, deep and powerful mid-latitude cyclone is advecting this taste of early winter south and east as seen on the early Saturday surface map...
As this front pushed into the warmer and much more unstable air mass ahead of it in the mid Missouri and upper Miss Valley late Friday, nasty storms developed producing numerous supercell thunderstorms and tornado formation. Here are the preliminary reports from yesterday...
Note the correlation of the front, the 24 hour temp change, and the severe reports! North and west of the storm's center, early winter is being manifested in the form of a fall blizzard. This is a rather common event for the northern plains in the transition seasons as the air masses battle for control for their representative season! How about waking to the the potential of 12-18" of windswept whiteness? That's what the NAM says should occur!
And the wx system to ultimately affect our region looks rather innocuous in this IR satellite pic of the nation this Saturday morning. Aw, but, great things come in small packages...and look at that mesoscale system we call a tropical storm in the Gulf.
TS Karen will slowly meander with an ever so slightly increased strength prior to making landfall in the Delta Blues country. Technically, the center may stay just far enough offshore that it really never makes "landfall". And for what it's worth, there's not too much land in that part of LA from what I observed anyway...but Karen's effects will be felt especially in the heart of SEC Country later Saturday into Sunday. Here is the NWS official prog for early Tuesday as the remnant low pressure becomes absorbed in the approaching cold front from the center portion of the continent. In the wake of Karen, high pressure will slide SE into the deep south.
A week from now, the 2 highs in the map above will join forces and ridge another spell of beautiful early fall wx right over PA! Yes, the windows will be open next Friday guys and it will actually be more comfortable as opposed to the what felt like the 1st week of the season last evening!
Here is the WPC's official QPF forecast for the next 5 days. I've seen these scenarios numerous times over the years and I just have a "gut feeling" that an easy 2-3" rainstorm is in store for us starting as showers sometime Monday and falling quite heavily overnight into early Tuesday morning. Where the heaviest bands of precip set up is any body's guess right now, but the Piedmont of PA often gets soaked with these joining forces of the north country and tropics.
By the way...and sorry I digress...but go Bucs!
OK...'nuff said...gotta go prepare for my Saturday and wake up at PF. There are so many potential tunes to leave you with but since I mentioned the "North Country" just above, I'll leave you with one of my wife's favs...Johnny Cash coupled with Bob Dylan...I hope you enjoy as much as she!
And enjoy your week's end!
Smitty
AA: Heavy rain Monday night (2-3" possibly). Lawn mowing warning for later next week!
