Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
How about a little of both? Just depends where you fancy your wx tastes this glorious October morn! How about a tropical menace approaching the central Gulf coast? Or a raging blizzard in the northern plains? Not feisty enough? Does the thrill of tornado chasing catch your fancy? Well, that could be your Saturday in the Mississippi Valley. Personally, for now anyway, I prefer this late season taste of summer! Look at these current temps...
And the current dew points to accompany this taste of late summer here in the Mid-Atlantic & Miss Valley.
However, upon a wider view, you can clearly note the advancing cold season as noted in the 24 hr temp change over the inter-mountain region of the US.
A very large, deep and powerful mid-latitude cyclone is advecting this taste of early winter south and east as seen on the early Saturday surface map...
As this front pushed into the warmer and much more unstable air mass ahead of it in the mid Missouri and upper Miss Valley late Friday, nasty storms developed producing numerous supercell thunderstorms and tornado formation. Here are the preliminary reports from yesterday...
Note the correlation of the front, the 24 hour temp change, and the severe reports! North and west of the storm's center, early winter is being manifested in the form of a fall blizzard. This is a rather common event for the northern plains in the transition seasons as the air masses battle for control for their representative season! How about waking to the the potential of 12-18" of windswept whiteness? That's what the NAM says should occur!
And the wx system to ultimately affect our region looks rather innocuous in this IR satellite pic of the nation this Saturday morning. Aw, but, great things come in small packages...and look at that mesoscale system we call a tropical storm in the Gulf.
TS Karen will slowly meander with an ever so slightly increased strength prior to making landfall in the Delta Blues country. Technically, the center may stay just far enough offshore that it really never makes "landfall". And for what it's worth, there's not too much land in that part of LA from what I observed anyway...but Karen's effects will be felt especially in the heart of SEC Country later Saturday into Sunday. Here is the NWS official prog for early Tuesday as the remnant low pressure becomes absorbed in the approaching cold front from the center portion of the continent. In the wake of Karen, high pressure will slide SE into the deep south.
A week from now, the 2 highs in the map above will join forces and ridge another spell of beautiful early fall wx right over PA! Yes, the windows will be open next Friday guys and it will actually be more comfortable as opposed to the what felt like the 1st week of the season last evening!
Here is the WPC's official QPF forecast for the next 5 days. I've seen these scenarios numerous times over the years and I just have a "gut feeling" that an easy 2-3" rainstorm is in store for us starting as showers sometime Monday and falling quite heavily overnight into early Tuesday morning. Where the heaviest bands of precip set up is any body's guess right now, but the Piedmont of PA often gets soaked with these joining forces of the north country and tropics.
By the way...and sorry I digress...but go Bucs!
OK...'nuff said...gotta go prepare for my Saturday and wake up at PF. There are so many potential tunes to leave you with but since I mentioned the "North Country" just above, I'll leave you with one of my wife's favs...Johnny Cash coupled with Bob Dylan...I hope you enjoy as much as she!
And enjoy your week's end!
Smitty
AA: Heavy rain Monday night (2-3" possibly). Lawn mowing warning for later next week!
But tropical storms do! And I believe that we will finally snap out of this prolonged dry spell and with some ummph! This unseasonably warm start to October will help create this natural boundary for the remnants of Karen to traipse NE through Appalachia and deliver a 2-3" rainfall next Monday into Tuesday. First, take a look at the 1st 2 days of October...and this anomalous warmth will only be continuing through the weekend! We've had a slight NW wind the last few days, and the warmth has been delivered from O Canada!
And the Euro...which y'all know I like even with some of its quirks, says early next week will be very wet here at KCXY! Temps will also be trending back to norms...or slightly above once the ground dries out again.
Without the tropical influence, this passing frontal boundary would give nothing but a few passing sprinkles...You can see the approaching front as per the GFS by Sunday am...I believe the tropical system will be slightly slower and more westward than depicted below...note where the isobars are bending SW through western OH...this is the approximate frontal position.
But with the tropical moisture feed up the spine of the Appalachians in conjunction conjunction what's your function, sorry I digressed to Schoolhouse Rock, ample rainfall should fall in these parts next Monday! Here is the GFS for Monday pm...
And here is the Euro showing the same time parameter...clearly the Euro has the stormiest wx already through PA and up into New England at this time period...
Here's the O' Canadian...much slower...averaging the 3, I believe Monday daytime will be a wet time in these parts...
But not white like this run of the NAM for the Black...soon to be white...Hills of SD! That's the cold air pressing slowly east for our little wx fun next Monday...
OK...gotta go root on the Bucs! Have a good feeling about the Pirates taking care of business against the Cards...just kinda like their chances in the NLDS!
Enjoy your Friday and unseasonably WARM and somewhat humid week's end!
Smitty
AA: Looking for a good rain event on Monday after another warm and dry 3 days!
In analyzing the visible satellite pic this Saturday morning, many meteorological phenomena can be discerned. 1st look at north central PA and western NY...the fog that developed in the dendritic drainage tributaries of the major drains in that region. Clear skies allowed the air temp to drop sufficiently for saturation to occur over the moisture laden air over the streams...pretty cool, huh? Or how about the N-S cloud line that marks the 1-2 mile wide Hudson River north of the Big Apple. It too indicates a vast area of low clouds in the vicinity of the major river known as the Hudson. Or the expansive area of cloudiness in the south central PA region and the piedmont of MD and VA. Upsloping air, and therefore enhanced cooling air, from the east wind emanating over the warm Atlantic has created this stratoculumlus cloud deck that we have awoken to this Saturday. The clouds over the Delmarva are simply a result of the marine layer air advecting westward onto the land. Did I ever say a picture is worth 1000 words?
The surface analysis clearly indicates large and in charge high pressure ridging over the eastern US. However, the low level easterly air flow has done its dirty work to moisten the air and the upsloping of the air combined with radiational cooling overnight has led to this potentially stubborn cloud deck we see this morn. The easterly flow was clearly evident last evening in Colonial Park as the freshly grilled grub and the smoke from the process did not grace our press box as the subtle east air flow moved the food scents away from our olfactory and over towards the visitors' side. In addition, a glorious sunset was noted by my colleagues a few minutes past kickoff last evening at "The Speedway".
The only real excitement in the nest several days in terms of the wx is this ocean storm that should be monitored and will ultimately become quite the "Hybrid Howler" as it strengthen both baroclinitically and develop tropical warm core characteristics as it feeds back upon its own convection thanks to the very warm oceans at this time of year in the north Atlantic. The Canadian model is by far the strongest and here is the prog for late Monday evening...
This graphic shows the ocean's churning surface as a result of this atmospheric disturbance...but this model is US generated and the GFS' storm is not as feisty as seen above. There is also quite the gale center over by western Europe...
Once this storm lifts slowly NE, our wx will be dominated by yet more 500 mb ridging as seen by the Euro...this is a dry WNW flow over PA...
But once past next week, the Euro and all of the global models for that matter are stuggling with consistency. Often, that is indicative of a pattern change, but it is too early to ascertain anything in terms of a major upheaval of the pattern 10 days out. Example, here is yesterday afternoon's run of the Euro 500 mb for later next weekend...
Now, here is the latest run for about the same time period...it's not nearly as bullish in phasing the 2 jets as seen above. Clearly, it holds back the closed low over the Red River Valley while the NE enjoys another glorious autumn weekend. So which is correct? I wish I could give you a more definitive answer. I know a few of you would want my opinion as to how all of this will transpire so they could prepare for the EXACT OPPOSITE atmospheric conditions. Y'all know, I love ya, man....
With all of that said, I will continue to monitor the evolving situation...but for now, keep that freshly seeded grass watered, be careful with any and all outdoor fires, and enjoy this fine stretch of benign autumnal wx. After all, we've been soaked in these parts over the last several Septembers and Octobers...normally our driest "warm season"months without any tropical influences! The September peak is due to visitors from the tropics in these parts. The map is compliments of the USGS...if you look closely enough, the CC estate could be clearly marked near the center of the map!
In closing, I simply have to comment on what I thought was an absolutely fabulous closing for the home town crew for the all-time saves leader in MLB. I frankly don't believe that record will ever be touched. Yankee fan or not, baseball fan or not, the true heart-felt emotions spilled forth from Mo knowing that his career of choice and desire is coming to a close. Personally, it would've been nice had only Jeter gone out to the mound; however, pitchers have that fraternity where position players would as well. It was one of the awesome MOments in sports that simply do not occur nearly enough. And, oh, by the way, he pitched a clean 1.1 innings to help his team once again! Take the time to watch if you haven't done so already, and I think you'll agree.
Enjoy your NCAA Saturday...and I believe LSU will win outright in GA; so the 3.5 points are a bonus!
Have a great week's end!
Smitty
AA: Clouds will be stubborn today...but it will remain dry through the week. Monitoring next weekend for pattern change.
Our spectacular spell of wx will continue into the foreseeable future! Look at the meteogram from the Euro for Harrisburg for the next 10 days. Be sure to note the vertical axis...as it is indicating only 0.04" of rain in tote for the next 10 days. Also note the increasing temps as we progress into October as the dry ground and lack of precip continue to allow for the insolation of the fading sun to work its magic on our little place on the planet.
After that copious 0.015" Saturday???, I'm not seeing the likelihood of rainfall for the next 10 days! Here is the Euro showing a ridge building over the central & eastern US to spur our spell of wonderful fall wx...the little "glitch" of an upper low off the east coast should simply fade NNE into the Atlantic and have minimal effects over the coastal communities of New England and the maritimes of O Canada.
The ridge strengthens into the end of next week as seen below...
In fact, the 5 day mean for the 500 mb heights is anomalously high for this time of year through days 6-10! If you like warm days, cool nights, and dry wx, well, that below was drawn for you!
So unless you have immediate interests in the northern Rockies where Mule Creek, Montana seems to be the recipient of the greatest snowfall from the onset of the cold season, your wx concerns are minimal! Take a look at the obs over the last several hours at Mule Creek, MT!
Which leads me to this wonderful ditty from John Denver...Wild Montana Skies. I hope you enjoy it as much as I!
And enjoy the week's end...I do believe Saturday will be splendid, spectacular, and scintillating!
Smitty
By the way, isn't it nice to say goodbye to Bud? I'd vote for Brian McCann for commish! Just sayin'...
It is now quite evident that today will dawn mostly cloudy and the wx conditions in the central and eastern portions of PA will deteriorate throughout the day. There will be no way to escape the progressive line of showers and some embedded heavier thundershowers from a trailing cold front that emanates from a deep cyclone over eastern O Canada. First, take a look at the radar returns as seen early this Saturday morning...
Note the yellows embedded within the wider line of rain. In fact, WPC has become more bullish on a heavier and a wider spread rainfall as noted in their QPF graphic for today...
These heavier showers and storms do have the potential to "train"; that is to move over the same places repeatedly as the entire front advances from W to E. Also note the connection of this line of rain to the deep tropics. In addition, the IR pic will also verify this moisture feed as seen below...
On the satellite pic, you can see the deep storm located over Hudson Bay as well as the vast area of cloud free skies over the prairie provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan. I always liked saying that province and its capitol of Saskatoon! Here is the synoptic map for early Saturday over North America.
That modest double barreled high will strengthen as it ridges SE and be anchored over the eastern part of North America for the bulk of this upcoming week. The upper air pattern suggests an "Omega Block" as the steering winds aloft represent the Greek letter omega. Take a look at the 500 mb prog as noted by the Euro ensembles for Tuesday...note the anomalously high pressures over eastern O Canada that will tend to block normal progression of wx systems across North America for most of next week. So, once we get rid of this rain today, another string of spectacular autumnal wx is in store for these parts for many days to come.
Even as late as next Friday, upper air ridging will be in place keeping any tropical troubles well off to our south and east. Most modeling suggests the area of disturbed wx presently in the Gulf of Mexico will gradually meander across the northern gulf and eventually spin up into "fish storm" over the central Atlantic as this upcoming week progresses. Here is the Euro's depiction of the 500 mb level for late next week...
So, with all of that said, many asked about the short term in my travels yesterday...that is, when will it begin to rain on Saturday? Here is the most recent run of the HRRR model which frankly does a nice job in near term...it shows the band of rain on the doorstep by 2 pm or so today...
So get out there by noon or so, and I would think you'll be dry. All bets are off for the anytime afternoon. But do take time to peruse this post and listen to this unique blues ditty about city rains to our south...sort of...
Enjoy your weekend and the string of pristine wx again next week.
Smitty
AA: Rain for Saturday afternoon. Improving conditions Sunday and then a string of some more fall beauties in terms of the wx next week!
Deep tropical moisture will advect northeast along an advancing cold front over the weekend and potentially deliver some fairly heavy rains in our area Saturday afternoon and evening. Here is the water vapor image as seen Friday afternoon as the remnants of the tropical system Manuel has juiced up the air over TX and now moving NE...
The model below is the High Resolution NAM that shows the 4 hour of radar reflectivity over our region for later Saturday afternoon and evening. There are some rather potent returns indicated for tomorrow...
In addition, the advancing cold front will have some rather feisty upper air dynamics creating even more lift and forcing for allowing greater precipitation to develop over central PA. Take a look at the winds around a half mile up tomorrow midday...
Thus, the models are printing out over an inch of liquid sunshine for most of PA during the period Saturday!
The newly named WFC (as opposed to my older school HPC) isn't quite as bullish with the rainfall as I believe there will be more than depicted in their graphic. That deep tropical moisture will likely do its dirty work and deliver the plentiful rainfall. The map below is total rain for Friday 8 pm until Sunday 8 pm.
But rest assured, high pressure will once again give us another spell of wonderful autumnal wx for the beginning of next week. In all honesty, later Sunday shouldn't be too bad either...
Enjoy your week's end...and your new Apple iOS 7 software!
I'll leave you with one of my favs from one of my favs as it is quite timely for this week...especially earlier in the week! I hope you enjoy...
Smitty
AA: Nearly an 1" of rain Saturday followed by yet more nice autumnal wx. Enjoy your "Harvest Moon".
A very quick post to show y'all that there is a potential tropical system in the making the will affect the Gulf and east coasts from later this weekend into the middle of next week. First, here is the tropical model showing the potential wind swath path over the next 5 days or so...
And the snapshot locations as per the various models...1st the tropical WRF...
The GFS for next Tuesday late pm...
And the King Euro...although it has been very inconsistent over its last several runs!
OK...gotta go...STAY TUNED!
Smitty
AA: Potential tropical system for the middle of next week in these parts.
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