Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
Hey...it's the FIRST SATURDAY IN MAY! That means none other than weddings and DERBY DAY! Carpe Diem (2) on top of Upstart (19) and Frosted (15)...go ahead, box 'em up and tell me Sunday morning how your ebet account has fared...ha! Just trying to get a heartbeat utilizing yet another tactic as opposed to the mundane workout routine of "long, slow cardio".
OK...onto the weather. As I mentioned last week, warm air is on the move. This upcoming week looks to be quite warm in these parts as shown by the GFS averaging the next 5 days.
For many, this will be welcomed as the last 10 days of April have been quite cool east of the Mississippi with the lone exception of Florida...
And with the warmth comes "summer-like" weather as eyes will be focused off the SE coast with the development of POSSIBLY our 1st named tropical system of the year. Not thinking this will earn a name or even should, but seeing that it is forming over abnormally warm waters off the FL-GA coast with a closed circulation cut from the jet, it just may earn at least a TD number. Time will tell. All of the global models are seeing it and have been for several days now. Let's take a look...these are all forecasts for the late Thursday into Friday time frame...
GFS
EURO
THE BRITS
and THE CANUCKS
It would be nice to get some of that moisture up into the Piedmont and into PA but I do not think that is very likely. We are certainly running a rainfall deficit of late and are sorely in need of rain to help things along during this critical time of the growing season. Here is a precip anomaly map for the last 6 months...most would not have thought that we were this dry in south-central PA...
May is KMDT's wettest month of the year historically and with frequent frontal passages at this time of year, low pressure often forms on the front and enhances the rainfall along the east coast. We will have 2 opportunities for this during the upcoming 7 days; on/about Tuesday and then again later next weekend. Mother's Day 2015 might be a soggy one?
As for the temps this upcoming summer, look for near normal temps with the warmest weather coming likely in August and September. I will quickly share June-July-August forecasts from the CFSv2 model that just ran yesterday...
JUNE
JULY
AUGUST
What I see in those previous 3 maps as I'm sure y'all do too is a wet southern plains. That's good news if this were to verify. Hook 'em horns with cool temps and frequent rains! OK, time to peruse other interests on the worldwide web at this early morning hour. Nothing like a freshly brewed cup of coffee (Caribou this am) doctored with some light cream while reading an opinionated but science based commentary on nutrition; primarily the effects of ketosis on the human body. I know...I know...Smitty must have insomnia...
I hope everyone enjoys their FIRST SATURDAY OF MAY whether it involves the Kentucky Derby in some fashion or not. And I'm sure most of you will most undoubtedly "Seize The Day"...subliminal implications intended! I will leave you with a favorite of mine where in the 2nd verse, Mick croons about this day...enjoy!
Smitty
AA: It's Derby Day! Carpe Diem to win? Warm week coming up. Need some rain to keep that grass growing for my favorite lawn maintenance man! How can you let A-Rod beat you...pinch hit HR in the 8th...c'mon man! And only getting to CC for 2 through 6? Ouch! Enjoy your weekend my friend.
Obviously, I've not written for quite sometime. However, as many of you know, that doesn't mean I have stopped studying the wx. My time has recently been spent on other pursuits that involve trying to understand MY human body and its response to various stimuli including, but not limited to nutrition, exercise, and sleep. However, as a slight diversion from my normal routine of late, I thought I'd share a classic example of jet stream energy phasing that if this were to occur in January or February, I'd be as excited as my Lab Ziggy is for his kibble-time! This is classic and the maps created by Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell really allow for one to clearly visualize the phasing of the disturbances. I will show you the 500 mb maps and the height anomalies. (Don't worry about what that really is; just watch how the upper air energy interferes with each constructively!) The progression of the maps will be 24 hours into the future starting with Sunday late afternoon. I will circle in red the 2 separate disturbances...buckle up...here we go!
SUNDAY:
MONDAY:
TUESDAY:
WEDNESDAY:
THURSDAY:
And finally the surface storm for the coast! Quite a blow for this time of year!
I just thought I'd share this classic storm formation as seen by the numerical modeling out of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting. And for those of you looking for summer, here is the Day 10 surge of heat at the 850 mb level. I believe the 1st week of May will feel quite summer-like in these parts. I may just have to break out my short sleeve polos from winter storage...finally!
OK...off to see how my recent exercise regiment has affected my specific weight lift targets. I thank you all for reading this and I hope you all enjoy this time of year that can be so beautiful in terms of the weather...but at the same time, rather confounding...commonly known as PA Spring!
Happy Weekend!
Smitty
AA: Just looking at upper air charts to see how coastal storm might evolve later next week. Still coolish here...but the 1st week of May will turn warmer! I'm concerned about the Os; your BoSox look tough as do the Jays in the east!
With this first wintry event ending as y'all awaken this morning, a "Manitoba Mauler", which is gearing up to invoke a smack-down on southern and eastern New England, will give us a cursory accumulation of winter fun, but more importantly, pave the way for the hounds of the arctic to come a howlin' to these parts for the next few weeks! Please humor me and let me describe all of this...1st the "MM" for Sunday evening...please note that some of the snowfall depicted on the map below is the ending of the current snowfall...which is ending as rain and freezing rain here at my humble abode here in the sub-tropics of south central PA!
So come Monday morning, at KMDT, we are looking at a seasonal snowfall total somewhere in the neighborhood of 15" to date...pretty typical for us at this time of the year. Everyone was pumped for winter back in November with the pre-Thanksgiving snow (rare for KMDT) and the early cold shots that was getting everyone in the spirits for a "White Christmas". Let me remind you of the temps from November 2014...
As you can plainly see, with the exception of CA and NV, the remaining parts of the CONUS were very much below seasonal norms for the month. Dreams of a white Christmas were quickly dashed, however, as December dawned a new month of warmth...take a look...
The only wintry events that can come from a warm anomaly as seen above is solid lake effect snows as the lakes remain "warm" relative to the the occasional cold shots coming across them delivering the winter goods for those in the favored lake effect belts. However, once the ball dropped on Time Square, the weather turned once again for the lower 48. This January has a chance to be colder than last January and in fact, currently is as a whole for the lower 48 to date! But everyone remembers the "Polar Vortex" episodes and the numerous snows that occurred as the warmth attacked the strong holding cold to the north...here...look for yourself...this is January 2014 below...quite cold from Nunavut to New Orleans and points east!
And this January to date as seen below...note the "warm" southeast quadrant of the US around FL and the Carolinas...that is what has caused any precip that has tried to come our way from the southwest to ultimately warm the column and turn it to rain in these parts. But when we get clipper systems from the northwest, although the moisture is limited, it is accompanied by quite a cold air mass and high ratio snows are usually the outcome. And that once again is likely to occur to end our week's end.
But when we look at the monthly deviations for January in a week or so, they will look much different from the map above as some serious cold is about to be unleashed on the eastern CONUS. Here are the temperature anomalies for the next 5 days...
Then days 6-11...
And finally days 11-16...
And as we head into February (remember February made Don McLean shiver with every paper he delivered...sorry I digress...), the cold looks to hold if you believe the NCEP climate models...the map below shows the last 3 runs averaged...that is quite a cold signal for the northeast!
The model is likely sniffing out a deep snow pack as this graphic below indicates...this is a 10 day mean of max snow depth for the 10 days into the middle of February...
OK...I've rambled on long enough. I think y'all get the point. This weekend will kickoff winter for the next several weeks in these parts. "Kickoff"...kinda ironic since we don't have any football this weekend, unless the Senior Bowl counts for something, and it does as it is many times entertaining! So, the cold is a comin' as is Jimi's train; take a listen. It's acoustic (12-string) for all of you raucous electric guitar phobes. I hope you enjoy.
And enjoy your week's end!
Smitty
AA: Snow cover will make the cold that's on tap this week even "colder". Here, I couldn't resist one more map. Modeled lows for Wednesday...
And the title is not referring to the cold front that will blast through our region sometime when "Joy To The World" is being sung at midnight mass tonight! Just ahead of the passing of the strong cold front, warm air will invade our region on some gusty SSW winds...look at these temp anomalies...
Wind gusts well over 30 mph will be occurring around midnight; first to help scour the low level cold air, then briefly spike temps to near 60°F prior to the temps crashing back to near 40°F by morning. This is a very well mixed air mass, so Christmas Day should be relatively mild with temps near 50°F for maxes. And a visit from the sun is guaranteed! Haven't had many of those sightings over the last 3 weeks! Here is a close-up map centered on Harrisburg indicating wind gusts well over the 30 knot threshold...so make sure those air filled Santas and Snowmen are tightly secured. There will be quite the pressure gradient accompanied with this frontal passage, so gusty conditions are also guaranteed!
But the real purpose of this posting is to quickly discuss the potential of winter weather arriving in spades early next week. There will be several wrinkles in quite a strong jet as arctic air bleeds and presses south and east into the Mid-Atlantic region. Below is the jet stream map for next Tuesday. Note the direct discharge of arctic air from...well...the arctic and then the baroclinic zone setting up very close to southern PA! (Location of the jet). In addition, the upper level divergence with the fast jet streaks should lead to several bouts of snowfall for us in the Monday-Wednesday time frame. The timing of each little wrinkle is simply to difficult at this time parameter!
The map below shows the moisture available for precipitation...precipitable water along with the sea level pressures. Note the low pressure over TN-MS-AL and that low, although weak should track across northern VA and then up towards Nova Scotia. This is the arctic boundary where just to the NW of the purple colors, very cold and dry air will begin to claim. A nice overrunning event should occur here across PA! The Euro has been pretty consistent in its solution over the last several runs.
Once this system passes, the model is sensing snow on the ground as some very cold anomalies are being modeled! Brrrr...you will hear about the polar vortex next week once again I do believe! Look at the UP of Michigan. That is from deep fresh snow pack from lake effect with this arctic air invasion.
The 850 mb temps are quite cold and high pressure will rule the roost for several days after the New Year! But don't get to used to that as many more jet disturbances look poised to wiggle along this arctic boundary and more snowfall is likely into the first part of January.
So that is my Christmas Week Synopsis and I'm sticking with it! And with the wind this evening, I believe you'll hear to wind chimes, trash cans, rafters, etc...but play this video below so you can hear The Bells On Christmas Day!
Merry Christmas y'all...and as always...THANKS for reading!
Smitty
AA: Windy this evening to get rid of this rain/wet/mess. Then a few clearer and drier days prior to some potentially nasty winter-like weather early next week. Then quite cold around New Years Day...and a bit beyond! Merry Christmas my friend!
For today's excellent adventure, we will simply look at the the 850 mb level of the atmosphere in terms of the temperatures over the next 10 days. It behooves one to look at the atmosphere one mile above earth's surface as the effects of friction and other surface interactions are minimized in order to see how the atmosphere is cycling. Let's start with the 850 mb temperature initialization for the Euro from last evening...
Generally mundane cold across the eastern CONUS (Continental United States)...quite typical for this time of year. There are a few pools of colder air in the sea of mundane cold; namely by Lake Winnipeg and north central PA, i.e. "God's Country"! You'll also note a few patches of above freezing air in Quebec. Now look at how that evolves by Monday evening...
A general moderation in the temps due to zonal flow across the CONUS. That is not a very cold map for late December! But a careful eye will note in the very NW corner of the map, some colder air lurks. 24 hours later, voila...
An energetic diving jet drives the sub-freezing air all the way into central TX. On the east side of the trough, warm air is forced northward into New England and all of the way into Ontario and Quebec. This upper air configuration should allow surface temps to approach 60°F for Christmas Eve! Santa will only need his union suit when visiting the sub-tropics of KMDT this Christmas! Then by Christmas Day, the trough tilts negatively and will spin up quite a storm that will deepen over the Great Lakes. For us, it means a rainy and mild Christmas Eve followed by a vigorous frontal passage bringing a gusty Christmas afternoon with temps falling back to December-like levels...
Look at that 20°C air streaming up from the tropics towards Cape Hatteras! The atmosphere is in quite a tumult this Christmas...but it returns to normal for a day with WNW flow for Christmas Day.
But that poleward bulge over IL will be over the northeast one day later with a return to milder air, but not as warm as Christmas Eve. If we can get any sun...and we should...we will see temps in the mid 50s for Friday...
The cold front will traverse the state Saturday and usher in much colder air as we anticipate the coming of 2015...
...and by the end of the 10 days the Euro runs, cold looks to be the rule across the most of the US with what appears to be a steady stream of cold air plunging from the arctic into the CONUS...and likely to continue well into January...
Now I know we don't live at 850 mb, although I've met a few people in my life that thought they did! But as I mentioned earlier, it gives a good feel as to what the air wants to do and how the various air masses will move. Hence, an idea of the getting a good feel for the sensible surface weather can be attained...I hope that makes sense to y'all.
As usual, I'll leave you with a little musical wish...
Enjoy your week's end and your Christmas week!
Thanks for reading!
Smitty
AA: Monitoring the air flow a mile up to see the cold moderate to a very mild Christmas Eve. Then one blustery colder Christmas Day followed by another couple of milder days. Then the bottom drops out early next week! Merry Christmas my friend!
...and all through the meteo house
All the numerical models were buzzin'
With the solutions all loused!
Sorry for that...
What numerical turmoil. There is so much energy that is diving into the eastern half of the continent that the modeling is frankly all over the place in terms of how this will play out in terms of the sensible weather! My oh my, this is a tricky call...especially for the impact of the timing of this MAJOR EVENT! I mean, look at that crazy prog from WPC from 6 days out...very complex to say the least!
Gut feeling at this time; limited precip (less than 1"; mostly wet not white here) with much wind! Cold for after Christmas with mostly cloudy conditions. But without all of the features yet to be sampled over the continent, the modeling is struggling greatly to hone in on a solution. Take the Euro for example...here it is 24 hours apart for the same time frame...looking at the 500 mb level.
Today...
Yesterday at the same time...
To many, I'm sure it looks largely the same. However, the trough was much deeper and further west than the run today. In fact, that has major implications for the surface features. Here is today's surface map from the Euro for Christmas Eve...
But yesterday's run had an Edmund Fitzgerald type storm heading for the Lakes!
It will be interesting to see how this all pans out. The meteorology this fall and early winter has been quite interesting. How many cyclones have come our way and then sat and spun over the Gulf of Maine for like what seems an endless eternity of clouds and gloominess. Couple that with solar winter (lowest sun angle and least amount of sun time) and the winter blahs are running prevalent without the big one! The Euro does build a glacier to our north by next weekend! Wow...
The GFS has the glacier further west... (a warmer solution to be sure, too)
You can clearly see similarities between the 2 premier models. The major takeaway for me is that there is not much white here in southern PA around KMDT. But this pattern is ripe with promise! There will be a major phasing storm next week in the eastern 1/3 of the US...of course the devil is in the details as is always the case in terms of the necessary cold air aloft to create a snow event for KMDT. The depth of the trough suggests cold is near; but it would be nice to have a large high to our north where there are none to be found. So I'm still looking for a green Christmas in these parts, but not nearly as warm as I would've thought yesterday with what was to be a major cyclone over central Ontario. I'm sure tomorrow afternoon will give us something different again...like some sunshine! Enjoy it as it will be hard pressed to locate once past Saturday!
OK, I've rambled enough...enjoy this Christmas ditty! It should get you movin'!
Smitty
AA: Tough call for Christmas Eve and Christmas. Still thinking wet; not white. And much cooler than what I thought yesterday.
As I sit here and tickle these keys with our advent wreath adorning our table, 3 candles afire, traditional Christmas music playing in the background, I too dream of a white Christmas. However, it seems to not be in the cards; not for this year. In fact, it might just get quite mild in these parts prior to the arctic opening up on PA. In fact, a white New Years Day is looking more and more likely. Remember, living here in the sub-tropics, a white Christmas is climatologically not a very frequent event. Take a look at this graphic...
If you would've asked me a few days back, I thought the probability was pretty good...over 70% as I believed cold would hold after a healthy snow event for this upcoming weekend. However, that system will simply progress off the east coast too far south from our area to have much of an impact. The map below shows the greatest precip for a 3 hour period as per the GFS this weekend...maybe enough to get the ground white...at best! A few flakes Saturday night is the most likely outcome...but come to think of it, aren't there always a few flakes Saturday night?
But a major...and I do mean major storm will phase and drive warm air up the coastal plain for Christmas Eve into our region...look at this cyclone!
Here's the warmth being advected northward thanks to this massive storm...the map shows temps above normal in degrees F. I wonder what the heck is happening around Cape Hatteras?
However, the bottom will drop out a few days later with some serious cold coming straight down from the north pole! Take a look at this! Note the streamlines! Now our air will take the scenic route through the Dakotas and MN, but still a real change of air mass for the day after Christmas.
And that serious cold remains until New Years Day...and by the looks of the climatological modeling, as far as the numerical eye can calculate! So I'm sorry to bring disappointing news as I know many of you like the prospects of having a white Christmas...but if you are a lover of snow, cold and winter wx in general, I believe the weeks following Christmas will not disappoint! With that said, maybe this song will be appropriate for us this Christmas living here in KMDT; aka the sub-tropics! Well, maybe a stretch...but...just saying! Enjoy!
Thanks for reading!
Smitty
AA: Typical Decemberish weather through the weekend. Near miss with storm Sat night off to the south. Not real strong either! Big storm to our west Tuesday makes Christmas Eve and Day above normal with temps...then the cold is comin' in spades...and hearts...and diamond...and even clubs!
