Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
Currently this evening I'm watching a variety of things, temperature of course being one of those. I just happened to scope Mt Washington's obs and they were ugly...and that's being kind! Likely worse by morning no doubt!
I've also been watching this "Bad moon on the rise" out my eastward facing window and that reminded me to inform my early risers to look SE predawn and potentially catch a glimpse of Mars-Jupiter in conjunction (side by side). The moon will pay a celestial visit with those two next Wed-Thursday time frame...That is one thing nice about arctic air; usually cloud free!
As for the weather, after the deepest part of the cold early Sunday, temps have nowhere to go but UP! The early am lows Sunday could be records if the winds subside...as per then NAM...(-10°F is not out of the question for KMDT if winds go calm at sunrise!)
The model is clearly detecting where there is and is no snow on the ground! Interesting... Anyway, here is the mid to late week Farm Show Thaw...so much for Farm Show nastiness! Impressive anomalies for warmth...Farm Show Friday...
Those of you who are astute observers of the wx will note there lurks yet another arctic blast to the northwest...but rest assured for those of you who want mud, the genuine thaw of January is coming gangbusters...check it out for week 3...the American ensembles...
So there will be minimal bouts of winter upcoming the next week, slop early (low cold air is hard to displace quickly), then rain late week, but my message is simple...the January Thaw is looming! Just like my song choice; I've listened to so many great tunes this evening. But since we are in such mid-winter conditions, I'll leave y'all with this. I hope you'll like...? Enjoy the tune...and for those of you who want out of the bleak mid-winter, a 2 week respite is in store I do believe! Enjoy it my Subaru compadre from Lanco...
So, with all of that said, enjoy your thaw, but first... enjoy your bitter cold week's end!
Smitty
AA: The worst of winter is NOW in terms of cold. A 2-3 week thaw is coming starting middle of farm show week. Ironic...ehhh? Thinking February has a couple of major snow events...different story for a different day! We can peruse the lots in late January without special clothing! Can we protest the PAT attempt?
Obviously, when the temperature is able to bottom out at -5°F (here in Etters), all is quiet and still on New Year's morn. Yesterday afternoon, I made a proclamation to my lovely bride that I felt that we'd drop below 0°F by morning. Of course, she mandated the site be KMDT; you know, the official NWS climatological site for Harrisburg, PA. So at 5 am, I read to her the official NWS observations starting with York, PA (KTHV). Now, in case you are not aware, the Thomasville airport serves as the York, PA weather data site. The location of this airport sits out along route 30 about 7 miles west of downtown York. There is minimal human development in the vicinity of the airport in what is largely an agricultural area and thus, great radiational cooling is able to occur under clear skies and calm winds. The graphic below depicts optimal radiational cooling conditions. It also shows our 1st Full Moon of 2018 occuring at 9:24 pm this evening!
With the Saturday snowfall of just under 5" at my humble abode and a slightly lesser amount around York, the thermometer at 5am was a genuinely gelid -9°F at KTHV! But my wife quickly asked, "OK, that's nice, but what is it at Harrisburg?" Below is a screen shot of the 5am obs in central PA...
With the air moving from the NW at 6 mph, this prevented the coldest air to settle at the surface whilst in York, a calm wind made for optimal cold air collection! However, 2 hours later, KMDT officially dropped to below 0 bottoming out at -2°F. Here is the 7am screenshot of the obs when KMDT dropped below 0°F...
Also this am, I was perusing the NWS website and was just taken back at how widespread the watches and warnings were for dangerous cold and anomalous cold...take a look...
And the apparent temps across the northern plains were simply brutal; freezingly frigid at best! Ouch!
And this cold is forecast to persist for the next couple of weeks...1st 5 day anomaly...
And the 2nd 5 day anomaly...Farm Show week looks to be quite cold!
By the way, still watching a very powerful ocean storm developing later this week with some uncertainty as to its exact path...still not writing off a shift closer to the coast.
But either way, an even slightly colder shot of the arctic is poised to invade on Friday with gusty NW winds from the land of Nunavut! Saturday morning likely to be at or below 0°F in these parts....Brrrrr...
OK...off to Lancaster County for pork and sauerkraut over a bed of mashed spuds! Nothing changes on New Year's Day! U'all know what's coming...U2! Enjoy...
Stay warm; I'm out!
Smitty
AA: Coldest New Year's minimum temp at KMDT since the climatological records began in 1888! Likely to see another sub-zero day or two before moderation of this arctic cold by middle of next week. Happy New Year my friend!
I'll be brief this morning as we have a busy day upcoming with Kay's family. Clearly, y'all know its cold and it actually getting colder before it warms the 2nd week of January. As I've been mentioning, the cold is the easy part of the weather forecasts; the precip potential is a whole other ballgame. Although a week out on the Euro modeling, a significant snowfall is now appearing somewhat consistently for our region the middle to end of next week followed by brutal cold (the dreaded "polar vortex" (cue the horror music)). Frankly, it's quite cold in these parts and temps are bottoming out at rather low levels WITHOUT any snow on the ground. That shows how impressive this arctic discharge has been and will continue to be into the longer term. Here are the lows this am. Note the "balmy" 14°F in Erie along with their 103"+ of December snows!
Now, a brief tour of graphics for next week. First the mid-level 500 mb anomaly...
And the brutal cold associated with this dense cold air..
Compliments of a highly amplified jet stream...
Potentially developing a nor'easter...
Here is a graphic representation of the next 10 days in terms of very cold temps (not reaching 32°F in next 10 days!) and snowfall...this is likely the worst winter will offer in terms of temps; likely not for snows...
OK...gotta run. Enjoy your Thursday; the 362nd day of 2017! And please enjoy this...
Happy New Year!
Smitty
AA: Very cold and relatively dry (very little snow this weekend) until next week when there is a real potential for a major snowfall and below zero temps with freshly fallen snows. Happy New Year fantasy champ...BY ONE POINT when the Beagles took a knee for their PAT! Wow!
Alberta clipper systems often usher in bouts of arctic and polar air to the lower 48 states, but a slightly different type of transcontinental system is evolving as I type; a Wyoming bred whipsaw if you will! Once this vigorous little system races eastward to the Atlantic and "bombs out" when fueled by greater water vapor, then the weather community will be watching the invasion of cross polar air into the CONUS. As for us here in the KMDT region, a few festive flakes will likely fall during midnight mass, but for all practical purposes, the greatest impact from this whipsaw will be to our north and east giving the ski country of New England a solid start for their holiday week! Take a look at the current watches and warnings associated with this fast little mover...
Note the lake effect warnings on the lee of Erie, Ontario, and Michigan, along with the wind chill warnings and freezing spray warnings on/around Superior! Winter's harshness will be felt for those hearty souls up on the Keweenaw peninsula with wind whipped snows totaling 1'-2' with the arctic air invasion. For us, the true arctic air will be slow to move in as we are and will be under broad WSW flow as seen by the current mid-level water vapor imagery! (By the way, I love the new GOES 16 satellite!)
You can see the arctic air pressing south across Montana and ND and the arctic temps plunging south into the lower 48. Note the warmer temps north of AK and the cross-polar slide south into Ontario and Manitoba! Brrr....
All compliments of this convoluted jet stream...
This will make for a rather cold week for most of the CONUS less the 4 corners region, California, NV and the Rio Grande Valley. (If you're traveling to the Fiesta Bowl to root on those Nittany Lions, the wx should be nice!) South Florida too is escaping the "cold" thanks to their sub-tropical ridge of warm air!
Now I know many of you are wanting to know about snowfall. Here is the current snow depth. About 39% of the CONUS has at least 1" of snow cover. By next weekend, that total will be greatly increased; however, it is still a difficult call for KMDT.
The Euro ensembles and the operational runs are not showing any type of consistency and therefore confidence is low as seen by the spread of low pressure systems. Clearly a storm is going to develop along the east coast of the US, but timing and location are still "up in the air"! Another arctic high is building over the O Canadian prairies. Take a look...
OK...enough. Merry Christmas y'all! Enjoy this classic. These performers are jamming!
Smitty
AA: A few festive flakes as Santa arrives overnight...then pressing cold for the rest of the week. Still watching a coastal storm potential for Friday-Saturday time frame...?
I've been studying the atmospheric mischief for the last several weeks more so than usual...if that's even possible...and I'm becoming more convinced that Christmas to New Years Day and beyond looks ugly for those of you not liking the winter theme. If you like winter's best; this I believe is the stretch you'll enjoy! First, the cold!
If there is any snow on the ground, knock 10°F off the temps shown above...And now the potential snowfall as per the Euro...(personally, it might be underdone since we live at such a baroclinic boundary...)
The totals shown above are by Jan 1; Happy New Year! I'm not sure if this verifies, but if it does, I'll never see a Christmas week rocking and rolling like this again in my lifetime...? Enjoy!
And enjoy my girl...
Merry Christmas!
Smitty
AA: The 10 day period we do not report might be rather rocking and rolling in terms of the weather! Merry Christmas my friend! Squeeze those little ones a bit harder for me please; I miss doing so but I'll grip my big boy with a bear hug when he gets in town from STL!
The snow forecast is difficult...as is usually the case; THE COLD IS NOT! I believe the next 10-15 days may be the coldest of this winter for KMDT! It's difficult for us to record a low temp below 0 without snow on the ground (or with the AGW crowd, even with!), but I'm thinking the hounds of the Arctic will be trying to do so before the end of this year! Put another way, I will be watching the ball, pickle, hammer, bologna, drop from the shelter of my home (or some other indoor facility!) as opposed to attending live and freezingly in person. Please allow me to espouse...
First...the 850 mb anomaly for New Years Eve..."Barney cold"...!
But long prior to that scene, we will see our last 50+F this Saturday for quite a while...the graphic below is Saturday pm...
However, by Christmas morn...here is what the Euro suggests...kinda normal temps...!
With this height anomaly by mid week...
Just bundle up and buckle up! Here is the Euro snow totes by next weekend...
When the snow falls is still quite an enigma...this is a pattern with potential and a forecaster's nightmare...when?...where?...how much?...and oh by the way, if you've not figured this out yet...I LOVE IT! Yet, another challenge! So I'll leave y'all with this Christmas ditty...Enjoy! Kay says this is my girl...
I'm out...
Smitty
AA: Brief warm up with rain Saturday...then the bottom drops out. Merry Christmas my friend! Enjoy those little ones; they grow way too quickly...and oh by the way, you're going down this weekend in fantasyland...I think??? Ha!
After perusing the copious quantities of maps this morning, one major eye opening parameter recurred over and over. The week between Christmas and New Years looks to be dominated by high pressure across most of North America. What that translates to is very cold and dry sensible weather. However, as I mentioned yesterday, there is an almost summer like "Bermuda High" out over the Atlantic that could fight back the advancing cold from O Canada and create a stormy pattern. The control runs of the modeling is not suggesting that; however, there are many perturbed ensembles that do. I'm unsure about precip but am fairly confident with the cold. Let's take a look.
I like to look at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) analog runs using similar synoptic set-ups at the 500 mb level. Here was their output this am. You can note the large Atlantic ridge and the vast negative over the continent. Also, in the lower right, there are dates. The top date of 1962 was a cold Christmas Day with a modest snow for Harrisburg. The 5th analog is 1983; the coldest Christmas Day on record for KMDT! January 1963 shows up. A continuation of the 5ºF below normal winter (1962-63) for KMDT! Ice was on the river for over 2 months at Harrisburg during that winter. 1967 (8th analog) had 2 major snowstorms all across the east after a warm spell as the cold air advanced. Basically, what I'm saying is there is some winter coming to these parts next week but the proverbial devil is in the details...
Here is the sprawling high pressure over the continent for Christmas week. That is one cold looking arctic high dominating the CONUS. Now does it come in without any arctic carpet is the question??? The top 1962 analog above had 2 moderate snows with the advancing arctic chill.
Again, the cold seems to be easy. The 5 day average of temps at 850 mb; Barney cold!
And the 500 mb heights are quite anomalous as well...
That is a couple days after this. That's the battleground over the east I alluded to yesterday. The flow of air is cross-polar into the northern plains so bundle up for the days following Christmas if this verifies.
Last map...I can't remember the last time I saw a 1060 mb high progged! Vodka cold! Rudolph won't be the only one with a red nose!
OK...off to light the 3rd candle on the advent wreath. I'll leave you with this remake of a Kenny Loggins tune...Enjoy!
I'm out...
Smitty
AA: Christmas week likely to be very cold. Not sure about any snow yet? Lots of man-made stuff at Roundtop. High pressure just might overwhelm the pattern for a solid week!
