Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
When some read the word "record", thoughts may go to vinyl (my favorite is One More From The Road...Lynyrd Skynyrd), wins and losses (my Os were 75-87, last place 2017), hard boiled eggs (Cool Hand Luke; 50 in one hour...OUCH!), Guiness (not the beverage)...and so on and so on...but y'all know me. Record snow; record heat, record rainfall, and for tonight...record cold! In fact, I believe there is a real legitimate shot at 2 records around the midnight hour for low temps, for both November 10 and November 11. Let me explain...
First, November 10, 2003 the thermometer bottomed out at 24°F. If you believe the HiRes NAM, KMDT should beat that like a rented mule! The graphic below is for midnight Friday/Saturday early am. (PS: Alert global warming folks; the record max for Nov 10 is 73°F set waaaaaaaaaaay back when record keeping began in 1888!) Take a look...
The record minimum for KMDT for the 11th day of the 11th month is 23°F. The temps may continue to fall some after midnight, but the deepest arctic air will be retreating NE away from us towards morning and surface temps may actually rise a degree or two...? But not before, I believe, we set another record with this direct arctic discharge from Nanook of the North! Here is the sunrise progs from the NAM...
And as we all saw this past Tuesday, once cold sets in our valley, it is difficult to displace. With that said, there is a possibility for some shenanigans Sunday night into Monday early am...at least the Euro suggests such a thing...
This would be only a tad tricky situation until daybreak at best...but just a heads up to y'all, my loyal readers! If you're out After Midnight Sunday...Be Safe mi amigos, be very safe...
OK...2 references about midnight. So the song that pops into my mind is definitive to be sure...in fact, I'm gonna let it all hang out below! Enjoy! And remember to thank a Veteran this weekend or at the very least reflect on our wonderful freedom thanks to those who serve this country! And by the way, I'll do that standing when the anthems play this weekend!
I'm Out...
Smitty
AA: Darn cold for this time of year! In fact, possible record breaking cold for both Friday and Saturday. We will discuss on our walk Tuesday!
It was 42 years ago when the Edmund Fitzgerald's "main hatchway caved in", so I thought I'd compare the wx synoptics...not quite the same! But still nasty! Quite unpleasant is a euphemism. Downright UGLY! Check out the wind speeds at the surface ...where the EF went down on "Gitche Gumee", the sustained winds this evening are 30 mph+; unpleasant to say the least! Let's put it this way; I love the Great Lakes, but I would not like to be hanging around Ashland, WI this evening for kicks and giggles!
As for the temps compared to norms...ouch! Barney colors are not good for fair weather lovers! That is the leading edge of Arctic air to invade us later tonight into tomorrow and Saturday! And when you're 20+ below normal in the north country...well...that's PDC (Pretty D*&^ Cold)!
And whatever precip would be falling there albeit relatively light would be once again not for the faint of heart! The precip would be such a mix that even the Chippewa would have a tough time describing it!
As per this graphic...Whitefish Bay still has forecasted gusts in excess of 50 mph...those hearty "Voyagers" were just that!
Here was the surface map then...
And this evening's...many similarities, but not nearly as extreme...still NASTY! And it's coming your way!
The song choice is simple! Enjoy...
Over 'n' Out.
Smitty
AA: A Recall of the wx that caused the Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald...
Clearly evident in yesterday's less than "electionable" weather was the fact that the air masses are now showing signs of winter. With the rapid rate of fall and the cohesion of water on the flakes making them "giants", an early call for snow removal was necessary in the highest elevations in our county! After what was an absolutely stellar sunrise, the weather quickly turned decidedly ugly as the clouds lowered and thickened and before you knew it, ice pellets were falling from the sky. Although during the midday hours most of the precip was liquid, it was during the late daylight hours where the silver dollar sized flakes were falling from the heavens reminding us winter is on the move. Thanks to the breeding grounds of snow covered O Canada, an Arctic High will produce our first truly hard freeze of this cold season. First, the breeding grounds...
Next, the Arctic High as progged by the Euro...
And the subsequent forecast low temps by using the GFS MOS (model output statistics)...
So, this upcoming Veterans Day weekend will feature our first shot of truly cold weather...how about very much below normal temps for Friday Night Lights for the first time this football season!
And for those of you who really don't mind winter weather during the run-up to Christmas, then the Euro is your model of choice...
And what that map suggests is a battle between cold to the north and warmth to the south which often spells a few bouts of wintry weather for these parts in the Mid-Atlantic. So I'll leave y'all with this which is how yesterday's weather can be best described...Enjoy!
And remember to pause for reflection at some point this upcoming Veterans Day weekend about the "11th hour of the 11th day in the 11th month"...
I'm out...
Smitty
AA: Coldest air to date coming Saturday morning at sunrise with sunrise temps a degree or 2 either side of 20°F. Watching a tricky situation for early next week as cold departs...?
After yet another disappointing loss on the part of the Nits, I took to studying the weather as we get deeper into the cold season. There are many mixed signals being sent by the atmospheric engine and both global models last evening were at polar opposites as to what the wx holds for the 7-10 day period. Well, overnight, they came into a bit better agreement which gave me just a tad more confidence to send this your way. First, I do believe the easiest part of this prognostication is the likely cold/1st real hard freeze coming our way on Veterans Day. Here is the Euro's take on the sprawling area of Arctic high pressure over the NE...
And the associated cold temps compared to norms...when the "Barney" colors show, that's a tad cold at this time of year!
Both global models show a developing coastal system off the Delmarva; here's the Euro's spin on this system...
With the GFS at about the same time with a stronger system about 150 miles SSE of the mouth of the Delaware Bay...
With the GFS further off the coast, the heaviest of the precip stays further SE as well...take a look...
The Euro has a more robust precipitation event for eastern PA...with a "hot-spot" over Sullivan & Lycoming Counties...
And with a heavy precip event, the atmosphere can manufacture its own cold air in addition to what is already in place and available...and both models do hint at accumulating snows...1st the Euro...an elevation dependant I-81 special for the eastern parts of the state...
And the American GFS...one that indicates a colder solution as the storm develops stronger a bit further off the coast pulling in the cold from O Canada a tad more robustly...also an elevation dependant solution as noted with high ground in WV, MD, and even South Mountain in PA...in fact, a small snow max is modeled in northern York County with respect to Reeser's Summit!
Anyway, it's waaaaay toooooo early to predict snowfall at 8 days hence, but it's just one more indication that our past warm spell will likely come to a screeching halt; and maybe with a blitz package to boot!
OK...enough said this morning. I'll leave y'all with this outstanding take of Etta James' blues tune performed at the White House a few years back...just feeling a tad bluesy this am thanks to the sub-par performance from PSU yesterday...maybe that lengthy wx delay had an adverse effect? But it was lengthy for both teams...right?
Enjoy your Sunday! And remember to get out and vote Tuesday! If you live in Region 2 of the CDSD...the choice is pretty darn clear; VOTE FOR MAZZ!
Smitty
AA: Turning much colder by Friday with a few flakes possibly being detected; it's getting to be that time of year! Mowing soon to be halted until next spring!
I'm sitting here pounding the keys just a bit harder as I just watched PSU lose to their rival OSU when given so many opportunities to walk away with a W...OH WELL...
When watching the game, I noticed the chill that settled over the Horseshoe and that same chill is heading our way. Currently, temps are in the upper 30s in western PA whereas they are still hanging near 70 in SE PA around Philly. In fact, the 11 am obs from Columbus airport reported light snow and 35°F indicating the strength of this pressing cold air mass. Essentially, the front will slow and hook up with a newly named tropical system...which frankly did not need to be named...
But when tropical moisture and water vapor energy is injected into a digging cold air mass...be aware! Kinda like knocking on a door for Mazz when there's a protective Pit Bull inside the house and the screen door was totally ajar! I shoved that door closed faster than a bolt of TDs from OSU in Q4. And the lady asked 2 minutes into our conversation...so how's your heart by now? Long Island and Southern New England are in for quite a blow! Ok...Ok...maps...total rainfall as per the Euro operational by Monday...
And the GFS is comparably wet...
Bottom line...rainout Sunday into early Monday! And for those of you looking forward to the month of November...well, cold interior, but hanging warmth in the east...as per the Euro.
OK...I'm out...Just like PSU. I'm still reeling; opening KO return...win the game! So I'll leave y'all with this "blues" tune, non-traditional! Not in the mood for a rockin' bluesy tune; nonetheless, enjoy!
And enjoy your Sunday Funday!
Smitty
AA: Heavy rainfall into Monday morning; PSU downer...
I know it's been awhile...a long while to be sure. It was about 10 days prior to Harvey wreaking havoc in the Houston area that I last blogged about the weather and weather there was! Harvey, Irma, Jose, and of course Maria. But for us, the weather was rather benign. In fact, when the temps are above norms in October, well, in my humble opinion, that's kinda nice! Here is the last 6 weeks to date in terms of temps...
But I believe the month ahead of us will slap us hard in terms of a polar opposite temperature anomaly...the onset of winter is already starting with a nice late October winter storm across the north country of Minne-haha tonight...take a look...
On the other side of the pole, the snow-cover is being laid down a bit earlier than normal as well...much of Russia (collusion...sorry, I was just associating freely!) is covered with the arctic blanket.
So with all of that said, we have an air mass that started on the other side of the pole that will be digging deep into our continent...take a look! Those blue-purple-green colors indicate a serious change in the weather; a rude awakening to be sure with the anomalous warmth we've experienced for the last several weeks!
And as for how dry it's been, that's about to change as well as a tropical disturbance looks to phase with this digging energy from the northlands and the proverbial "pour gasoline onto a fire" will bomb a storm off the east coast this weekend...take a look! Not a total phase as the little tropical piece lays off to the SSE...if that would entrain...well...watch out!
And the heavy rains overnight Sunday into Monday...the graphic below is only a 6 hour snapshot of precip!
Here's the total precip through early next week...
Ok...'nough said...just trying to get back a feel for this blogging thing as I've had many ask "where's the posts"? So with this changing pattern, I thought I'd clue in my loyal readers...and as always...thanks so much for reading!
I've listened to a nice quantity of quality music this evening and I'm not sure what I should include and share with y'all...but I did mention Maria earlier. And for my bud, Chuck, I'll embed this recent classic from Carlos...enjoy!
And enjoy your Halloween Penn State over OSU weekend!
Smitty
AA: Getting colder and wetter for the foreseeable future! And I do me colder...and wetter!
As I continue to monitor the situation with blowhard Harvey, I am also keeping one eye on soon to be Irma...at least I believe so. And although the Euro and the GFS keep Irma out to sea, the Canadian global numerical model has a rather concerning solution...especially in its previous run...take a look...
The above scenario would be a bit disconcerting for us here in the mid-Atlantic. With that said, the trend of the model is now to keep it further away...and that is good news! Take a look; first off the Outer Banks and the VA capes...
And then 6 hours later pulling away with the Gulf Stream...here's hoping. Bottom line; must keep our watch for soon to be Irma...
So you know my deal...gotta leave y'all with a good tune. The top most graphic would be an affirmation for the song sung below...Enjoy!
Smitty
AA: The Canadian is a fairly reliable model and this has me a tad concerned for the middle of next week. Just get your mowing done!
