First Hard Freeze and First Flakes of 2017-18

After yet another disappointing loss on the part of the Nits, I took to studying the weather as we get deeper into the cold season.  There are many mixed signals being sent by the atmospheric engine and both global models last evening were at polar opposites as to what the wx holds for the 7-10 day period.  Well, overnight, they came into a bit better agreement which gave me just a tad more confidence to send this your way.  First, I do believe the easiest part of this prognostication is the likely cold/1st real hard freeze coming our way on Veterans Day.  Here is the Euro's take on the sprawling area of Arctic high pressure over the NE...

And the associated cold temps compared to norms...when the "Barney" colors show, that's a tad cold at this time of year!

Both global models show a developing coastal system off the Delmarva; here's the Euro's spin on this system...

With the GFS at about the same time with a stronger system about 150 miles SSE of the mouth of the Delaware Bay...

With the GFS further off the coast, the heaviest of the precip stays further SE as well...take a look...

The Euro has a more robust precipitation event for eastern PA...with a "hot-spot" over Sullivan & Lycoming Counties...

And with a heavy precip event, the atmosphere can manufacture its own cold air in addition to what is already in place and available...and both models do hint at accumulating snows...1st the Euro...an elevation dependant I-81 special for the eastern parts of the state...

And the American GFS...one that indicates a colder solution as the storm develops stronger a bit further off the coast pulling in the cold from O Canada a tad more robustly...also an elevation dependant solution as noted with high ground in WV, MD, and even South Mountain in PA...in fact, a small snow max is modeled in northern York County with respect to Reeser's Summit!

Anyway, it's waaaaay toooooo early to predict snowfall at 8 days hence, but it's just one more indication that our past warm spell will likely come to a screeching halt; and maybe with a blitz package to boot!  

OK...enough said this morning.  I'll leave y'all with this outstanding take of Etta James' blues tune performed at the White House a few years back...just feeling a tad bluesy this am thanks to the sub-par performance from PSU yesterday...maybe that lengthy wx delay had an adverse effect?  But it was lengthy for both teams...right?  

Enjoy your Sunday!  And remember to get out and vote Tuesday!  If you live in Region 2 of the CDSD...the choice is pretty darn clear; VOTE FOR MAZZ!

Smitty

AA:  Turning much colder by Friday with a few flakes possibly being detected; it's getting to be that time of year!  Mowing soon to be halted until next spring!