Islands of Cool in a Sea of Warmth

Upon the breaking of dawn Tuesday morn, a widespread frost greeted most of us here in south central PA.  In fact, the actual air temp reached 32°F at the York-Thomasville airport official NWS reporting station.  However, that frost will be the exception rather than the norm in the upcoming 10 days.  In fact, temps should rally into the low 70s by early afternoon.  I always like to look at the progged 850 mb temps to get a feel for where the surface temps will be.  Remember, the 850 mb level roughly corresponds to about the 5000' level where surface conditions/friction/terrain, etc doesn't affect the modeling as it does at the 900 mb level and obviously the surface.  Here are this afternoon's 850 temps for our region...

Two things to note above; the front running from On Wisconsin down SW to the Okie from Muskogee and the hurricane that will affect Bermuda on Thursday, Hurricane Nicole, currently a Cat 2 storm with 100 mph winds.  Behind the cold front, the air mass over the Dakotas is quite cool for this time of year.  However, as it migrates east and lifts north of PA, it will moderate and give us a day that is merely a degree or 2 below the 30 year seasonal norms.  Currently our daily normal max is  65°F while our daily min is 46°F for KMDT.  Here is the 850 progged anomalies for Friday...

From the above map, it is clearly evident that warmth is again building over the western interior States and will continue to building into next week.  Here is the 850 mb temp anomaly for Monday...

So expect some warmth at the surface in these parts for next week as a major storm in the middle part of the country develops.  Here is what the storm system looks like at the 850 mb level on Friday...

...and the progged surface map for the same time...

The Okies from Muskogee will be on the cold side of the low with a stiff north wind advecting cold Canadian air down the plains while we will be enjoying a warm SW flow.  Stubborn high pressure over New England will reluctantly recede to the NE and thus some light overrunning precip will occur and the true warmth will be difficult to reach the surface east of the Appalachian Mtns.

In fact, looking at the CFSv2, the latter part of October remains warm in the east while the western US cools a bit...just a few islands of cool in a sea of warmth.

OK...gotta run!  Maybe for the hills if you believe Al and Hill from their comments at yesterday's Florida gathering...totally insane that politicians seem to be able to comment on one of the most complex scientific topics known to man; earth's climate system!  It's been 11 years now since a major CAT 3 or larger storm has struck the US (Wilma was last in late October, 2005).  Yes, Matthew was a powerful storm and its damage incredible, but it's not as extraordinary as these 2 political hacks would have you believe!  When viewing the graphic below, keep in mind that coastal development has exploded in the recent decades and that there is far more opportunity for greater economic insured loss to be incurred now than back 50-100 years ago.  

I'll leave y'all with this country classic!  Enjoy!

Smitty

AA:  A couple chilly mornings, but overall a warm and dry pattern will persist through the remainder of October...at least from my seat.

Cold Canadian High To Squash Matthew?

The afternoon run of the Euro would have you believe so...take a look.

Saturday afternoon:

Sunday afternoon:

Monday afternoon:

And this is large dome of cold dry air for early October.  Take a look at the modeled lows for Monday am...

It's also interesting to note that TS Nicole and Cat 4 Matthew (current winds 140 mph) seem to be interacting on the global model to some extent.  Basically, TS Nicole will remain somewhat stationary and slowly weaken while the NHC is continuing with Matthew's trek up the east coast.  Take a look at the latest 5 pm advisory from NHC...

So there still remains great uncertainty in the ultimate path of Matthew and its effects along the east coast.  Here is a total rainfall model for our immediate region by late Sunday if the progressive GFS is correct...

And if we don't get much precip from this tropical system, well, it's gonna be dry it appears again in these parts.  Compare the above precip graphic to the one below which adds another 10 days of precip; not much difference!

So, in closing, still much uncertainty with the final resolution of this system.  It most definitely bears watching for any and all interests along the east coast from Miami to Maine.  That Euro operational solution is quite unique and perplexing; powerful hit along the FL east coast for a couple days, then loops around to rain out over the state 5 days later...

It gets to its position shown below by doing a nice little loop off the Florida coast in the South Atlantic; very strange...I'll be looking forward to the overnight run to see if it resolves this system in that strange manner again...?

Okay...gotta get ready for the AL Wildcard game.  Let's Go Os!

Smitty

AA:  Much uncertainty in track of this major hurricane.  What's not uncertain is that Haiti is experiencing a disastrous natural catastrophe on top of the powerful earthquake from 6 years ago that is exacting quite a toll of human hardship.

Drought Buster or Simply Drought Relief?

As most of you are aware, it's been a significantly drier than normal late summer period and coupled with the endless summer heat, most of PA has been identified by the USDA drought monitor as being abnormally dry...take a look.

Even the Susquehanna River is in in lowest 25 percentile of discharge for this time of year; a far cry from this time 41 years ago when many of you will remember Hurricane Eloise.  First, today's discharge as measured at City Island.  The brown triangles represent the median flow for each day the last month.  We are well below the norms...

And a brief reminder of aforementioned Hurricane Eloise...she rained herself out over the northern mid-Atlantic and we suffered here in south central PA.

So now we are faced with a blocked 500 mb upper level low that will slowly migrate over the lower Ohio Valley the next 4-5 days before slowly filling and lifting away.  With that said, rain of varying intensity will be in our area for the next several days...starting...well...now as I pound these keys.  So the next question is how much rain will fall.  I'll show you the total precip by Sunday first with the Euro...it is BY FAR the most bullish for rain amounts.  I can see it happening, but this amount is unlikely come Sunday (5+" for KMDT)

Next, the GFS (Global Forecast System from the USA)...a tad more reasonable.

And lastly, the very consistent NAM.  This model has been rock steady over the last several runs! It has been targeting the very western portion of the Susquehanna Valley and the Laurel Highlands with the axis of heaviest rain. Here is its latest...

Here's the official guidance from the NWS for precip total ending Saturday evening...that is quite wet to be sure!

And just to keep things interesting for next week, Matthew is brewing in the Caribbean and the GFS wants to keep us on our toes...gut feeling, this storm will end up further east than shown below...I hope!

OK...gotta run.  Enjoy this timely Eric Clapton tune...and root for the NAM!

Smitty

AA:  Rainy and quite wet next few days.  Be careful what you wish for!  By the way, a hurricane up the coast might be the only way to stop your BoSox this year!

Watch The North Wind Rise

If you think this last past week was a bit warm...well...YOU ARE CORRECT!  Check it out..

Average of the last 10 days...

Now, just the last week...

And how about just the last 3 days...wow!  It's been quite warm!  Actually, downright HOT!  Note the extreme right down the Susq. Valley!  Y'all know it's been quite warm...

So with all of that...I hope you enjoy this "Hot" tune from "Hot Tuna"...Watch the North Wind Rise...because eventually, simply due to seasonal change, the north wind will pay us a visit!  Enjoy!

I'm out...

Smitty

AA:  Looks to be warm for a bit longer; it's been quite unseasonable as you are quite aware.  I think you might like this tune...

A Taste Of Autumn...A Very Little Taste Of Autumn

Aaahhhh...autumn.  Mostly clear skies, drier air from the recent weeks of the "Dog Days of August" with high humidity, and the crack of pads or the ball and the bat.  Either way, these things make the return to the normalcy of everyday schooling a bit more acceptable, even welcoming.  Usually cooler temps greet us around Labor Day, but this year of endless summer has not been so kind.  Take a look at the temps to this point in September...remembering only 9 days in...The cooler temps relegated to the western US while the east basks in endless summer.  Note where the tropical system Hermine crossed FL and south GA to keep those temps cooler than the norms.

Take a look at July; note the eastern USA...

And then August...we here in the Harrisburg region are living the 2nd warmest summer since records (1888) have been officially maintained.  1966 was the hottest on record...it has been toasty!

And if you believe the CFSv2, this will continue for the next 10 days at least...

Oh...there will be cooler days, but few and far between.  Example; next Friday am snapshot.  Below is the coldest panel I could find for PA on the Euro for the next 15 days!  Endless summer!

Bottom line?  We've got a warm September coming as well.  Frankly, I don't see any real pattern change through the middle of October.  At least, the norms drop as the days shorten, but temps will still hold warmer than normal for the foreseeable future.  If you are a summer nut; ENJOY!  If you desire cooler temps...well...I feel your pain!  Endless summer! Just enjoy this throwback to the 80s...like me!

OK...not much else to say.  Warmer than normal for the bulk of days for the next 30 days.  Got it?  Good.  Endless summer...Let's hope the weather stays warm for when the Os host the World Series in late October!  Let's Go O's!

Great week's end everyone!

Smitty

AA:  Looks like warmer and drier than normal weather will prevail for the next 30+ days if I can read my magic 8 ball correctly!  Smitty:  "Will the next 30 days average above normal temps and below normal precip?"  Eight Ball:  :  "It is certain!"

What's Goin' On?

Not much!  This Saturday marks the climatological peak day of the likelihood of a named tropical system in the Atlantic basin and it looks awfully quiet for this time of year.

 Take a look...

Two "X" mark a possibility of less than 40% to become named....so again, I ask...what's goin' on?  Well, there is a front that will help alleviate the uncomfortable conditions of heat and humidity that should pass through our region later Saturday night.  It is marked by the cloud band extending from the desert SW and west TX towards NY and New England.  Note the big boomers along this boundary...but the upper air will gently nudge this front through these parts by waking on Sunday morn.

But again I ask, "What's Goin' On?"  Not much for this time of year.  After the frontal passage, more of what we've seen for the last several weeks (seemingly months); a return to heat.  Here is the Euro's take on temperature anomalies for week 2 upcoming (map valid for Tuesday Sept 20 pm)...Looks awfully warm for the east.

So...what's goin on?  Brother, Father, Mother, Sister?  Let's ask Marvin Gaye!

Because not so much is in terms of the sensible weather in these parts aside from persistent heat, moderate to high humidity, and frankly a lucky hit (or miss) shower and mostly dry conditions!  So enjoy this MoTown classic and enjoy the 2nd weekend of HS and NCAA football.

Smitty

AA:  Not much to opine about in terms of the weather.  No tropical concerns at this time; a hit or miss storm to help your mowing conditions...that's about it...warmer than normal for next couple of weeks it seems...but a handful of days will reminds us fall is coming.

Labor Day Lulu

I know it's been quite awhile since I last opined; however, I felt compelled to share what I believe could be a major Jersey and Delmarva disaster that many seemingly are not heeding, at least from my perceptions.  I will be brief in how most regional and global models depict the evolution of Hurricane Hermine.  (By the way, I googled the meaning of this name as I was unfamiliar and Hermine means either "to travel" or "soldier" based on gender...).  The potential disaster for the eastern shore is a prolonged fetch of moderate to strong winds that will pile water into the bays behind the barrier islands.  Couple this with several tidal cycles, and extensive coastal flooding looks to be a near certainty!  Let me show some graphics.

First, I will show y'all the Euro ensembles of the low position come early Labor Day.  Obviously with 51 runs, there will be variance.  However, at 66 hours, there is strong agreement as to the general proximity of the storm just off the Delmarva.

And here is the operational as to its location and strength at the time shown above...

Now some of you might be saying that the depiction above is not so close to the coast and the worst effects will be offshore.  That is indeed true for the precipitation; however, with the moderate/strong wind and the persistence of said wind, the waves will build and continually pound the coastline for several days.  Take a look at the location 24 hours prior...

And 24 hours after finally pulling away...a weary traveler at best...

All 3 graphics above indicate wind gusts to around 60-70, certainly under the criteria of a hurricane. And as a result, "merely" tropical storm warnings have been posted along the seaboard at our latitude. Another reason that many might be taking this "lightly"...again, my perception.  Perhaps, a more strongly worded statement from the authorities might make the public more aware as to the potentially disastrous flooding that may ensue.

I will show just one surf map, but trust me, for roughly 84 hours, the wind and the waves look similar to the map shown below...

The graphic below shows the exceedance of extreme water levels to the upside from coastal tidal flooding.  The spike above the red-line (1 in 100 year event) in 1962 was from a nor'easter in March of that year; a famous meteorological and historic storm.  The spike in 2012 is from Sandy in October nearly 4 years ago.  It will be interesting to see how this storm ends up relative to those two prior east coast events.  The current tidal forecast for this particular locale is to exceed the yellow but fall short of the red lines.

Below, I'm including the buoy observations showing this approaching system with rapidly increasing winds and falling pressures.  This buoy data is just offshore of VA Beach as of early Saturday morning...

By the way, once all of this excitement passes, back to summer in these parts later next week.  Here is the temperature anomalies for Thursday's maxes.  Those of you who enjoy 90+F weather, you've got a few more coming before this summer is out.

OK...I'm out, but will leave you with a classic.  I couldn't resist!  It's worth the 7 minutes in my humble opinion...

OK, off to watch to the world awaken and a beautiful sunrise with another cup of Joe and MCT oil for my creamer.  Enjoy your Labor Day weekend and hopefully the weather cooperates back here on the Piedmont unlike what may unfold on our neighbors down along the coastal plain and eastern shore.

Smitty

AA:  Tropical Storm Hermine may be one for the record books and talked about among east coasters for many years to come.  Breezy and coolish for us with minimal rain...if any...from the system.  90+F wx to return next week!  See you Tuesday...