Labor Day Lulu

I know it's been quite awhile since I last opined; however, I felt compelled to share what I believe could be a major Jersey and Delmarva disaster that many seemingly are not heeding, at least from my perceptions.  I will be brief in how most regional and global models depict the evolution of Hurricane Hermine.  (By the way, I googled the meaning of this name as I was unfamiliar and Hermine means either "to travel" or "soldier" based on gender...).  The potential disaster for the eastern shore is a prolonged fetch of moderate to strong winds that will pile water into the bays behind the barrier islands.  Couple this with several tidal cycles, and extensive coastal flooding looks to be a near certainty!  Let me show some graphics.

First, I will show y'all the Euro ensembles of the low position come early Labor Day.  Obviously with 51 runs, there will be variance.  However, at 66 hours, there is strong agreement as to the general proximity of the storm just off the Delmarva.

And here is the operational as to its location and strength at the time shown above...

Now some of you might be saying that the depiction above is not so close to the coast and the worst effects will be offshore.  That is indeed true for the precipitation; however, with the moderate/strong wind and the persistence of said wind, the waves will build and continually pound the coastline for several days.  Take a look at the location 24 hours prior...

And 24 hours after finally pulling away...a weary traveler at best...

All 3 graphics above indicate wind gusts to around 60-70, certainly under the criteria of a hurricane. And as a result, "merely" tropical storm warnings have been posted along the seaboard at our latitude. Another reason that many might be taking this "lightly"...again, my perception.  Perhaps, a more strongly worded statement from the authorities might make the public more aware as to the potentially disastrous flooding that may ensue.

I will show just one surf map, but trust me, for roughly 84 hours, the wind and the waves look similar to the map shown below...

The graphic below shows the exceedance of extreme water levels to the upside from coastal tidal flooding.  The spike above the red-line (1 in 100 year event) in 1962 was from a nor'easter in March of that year; a famous meteorological and historic storm.  The spike in 2012 is from Sandy in October nearly 4 years ago.  It will be interesting to see how this storm ends up relative to those two prior east coast events.  The current tidal forecast for this particular locale is to exceed the yellow but fall short of the red lines.

Below, I'm including the buoy observations showing this approaching system with rapidly increasing winds and falling pressures.  This buoy data is just offshore of VA Beach as of early Saturday morning...

By the way, once all of this excitement passes, back to summer in these parts later next week.  Here is the temperature anomalies for Thursday's maxes.  Those of you who enjoy 90+F weather, you've got a few more coming before this summer is out.

OK...I'm out, but will leave you with a classic.  I couldn't resist!  It's worth the 7 minutes in my humble opinion...

OK, off to watch to the world awaken and a beautiful sunrise with another cup of Joe and MCT oil for my creamer.  Enjoy your Labor Day weekend and hopefully the weather cooperates back here on the Piedmont unlike what may unfold on our neighbors down along the coastal plain and eastern shore.

Smitty

AA:  Tropical Storm Hermine may be one for the record books and talked about among east coasters for many years to come.  Breezy and coolish for us with minimal rain...if any...from the system.  90+F wx to return next week!  See you Tuesday...