Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
Just a little different post to make sure y'all stay somewhat informed as to what is ACTUALLY occurring in terms of global ice melt, especially in the polar regions of our planet. In spite of the present political climate concerning "green energy" and the like, I simply want y'all to see graphically what is occurring with the earth's sea ice; nothing more, nothing less. You see, the earth's heat balance is simply a "zero sum" game meaning that while there will be areas of heat and areas of cold, the final result over a certain period of time will balance out to, well, zero net. It's actually quite involved, but to keep it simple, energy in = energy out. Sometimes we here in the middle latitudes find ourselves between a lower energy air mass to our north and west while one with greater energy, often to our south and loaded with water vapor want to collide and we caught in between experience all heck breaking loose. This is nature's way of balancing that energy...as is the polar ice ebbing and flowing over the decades! Remember when this politician seen below made preposterous claims that the North Pole would be 'ice-free" by 2013! Gore cited "man-made global warming" would create such warming of the planet that polar ice would reduce to zero in the melt season at our north pole! Many other media outlets touted this claim as well!
Well Al, I have some inconvenient graphics to show you! First, the current arctic sea ice level as compared to the last 10 years...nearly the greatest amount of ice in a decade at this time of the year! As you can see, 2014 is the BLACK LINE and although melting at a quicker rate than recent weeks, still near the highest levels in the last decade!
Here is the total northern hemispheric ice...basically Greenland included...oh yeah, still quite healthy in terms of areal coverage!
When comparing the northern hemispheric sea ice to the satellite era averages, well, yes, we are below the "norms", but not quite to ZERO! And the trend over the last decade is clearly obvious, but now tends to be leveling off.
And the last time I checked, Antarctica was part of this globe! Well, look at how global warming has affected our southern hemispheric counterparts! 1.8 million square km above the satellite era "norms"! Wow!
And using a similar graphic as the one for the arctic, note how the ice has increased greatly around Antarctica in the recent years! As the oceans slosh back and forth, their heat content distributed about the globe, melting and re-freeze are a direct consequence! Zero sum game...
Speaking of games, gotta love those Os as they took another series from an American league foe, gained another game on the 1st place Blue Jays and looking forward to some very winnable contests versus the Rays and the Rangers! Sorry I digress...nice HR walk-off Monday and a wild-pitch walk-off Wednesday! Let's Go Os!
OK...gonna run. Enjoy your slightly cooler and slightly drier air of Thursday through Sunday. Heat & humidity will return by early next week, but nothing extreme...here you can see the drier air bleeding south from New England & O Canada by this weekend.
And here's hoping the US Soccer team advances into the next round...
Smitty
AA: Global warming has helped keep the grass-cutters in business! More rain + more heat = more profit! Os are 6 games over the Sox; 1.5 behind the Jays!
Really, not much to say here other than we are settling into a pattern of typical summertime wx. Humidity will fluctuate from quite steamy at times to brief periods of dry relief. The bulk of the time, dew points will remain in the 62°-68°F range for the next week. Temps will fall within a few degrees of climatological averages as well over the next week or so. Frankly, this is just what most people picture as summertime wx. Today, most of PA is in an excessive rainfall forecast zone...(afternoon thunderstorms accompanying a cool/dry frontal passage...)
But over the next week, the only precip that will fall is from any thunderstorm that can develop from the borderline unstable air that gets created from the heating of the day. Here is the total precip as progged by the Euro for the next week. I believe a slightly drier time is on the way for the next week as the "storm track" is displaced further north across southern O Canada. Keep in mind on the graphic below that most of the rain shown in the northeast is what is likely to fall today and tonight...there are hints at some tropical influence along the west coast of the Gulf of Mexico.
So why the moosha-moosha wx? A rather large upper level sub-tropical high pressure will keep the SE quadrant of the US under a relatively benign regime of wx. Both the Euro and the GFS are in good agreement with all of this...here is the 500 mb level from the GFS for Saturday afternoon...
And the Euro for the same time. Very good agreement! The upper low off the New England coast will try to help keep some drier air in place across New England and down the coast into eastern PA. Again note the poleward bulge of the isobars (RIDGE) over the eastern third of the USA...
In the above 500 mb progs, also note the cool pool out to the northwest of PA over the northern plains. Both the Euro and the GFS bring this ESE and shear it out so that a zonal (west to east) flow with an ever so slight WNW bias will dominate the flow into next week. This is a relatively warm to potentially hot flow dependant on the upstream surface temps. However, with all of the rain that has fallen in the northern plain, extremely hot wx will be hard to come by. So I'm looking at a typical summertime pattern of mid 80s by day; mid 60s by the early am. Look at this rainfall over the plains from the last 30 days, most of which fell within the last week with all of the severe wx over the central and northern plains! Heat is difficult to develop over wet ground...and look for some good agricultural yields as this pattern looks likely to continue...
Both the Euro and the GFS wash out the cool pool towards PA...1st the Euro...
And now the GFS...
Again, fairly remarkable agreement for a week out...note the tropical development in the eastern Pacific off the west coast of Mexico...but as long as cool pools continue to advect SE from central O Canada, any real heat will have trouble to hit and stick for any length of time...look at the deviation from norms of this cool pool over the northern plains. This will certainly beat back any attempt of a major heat wave...but this is a nice healthy sub tropical high over the SE US...(valid this weekend)...
So typical summer weather; lets root for a not so typical World Cup outcome Thursday! Everyone says the US will be no match for Germany and that might be the case...but like they say in the sporting biz..."that's why you play the game"...or match...sorry; this world football thing is new to this soccer novice! But I'll be cheering on the Red White and Blue and hopefully they will advance into the knockout round with a competitive game against the Germans...& a little help from Portugal...?
Enjoy your mid-week...and your typical summer wx...
Smitty
AA: Some thunderstorms Wed. afternoon and night. Then some "normal" summer weather for the next week. Time to catch up on the mowing!
Those of you familiar with this Todd Rundgren song, well nothing more needs to be said. I have wrestled with posting for quite awhile. Many still ask my opinion on the wx, in which I feel very humbled. I am still studying the wx picture nearly every day; some days more so than others. Those of you in my fantasy baseball circles surely know that I'm not studying, analyzing, or otherwise on the top of my game in that pursuit! Partly "Buzzard's Luck" and mostly mismanagement! But as for the wx, I am still looking at this on a consistent basis. And so, I'm going to TRY to put out a blog post in a somewhat more regular fashion during the summer months to see if being away has been a brief divergence of the desk top computer or I've simply lost the passion to opine as deeply about the wx. I will say that Twitter has made me "lazy" as I can put out a quick map, statement, etc whilst I'm on the go and not be tied down to the Logitech Keyboard. Remember, you can follow me @SmittysSynopsis in the "Twitter-sphere".
Ah yes, the Summer Solstice! At 6:51 am Saturday morn, the sun's vertical ray has progressed as close to our latitude as it ever will for the next 365 days. That said, from this point forward, the days will be slowly be getting shorter and shorter. I mean in all honestly, twilight astronomically runs from about 3:30 am until 10:45 pm around this time, meaning that the sky and stellar observation are somewhat obscured by the sun's scattered light since it is not too deep below the northern horizon! You can clearly see the NE horizon become illuminated by 4:30 am! So early summer has arrived, but not the early summer heat...yet. Take a look at the early am temps across PA this morning...
And the modeling has been very inconsistent in what the upcoming weeks may offer temperature wise. You see, the major driving forces of the jet streams and the global distribution of heat around the entire globe are the major oceans of this planet. As over 70% of this world is covered with this magical substance we nonchalantly call water, it has a very unique way of moving and distributing the heat or lack thereof around the globe. Most of you have heard of the El Nino/La Nina. This is an oscillation of the equatorial Pacific waters sloshing slowly back and forth in the Pacific Ocean basin. Trying to understand the El Nino status greatly enables meteorologists to hone in on longer term trends in the atmosphere. I'll not bore you further, but the equatorial Pacific signalling has been rather chaotic to some extent as well, thus the computer models are having a bit more difficult task at trying to note trends and patterns with the upcoming wx. Take a look at the skill scores of the 500 mb winds/pressures from both the GFS & the Euro from the past several weeks...90% threshold is goal.
EURO...(my go to model of choice many times)
GFS...
and even the Canuck...
Notice how poorly ALL of the modeling has been doing in the 5 day forecast recently...the Euro is certainly the best of the bunch in a very objective verification. But when it is wrong, it is very wrong!
So what does the Euro say? Glad you asked...temps going up to be sure...but how much so? From the first map in this post, temps can only increase from these current levels. What I'm going to do is show you the current map and the 10 day forecast for a few different parameters. First, the 850 mb temps or what the atmosphere's temperature is roughly a mile above the surface of the earth.
Current:
10 days hence:
A much warmer time...
Here is the 500 mb pattern; this is what is occurring in the mid-levels of the atmosphere...
Current:
10 days out:
Again, a much warmer look. In fact, this type of flow often gives us a hot and relatively low humidity type wx regime as the flow is "over the top" so to speak with a northwesterly trajectory.
And the anomalies...or the deviations from the norms...as run by the ensembles for the 850 temps...
Current:
10 days forward...
Again...a warming signal...but not overly hot...Here is a map as to where we stand essentially so far for this current month...just about spot on for PA; much cooler than normal in the northern plains!
Europe (w/ the exception of GB) has been much below normal!
And the precip over the last several months has been quite abundant in these parts as evidenced by the constant droning of mower engines!
In fact, a close-up here of PA shows the the Lower Susquehanna Valley has been quite wet!
The graph below shows the accumulated precip at Philly for the last several months...note how since May 1, the rainfall has become quite consistent creating ~7" surplus YTD. Soil moisture is good in these parts!
OK...enough said. I'll leave y'all with this Todd Rundgren classic from my opening title. Enjoy this flashback! Man, this was a strange one! YOWZA!
And enjoy your first full day of summer 2014!
Smitty
AA: Becoming warmer over the next couple of days; then possibly getting quite warm to hot nearer to first week of July. Sox better start hitting!
Well, don't look now, but there WILL be yet another atmospheric opportunity to deliver some winter weary pain and suffering to those of us in south central PA later on Sunday. As I've mentioned to some of you in passing today, I feel that a few snowflakes might mix in the rainfall later on Sunday. As I am seeing things right now, if, AND THAT IS A BIG IF, everything would pull together, we could have one quick heavy wet snow dump Sunday afternoon/evening. It doesn't look too likely, but the potential most certainly exists!
I'll show some very quick maps from the GFS...whenever there is such a strong upper closed low in this position, and as we are still at a point when the upper air is still very cold, one must be wary.
First, 500 mb for Sunday morning...this is a perfect set-up for yet another east coast storm!
Here is the surface map for the same time...Sunday morning...there won't be Blue Skies although bells should be ringing everywhere...
Then the upper air 12 hours later Sunday evening...
And the surface reflection at the same time...this is the period where the snow could fall fast enough and heavy enough to cause accumulations in the LSV if all things worked together!
But don't worry, Opening Day in many venues should be just fine as evidenced by this 500 mb ridge over the Ohio Valley translating eastward..(as the ocean storm begins to fill!)...
And the surface for Monday afternoon...(snow still in central and northern New England!)...
There is ample fuel for this potential fire! Current radar snapshot...
Here is HPC's forecast for liquid sunshine through the weekend...ouch!
OK...gotta start my week's end. And I'm sure some of you have figured what I'm leaving you with from my reference above...enjoy!
And enjoy your Opening Day weekend...MLB style!
Smitty
AA: Rainy and raw weekend. Good to get the grass growing soon! Could snow Sunday in these parts! But don't worry, it'll clear out and be quite pleasant for the Os to take the Sox on Monday!
I mean just because KMDT isn't getting hammered with 6"-10" of wind-swept blinding snows, it IS still a major weather event for the eastern seaboard and all coastal and marine interests along the US and the Canadian maritimes. As I sit here and pound the keys, the visibility out my window varies from 0.5-1.0 miles in light snow. The temp is a balmy 29°F and the air is simply raw...or more objectively, ~25°F below the 30 year average! Even if you don't like the weather, I think most would agree that you can be impressed with the meteorology! Take a look from top-side!
Our snow that is falling is from the height falls from the upper level 500 mb low digging SE into the fuel AKA water vapor that is simply just a smidgen too far east to create greater snowfalls here in the northern mid-Atlantic. You can clearly see on the above satellite pic the beginning of storm formation, or cyclogenesis and the baroclinic leaf directly over KMDT! 24 hrs from now, this will be one deep nor'easter 200 miles east of Bean-Town! Here is the 500 mb initialization showing where on the "business side" (east) of the trough, the greatest ascending air is occurring. That's a nice tight little vort max over western KT...I wonder if the Hilltoppers know what that even is! But they sure know BB!
Anyway...take a look at how this 500 mb is progged to evolve by tomorrow morning at sunrise! That is a closed 500 mb low with a negatively tilted trough that will create the monster storm in the north Atlantic! Again, the meteorology is awesome!
And the surface map will look like this in terms of air pressure and wind speeds just above the ground level...pretty intense, but its just getting going!
Here is an animation of how this monster will evolve in terms of surface pressure and low level winds...
For us, cold and wind! Oh, we'll see some snow until midnight, but the action is clearly along the New England coast, Cape Cod (they'll be some more wooden bats available once this blows through!), and the O Canadian maritimes! Blizzard warnings for coastal sections, high wind warnings for the interior sections, and Gale & Storm Warnings, along with Hurricane Force Storm Warnings for the mariners. Take a look at the Christmas Tree like coloration of the warning map for the northeast! By the way, that is an extensive area of freeze warnings across Dixie! Again, isn't the energy of the atmosphere impressive!
Now the good news...many times it takes a major...and I do mean major atmospheric disturbance to rearrange the upper levels and adjust the pattern so that the energy becomes more evenly distributed into different regions of the globe. Contrary to the GW experts like Al Gore, the energy balance for the planet is a zero-sum game in the long run and this pattern shift is likely to help us enjoy some more seasonal temps and possibly even a more spring-like pattern over the next week once this cold lifts out. Below, the Euro ensembles indicate a slightly above normal 850 mb temp which would lead to normal to slightly above normal temps over the weekend into next week. The GFS is not nearly as warm, but it's some hope. Both however, show a cooling trend back towards the middle of April...time will tell.
But March has been cold as the graphic below will attest...remember...basically double the anomaly since it is in °C...man, its been a cold March!
OK...I've tried to sell y'all how impressive this storm truly is. But it is the way of our atmosphere; has been...and always will be. Especially at this time of year when the arctic wants to still flex its muscle and the tropics want to root on the start of MLB! So just to get everybody into a little springtime mode and to forget about the next 2 mornings of what will once again be brutal chill at sunrise as the cold gets whipped in on the backside of this powerful nor'easter, listen and enjoy this "springtime" ditty! (They might need some water soon...different post for a different day...but look at the map above...HINT!)
OK...gotta run! I have 2 Four-legged ones reminding me its Din-Din time! Their circadian rhythms seem to working just fine thank you...
Enjoy your mid-week and appreciate the meteorology...please!
Smitty
AA: A very powerful nor'easter to blow up off the coast of New England. Windy and cold wx will be the biggest impact here. Then a moderating trend into the middle of next week. Nothing crazy warm, but slightly above the seasonal norms. I'll take anything to have my furnace rest...but those who know me say it's been resting all winter!
