Typical Summer Weather

Really, not much to say here other than we are settling into a pattern of typical summertime wx.  Humidity will fluctuate from quite steamy at times to brief periods of dry relief.  The bulk of the time, dew points will remain in the 62°-68°F range for the next week.  Temps will fall within a few degrees of climatological averages as well over the next week or so.  Frankly, this is just what most people picture as summertime wx.  Today, most of PA is in an excessive rainfall forecast zone...(afternoon thunderstorms accompanying a cool/dry frontal passage...)

But over the next week, the only precip that will fall is from any thunderstorm that can develop from the borderline unstable air that gets created from the heating of the day.  Here is the total precip as progged by the Euro for the next week.  I believe a slightly drier time is on the way for the next week as the "storm track" is displaced further north across southern O Canada.  Keep in mind on the graphic below that most of the rain shown in the northeast is what is likely to fall today and tonight...there are hints at some tropical influence along the west coast of the Gulf of Mexico.

So why the moosha-moosha wx?  A rather large upper level sub-tropical high pressure will keep the SE quadrant of the US under a relatively benign regime of wx.  Both the Euro and the GFS are in good agreement with all of this...here is the 500 mb level from the GFS for Saturday afternoon...

And the Euro for the same time.  Very good agreement!  The upper low off the New England coast will try to help keep some drier air in place across New England and down the coast into eastern PA.  Again note the poleward bulge of the isobars (RIDGE) over the eastern third of the USA...

In the above 500 mb progs, also note the cool pool out to the northwest of PA over the northern plains.  Both the Euro and the GFS bring this ESE and shear it out so that a zonal (west to east) flow with an ever so slight WNW bias will dominate the flow into next week.  This is a relatively warm to potentially hot flow dependant on the upstream surface temps.  However, with all of the rain that has fallen in the northern plain, extremely hot wx will be hard to come by.  So I'm looking at a typical summertime pattern of mid 80s by day; mid 60s by the early am.  Look at this rainfall over the plains from the last 30 days, most of which fell within the last week with all of the severe wx over the central and northern plains!  Heat is difficult to develop over wet ground...and look for some good agricultural yields as this pattern looks likely to continue...

Both the Euro and the GFS wash out the cool pool towards PA...1st the Euro...

And now the GFS...

Again, fairly remarkable agreement for a week out...note the tropical development in the eastern Pacific off the west coast of Mexico...but as long as cool pools continue to advect SE from central O Canada, any real heat will have trouble to hit and stick for any length of time...look at the deviation from norms of this cool pool over the northern plains.  This will certainly beat back any attempt of a major heat wave...but this is a nice healthy sub tropical high over the SE US...(valid this weekend)...

So typical summer weather; lets root for a not so typical World Cup outcome Thursday!  Everyone says the US will be no match for Germany and that might be the case...but like they say in the sporting biz..."that's why you play the game"...or match...sorry; this world football thing is new to this soccer novice!  But I'll be cheering on the Red White and Blue and hopefully they will advance into the knockout round with a competitive game against the Germans...& a little help from Portugal...?

Enjoy your mid-week...and your typical summer wx...

Smitty

AA:  Some thunderstorms Wed. afternoon and night.  Then some "normal" summer weather for the next week.  Time to catch up on the mowing!