Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
Or should we call it "Native North American" Summer being politically correct and all of that sort of thing seeing that it is the high tide of the political season and therefore political correctness runs rampant in these parts! However, back to the point of an above normal spell of temps after the first frost. Now that we have had 2 frosts, any mild spell will most certainly qualify for NNAS. The 1st map below shows the temperature anomaly for the 850 mb temps (1 mile up) for Wednesday...
As you can see, the greatest deviations from normal will be centered over the Great Lakes. However, we here in PA will be basking in a rather glorious experience of NNAS. And after another Pacific front passes through on/about Friday, the Euro seems to think another ridge will pop here in the east and yet another surge of NNAS. Take a look...for the day before Halloween...Also note the gathering cold in O Canada.
The Euro also suggests that the upper atmosphere will have higher than normal heights here in the east suggesting another surge of NNAS until the gathering cold can translate eastward across the continent...
Next Friday still looks to be warm if you believe the American GFS. Here is the prog of the GFS Friday 2m temps...this suggests temps easily to be in the low 70s! But look at that -30F to normal cold eyeing up the western high plains!
Clearly, a front can be seen passing through PA next Sunday as the GFS 2 m temps would indicate. I also wouldn't think that any "fair-weathered" critters would want to be Alberta Bound with sub-freezing temps being forecast by the global modeling for next weekend in that province! Lovers of NNAS would be heading to New England instead!
And although the timing and progression of the air masses are in contradiction with both the Euro and the GFS, it still appears that the 1st week of November will feature below to much below normal cold as shown with the 500 mb map below. Some true Arctic cold will be developing over the western part of the continent. Also note the tropical disturbance in the eastern Pacific. It might just be a Halloween trick for those vacationing in Cabo!
So there you have it...a nice spell of NNAS followed by an abrupt change to some rather cold air that will be gathering in the northern portions of O Canada...Nunavut and the NW Territories to be specific, home to truly incredible Native North Americans! Listen, with communities named "Igloolik" and "Whale Cove", you know that you are most definitely in NNA country!
Earlier, I made a reference to one of my favorite singer/songwriter's numerous ballads; Alberta Bound released in 1972 by Gordon Lightfoot. I will leave y'all with this...and I hope this gets you up and moving this autumnal Saturday morning! (Not fond of the graphics; love the tune!) Enjoy...
And enjoy your week's end...Go PSU, Temple, Ravens, Giants (SF Baseball), & Flyers.....Oh...that's right...forgot...no NHL for awhile. Then how about Go Lady Rams Field Hockey as they enter District 3 play beginning this Tuesday!
Smitty
AA: Nice week of Indian Summer coming up. A rather quick transition to some below normal temps around Halloween.
Just a very brief post to share with y'all what is simply an awe inspiring sight of the atmosphere; namely a mid-latitude cyclone. Look at the expansive region this gyre affects and from last evening's rains and storms; how far and wide its effects can be felt. It is quite the view...
And this is how the upper air maps are represented as a result of this cyclone in all levels of the atmosphere...1st the 250 mb level showing the counterclockwise wind flow around the low pressure...
The 300 mb jet stream level...quite a powerful jet driving in Pacific air into western North America. Also, a nice little jet streak on the eastern side of the cyclone to help promote upward motion and possibly some enhanced rainfall later on...
Now the 500 mb vorticity...this is where one tries to locate the vorticity maximum and figure where the greatest amount of upward motion will occur..."X" marks the spot of the vort max...
At 700 mb, mets use this level to look for "active clouds" or areas likely to support precipitation...the deepest green likely has precip falling underneath in some way, shape, or form...
The form of precip is often determined by the 850 mb chart. At one mile up, if the temps are below freezing, frozen precip could actually make it to the surface if the entire column of air could support frozen precip. it's just a bit too early for this, but a cold November lurks after next week's bout of Indian Summer!
Lastly, the surface and the 850 mb temps...the blue line is below freezing and the red line is well above freezing one mile up. Note the 10ºC isotherm over eastern PA; hence the thunderstorms last evening along with the rapid upward motion that produced the 1"+ rains in the KMDT area...!
So once we get through this unsettled weekend, enjoy our spell of Indian Summer as the hounds of winter will be lurking just to the NW for later next week and certainly the 1st week of November...below is for Halloween!
Happy Week's End!
Smitty
AA: Looking at a cyclone of all levels of the atmosphere!
Just a very quick post to alert y'all that this upcoming month of November has the potential to be quite cold! If the modeling verifies even remotely, then we will experience a rather intense and widespread lake effect outbreak early in the month and the continual NW flow at all levels will drive ARCTIC air south and east across the lakes and into the Mid-Atlantic and NE! Here is the 15 day anomaly for temps...please understand that the further out in time one goes, the modeling tends to gravitate to the "means". So to see an anomaly of this quantity is rare indeed...that is one cold looking map!
And just to show you one of the many medium range members of the GFS ensembles....wow!
But next week will be the best of what mid-autumn can offer! Look at the temp anomaly to the upside for the middle of next week! Quite mild...don't cha think? Also note the gathering gloom up in BC getting ready to drive itself SE!
Now here is the upper air flow 15 days out. Again, a regression to the means is in order and a zonal flow appears to be occurring. However, note the "warm" anomaly near Alaska...when that occurs, the lower 48 can get drilled with a direct discharge of Arctic air that even at this early in cold wx season can actually be QUITE COLD!
So to me, it is now starting to appear that at the very least, the 1st part of November will be quite cold when comparing to the "norms"! And many of us have not experienced a cold November in a few years. This is just the temperature anomalies over just the last 2 years...Wow...that is a mild, and lake effect free map!
So if this World Series ends up being the Cards vs Tigers...it could be one awfully cold WS 2012! Playing baseball is risky in the lower 48 during the month of November...ESPECIALLY in towns that are continental (St. Louis) or of northern climes (Detroit). And is anyone really surprised that A-Rod is not playing to his $30 million paycheck should suggest? Once that cheater can no longer take the juice, he's just as ordinary as any other 30 something player whose bat speed has slowed commensurate with their age! As the Trumpster would tell him..."You're Fired"!
Enjoy your week's end! The wx next week will be awesome! (Except for some rain next Tuesday...).
Smitty
AA: A bit of rain Thursday night into Friday am...then a bit unsettled weekend...but getting better next week with the exception of some rain next Tuesday pm...I believe the 1st part of November looks to be quite cold in these parts!
This is a very quick post (since I am under the wx) to update everyone as to the potency of the cold air masses that will invade the eastern part of North America over the next 2 weeks. First, I will show you maps of temperature normalized anomalies in DEGREES FAHRENHEIT for the next week at different days...so here goes...first for Sunday...quite chilly with snow falling or have fallen over the mtns of PA to the tune of a couple of inches on the highest ground...
Then this upcoming Thursday...the purplish color is ~15-20ºF below the norms...
How about next Saturday...if this verifies, it will be max temps in the mid 40s for us near KMDT!
Now...in degrees Celsius...the average of the next 8 days...(Remember the are 1.8 degrees F for every 1.0 C...so basically look at the scale and double it for the F equivalent...its a good guesstimate...sort of...).
And then for the 2nd week or days 8-16...
When you take all 16 days coming up according to the modeling and average the temperature anomalies, it looks something like this...that is one cold month of October east of the Rockies!
OK...and if the early season chill is not enough for y'all, check out this you tube video for a taste of the properties of this air mass moving south and east!
And enjoy the Cool Columbus Day weekend...Sunday will be raw...will not make it to 50ºF!
Enjoy the next couple of days because the wx will turn sour over the weekend. The modeling is in remarkably good agreement with the synoptics and the timing of these features, so the confidence is rather high in what should transpire over the next several days. After we reach a max temp today (Wed) in the low to mid 80s...yes that's right...the temps and the humidity will back down the next 2 days making Thursday and Friday splendid fall days. Although there is a slight chance of showers Thursday morning, most of the next 3 days will be rain free. Take a look at the SREF plumes...
Then, a rather potent front will be making its way across PA on Saturday. Along with that will be widespread showers and some gusty conditions following the frontal passage. Here are the temps one mile up as per the Euro model for Saturday. Note the strong temperature gradient...ie...the front!
And the Euro spins up a little storm along the front as seen in the model below for Sunday. This will give us a rather cloudy and rainy day of sorts for Sunday, especially in the morning hours...
...and EVEN SNOW across the northern parts of PA! Wow! The snowfall will be even greater in parts of the interior further northeast; say like up in New England and the Adirondacks! Also note the deep snow pack beginning north of Lake Superior in O Canada!
Here is the official forecast for max temps for Sunday. Note that a large part of western PA stays in the 40s for highs! It's early for this type of chill!
And here is how the NWS handles the official map for Saturday with the frontal passage. They have the position of the front east of central PA by late morning. I believe the passage will be more like midday. The little wave down in LA and the deep south will be the rainmaker for us on Sunday...
So there you have it warm followed by cold and damp! But I must quickly leave you with this. I was listening to XM baseball this morning on my commute and the discussion was whether Migs Cabrera or Mike Trout should be the AL MVP? Cabrera looks as if he will win THE TRIPLE CROWN! Are you kidding? This guy is by far the best offensive player in all of baseball and is earning a baseball title that only few have ever earned (16 I believe) and most of those triple crown winners were NOT FROM Modern baseball times! Carl Yazstremski in 1967 was the last TC winner! So this is a no brainer for me...
Enjoy your warm wx as this week comes to a close...
Smitty
AA: Nice for a couple of days; the a cool and damp weekend! Cabrera should easily be the MVP! A TC winner...c'mon!
For those of you who like summer, you'll experience summer's last gasp Wednesday into Thursday. Take a look at the temperature's forecast by the GFS for tomorrow...~15ºF above normal! The low 80s look like a real possibility! And it will be humid to boot...so enjoy the warmth if that's your style!
Because the wx will be quickly transitioning to autumn and will be doing so with some rather chilly air coming down from O Cananda! Here are the temps forecast for this Saturday...Look at those cold colors over the high plains! -21ºF+ from normal...WOW!
And here in PA for Columbus Day, we are looking at middle of Novemeber wx for that celebration!
And the below normal temps last into the foreseeable future...here is the following weekend!
Man alive, if the Detroit Tigers make a deep run into the playoffs, there could be some rather chilly...albeit downright cold baseball being played into the middle or late October! At least Detroit isn't leeward in any favored lake effect belts! The modeling most certainly sees the coldness of this air mass as it tries to put down a little of winter's wonder over northern PA this upcoming weekend! The cold air and the upper air dynamics do make this a rather distinct and intriguing possibility!
Climbing Angel Falls on the Loyalsock Trail would be an awesome trip with snow around in the higher elevations of Lycoming and Sullivan Counties in north central PA! It would be a shame to lose the spectacular fall folliage as seen overlooking Canyon Vista...
But isn't this just a bit crazy? The Loyalsock Trail is now re-routed away from Angel Falls due to overuse in the area...but it is still one incredible geologic feature to scope in Penn's Woods!
And this is one incredible meteorological feature...a large deep trough forecast by the GFS for later this weekend into Columbus Day! It certainly has the cross polar signature...
Even the CPC agrees the cold is a-comin'!
Remeber last winter when Alaska was brutally cold and we were experiencing a rather beneign winter! Well, look at AK in the above graphic! When its cold here, its "mild" there and vice versa...
So there you have it. Enjoy the last regular season day of MLB and the summer time warmth because the bottom looks to be dropping out and autumn will arrive with a nasty outbreak of unseasonably chilly wx for Columbus Day weekend. Saturday will be a wet transitional day into a rather autumnal Sunday-Tuesday period! Good football wx...so they say!
Enjoy some warm apple cider...fermented or otherwise...
...and this ditty from Neil Young singing about the moon we just experienced last weekend!
Enjoy your mid-week!
Smitty
AA: Warm to uncomfortable Wednesday...followed by a cool down through Friday...then becoming quite fall-like for Sunday on...
Ah yes...I love the names of these "Super Typhoons" in the western Pacific. Jelawat...sounds like a new meteorological unit describing the incredible amount of power the atmosphere releases during one of these enormous tropical storms. I know; I hear some of you reading this right now saying, "Whaaat, whaaat?"...How about James Watt (1736-1819), engineer extraordinaire! The inventor of efficient & powerful steam engines, the concept of horsepower, and the SI unit of power we all commonly refer to as a Watt! I wonder if he invented the "Power I" and 3 yards in a cloud of dust as well? Sorry, I digress...
Onto my point about Typhoon Jelawat...he/she, I'm not really sure which, will most certainly affect the long wave pattern over the north Pacific the next week and thus we will feel the downstream effects ushered upon us as a result of the typhoon's energy becoming entrained into the upper air pattern. You can clearly see the energy in the upper air initialization as seen below...look over by Japan and the deep red circle...that is the typhoon.
And here is the typhoon...
...and its proposed track re-curving along the Asian continent.
Most, if not all, times of the year when a storm of this strength moves NE along the Asian continent, it drives a ridge up into western O Canada and then allows an unleashing of polar air towards the eastern part of North America. And the modeling seems to think this will once again be the case. As you can see above, there is a bubble of lower than normal heights presently over us and anyone who spent Thursday and Friday outside in these parts noticed how quickly the air mass changed by later Friday evening on a fresh NW wind. (In fact, some even believed there was a bit of a windchill perceived during Friday Night Lights!) Here are the depicted upper air charts from both the Euro and the GFS for 10 days out...both show a rather deep trough here in the eastern NA! Note also the huge ridge over western O Canada...
So how does that look at the surface in terms of temps? Well, I'm glad you asked. Here are a series of maps starting with Sunday (September 30) of temps compared to normals. The 1st week of October puts normal maxes into the upper 60s and the normal mins ~50ºF. The maps below are the average of all the ensembles which tend to dampen the extremes of individual runs and thus are called the Ensemble Mean. These runs are most certainly suggesting once past this upcoming midweek period, the 1st 2 weeks of October look to be most assuredly BELOW NORMAL here near KMDT! And even NOAA's CPC agrees! Amazing for them to even deviate from anything that remotely suggests cooler than normal wx...if you catch my drift! Below is a brutally cool 8-14 day outlook for early autumn! That map would also suggest a widespread Lake Effect outbreak over the northern lakes!
And now here are the ensemble means...first for Sunday...
The warmest day of the next 3 weeks...and possibly until next April will be Wednesday...
By next weekend, the temps will cool off once again; possibly to levels that allow for frosts in much of south central PA. Wow! That is some WIDESPREAD anomalous cold!
And it continues until the middle of October if you believe the modeling...get ready for some cool/cold MLB playoff games in Baltimore, Washington, and or NY!
In fact, the 7 day running mean (average of 7 days' of mean temps) looks very much below normal!
That above map is very cool as is this project below called "Starry Night" from Alex Parker, a post-doctoral fellow at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, who created this mosaic-style image out of publicly available downloads of NASA’s top 100 images from the Hubble Space Telescope in celebration of Hubble’s 22nd birthday!
And here is the close-up of the images...pretty wild!
When I read/saw this, I was very much intrigued! Especially since a week ago I pulled out an album from the old music stash and dusted off Don McLean's ballad...I hope you enjoy it as I did!
And enjoy your week's end while rooting on those Baltimore Birds since the "Sillies" season is now officially reckoned as "fail".
Smitty
AA: After a brief warm up this upcoming midweek period, temps will be much below normal into the middle of October. Good for hunting the over populated 4 legged critters roaming PA's woods, fields, and developments!
