Warm Last week of October; Then COLD!

Just a very quick post to alert y'all that this upcoming month of November has the potential to be quite cold!  If the modeling verifies even remotely, then we will experience a rather intense and widespread lake effect outbreak early in the month and the continual NW flow at all levels will drive ARCTIC air south and east across the lakes and into the Mid-Atlantic and NE!  Here is the 15 day anomaly for temps...please understand that the further out in time one goes, the modeling tends to gravitate to the "means".  So to see an anomaly of this quantity is rare indeed...that is one cold looking map!

And just to show you one of the many medium range members of the GFS ensembles....wow!

But next week will be the best of what mid-autumn can offer!  Look at the temp anomaly to the upside for the middle of next week!  Quite mild...don't cha think?  Also note the gathering gloom up in BC getting ready to drive itself SE!

Now here is the upper air flow 15 days out.  Again, a regression to the means is in order and a zonal flow appears to be occurring.  However, note the "warm" anomaly near Alaska...when that occurs, the lower 48 can get drilled with a direct discharge of Arctic air that even at this early in cold wx season can actually be QUITE COLD!

So to me, it is now starting to appear that at the very least, the 1st part of November will be quite cold when comparing to the "norms"!  And many of us have not experienced a cold November in a few years.  This is just the temperature anomalies over just the last 2 years...Wow...that is a mild, and lake effect free map!

So if this World Series ends up being the Cards vs Tigers...it could be one awfully cold WS 2012!  Playing baseball is risky in the lower 48 during the month of November...ESPECIALLY in towns that are continental (St. Louis) or of northern climes (Detroit).  And is anyone really surprised that A-Rod is not playing to his $30 million paycheck should suggest?  Once that cheater can no longer take the juice, he's just as ordinary as any other 30 something player whose bat speed has slowed commensurate with their age!  As the Trumpster would tell him..."You're Fired"!

Enjoy your week's end!  The wx next week will be awesome!  (Except for some rain next Tuesday...).

Smitty

AA:  A bit of rain Thursday night into Friday am...then a bit unsettled weekend...but getting better next week with the exception of some rain next Tuesday pm...I believe the 1st part of November looks to be quite cold in these parts!