A Brief Discourse Concerning Dorian

I use the word "brief" in the title because I could greatly expound on the topic of Dorian and what I've heard concerning this major and devastating hurricane over the last several days.  However, I will try to be brief so as to not take up too much of my loyal reader's precious time...I know some of you are at "Teacher Detention" as I sit and type this out which was often a true time kill to be sure...

First, I heard so much about Dorian's track and how erratic it was.  Actually, Dorian, and all other hurricanes are simply blobs of atmospheric heat and humidity that move thanks to the weak steering winds in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere that gently nudge them along. (Think of a cork floating and drifting in a relatively calm pool of water.)  If the upper winds are too strong, shearing phenomena often will decimate the storm into a cluster of disorganized thunderstorms.  The fact that Dorian essentially stalled allowed the storm to strengthen as the upper air was quite favorable for ventilation and strengthening.  Look at Hurricane Ginger...

Sorry...actually I was a Mary Ann type myself...but this Hurricane Ginger...a month long storm that became nearly stationary at 2 different points in its track.  It made landfall as so many tropical systems do in NC as a Cat 1 'cane.

But Dorian was the strongest Atlantic Hurricane ever...NOT!  Yes, Dorian was a beast to be sure!  But 910 mb at its lowest pressure is good for 9th best in the Atlantic basin all time.  Hurricane Ivan which was nasty for many humans equaled that low pressure...and speak of an erratic path!  Dorian is like the Bryce Harper of hurricanes; generates a lot of talk, and deservedly so, but is only 9th best!  Bellinger, Acuna, Alfonso, Rendon, Soto, Freeman...you get the picture.  Sorry I digress; darn ADD!

Please do not take this for me down playing Dorian.  This powerful hurricane single handedly beefed up the North Atlantic ACE Index (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) in one fell swoop.  Yes, there were some other insignificant storms during this time period, but study the graph and the near vertical slope of the 2019 line (blue) compared to normal climatology is due to Dorian and little else.  Frankly, the 3 prior storms this year were hardly worth a name IMHO...

And for those of us...ME INCLUDED...with short memories, here was Hurricane Matthew's track just 3 years prior...that storm skirted the coast of FL as a 4 and a 3 and had many in dire consternation of the end game.  Check it out...

So what are you sayin' Smitty?  Well, hurricanes, both strong and weak are nothing new.  We have simply unbelievable technology that is both a boom and a bane for us humans when it comes to not only meteorology, but all aspects of our lives.  Satellite technology is just so incredible now; I remember taking a Remote Sensing course at PSU in 1981 not even knowing what Remote Sensing was and became so enthralled with what primitive satellite imagery could do.  I was like a kid in a candy shop!  Now on virtually every social media and TV outlet, we all see these incredible images of the eye of these meteorological masterpieces!  Galveston 1900 would not even be a "disaster" if it were that humanity had even 10% of this type of technology at best!  For those of you wanting to learn more about the Galveston Hurricane, here is a brief analysis; (get by the fact that it is Fox News!)

OK...I said brief.  And with that, a brief ditty to sign off.  Since I'm in a rock and roll kinda mood, here you go.  Enjoy! (A winter type storm vs a summer type storm; I get it...I know...but I like the tune!)  And enjoy the fall-like weather that will accompany the passage of Dorian as he passes our latitude and becomes absorbed into the westerlies completing his job of trying to equalize the heat and humidity of the tropics with the cool and dryness of the polar latitudes' air masses.  There are other tropical systems currently doing their dirty work, but none to truly threaten the US for the next couple of weeks.  Here you go...

I'm out...

Smitty

AA:  How about that 11-10 Nats comeback last night?  Wow!  Not sure the BoSox have that in them this year.  i know the Os don't!  I would not want to play the Nats in the post season.  A dry spell looks to be in order over the next 10 days; might be a respite in the small engine hum over the next week or two?  

Devilish Dorian

It's been quite some time since I pounded these keys on Blogger, so it took a major hurricane threat and some prompting from some loyal readers for me to come out of my blogger slumber.  It's not like I have that much going on in my life that I couldn't type a few paragraphs about the weather...but the birth of my son's daughter is a pretty darn good excuse I do believe (Penelope Rita)...I call her "Pen-ah-lope"until her personality dictates otherwise...plus there is now a Planet Fitness 2 miles from my place and my dogs have finally settled to a point where they can walk to some meaningful extent on a leash.  Oh yeah...and I'm driving some nice vehicles around the Mid-Atlantic region for kicks and giggles...so I'm keeping busy!  With all of that said, some quick thoughts on this potentially damaging storm for the eastern seaboard of not just Florida, but all of the way north to the Outer Banks of NC.  Please let me share the modeling from the past 24 hours...and I'm sure more changes are on the way...

First the Euro tracks from yesterday...just 12 hours ago...

And now today...

Check out where the centers of low pressure are modeled to be more out to sea as opposed to inland...

And also note how the bulk of the ensemble members keep the storm off the coast!  And I love this graphic showing where the damaging winds will be most likely occurring...this graphic is from now through next Thursday; here's hoping it is accurate as this will keep damage to a minimum along the coastal sections of all of the US...

I'll not bother with the rainfall graphic; suffice to say, the coastal regions will see 2-5" of rain with this track if it were to verify.  Frankly, that's not too different from a typical sea breeze thunderstorm set-up!  But here is the current OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK from the National Hurricane Center...

FWIW...the National Hurricane Center continue to move their forecast track off towards the east for the last few updates...GOOD NEWS!  And gut call as of right now as the ridge to the NE is weakening more than modeled, Andrew will continue to be the only monster of the last several decades!  This is a good graphic of the MAJOR landfalls in FL since 1851...Andrew (1992 near Miami), Labor Day 1935 in the Keys, and last year's Michael up on the panhandle...Gut feeling; no dots will be added to this graphic thanks to Dorian!  Here's hoping any how...

OK...enough for now.  I thank y'all for reading.  You can get great wx info anywhere; for those who have asked, I am humbled to be sure!  And those of you reading this at from a CDSD link, I miss y'all!  Doctor Dolittle (aka B-) was correct last year as I was running around the halls prior to homeroom talking to as many as possible; he kept calling it my farewell tour!  It was all good; Gabe had my HR off to a great start!  Funny stuff!  As for the weather, Helpless.  We have no control.  So I will leave you with this Neil Young classic...and as always, thanks for reading!  And to my CDSD folks, keep fighting the good fight!

Smitty

AA:  Happy Labor Day weekend; especially for you!  I've known a few over the years, but not to the extent of as hard of a worker as you and with the family support you have!  You and your family (and so many other hard working people) are why we celebrate Labor Day!  Relax on Monday, have a beer, and watch the BoSox elimination number approach "0" like the Os have been for a couple of weeks now!

Hideous Heatwave

Just a very quick post to my loyal readers that this is indeed a hideous wave of heat, not just for us, but the entire northeast quadrant of the USA.  Please be careful when you hear of record heat in major cities as I've seen many pundits and talking heads quoting the heat index (real feel temps) vs the actual thermometer reading.  Clearly, the heat indices are 100°F+ in many locations across the northeast; however, the actual temps are having trouble rivaling the triple digit temps that are records in many places for this time of year.  Frankly, it is due to the extreme humidity and the wet ground from all of the recent rains...

First the heat advisories and warning in effect as of this writing...

And the current observations as of 4 pm eastern...

Note how the rain from the cluster of T-storms both in the Carolinas and the WI-MI region cool the air...and tomorrow, the 500 mb ridge is still holding strong in the northeast quadrant...the yellow colors show above normal temps in the upper atmosphere still tomorrow...

...but by Tuesday, check this out!  Relief, O Canadian style!  The blue colors are below normal temps aloft, and the deeper blues are much below normal!  And much below normal for July will feel just fine!

OK...with me saying blues so much, maybe a blues tune.  Well, not so much!  My lovely bride loves Linda Ronstadt and here's a song that's quite apropos...enjoy!

Relief is on the way...

Smitty

AA:  Hot yet Sunday; transition day with numerous storms Monday, temps dropping below norms for middle of next week and becoming normal by week's end.  50 years ago tonight, we landed 2 humans on the moon!  Show your kids the moon tonight (though it rises late at 11 pm) and mention to them that only 12 humans have ever walked on the moon (and 4 are still living today!) 

The Fat Old Sun

I absolutely abhor how science has fallen prey to being politicized as much as it has in recent times, especially the topic of climate science.  Most of you reading this have heard of the phrase "starving artists".  Well, in reality, there are also many starving scientists and the numbers would be far greater if it were not for government funding.  I guess this could be argued for many various government funded programs; however, my point is the funding by government to research a topic with a predetermined agenda will create a bias towards the outcome.  And I truly believe that is the current case with climate science.  All we hear about is the earth is getting warmer and warmer!  Indeed, the data below shows that to be the case as per the UAH (University of Alabama Huntsville) satellite data of the lowest 5 miles of earth's atmosphere.  And much of the global warmth anomaly is enhanced by warmer polar regions of the globe.

However, I am a firm believer that what drives the climate system of the earth and essentially all of the external processes of the earth (and possibly some of the internal processes as well) is 'ol sol!  That big ball of ionized plasma gives earth plenty of heat and light, albeit not evenly distributed, that drives the physical processes of the day to day weather changes and the ultimate long term climate of the planet.  There have been ups and downs with the climate over the millenia; ice ages to interglacial warmth.  The question begs why?  The answer with the agenda attached is CO2 and the fact that we humans are creating an atmospheric increase of this trace gas that is creating a catastrophic change in the earth's atmosphere's temperature.  Indeed, CO2 has increased over the last 100 years...

The zig-zag red line fluctuates annually due to increased photosynthesis during the warmer season; greater growth and therefore depletion of atmospheric CO2 by thriving plants.   But my point is let's look at another factor of weather and ultimately climate...the sun!  Most of you are aware of the 11 year sunspot cycle from maximum number of observed sunspots to very few or none in an 11 year cycle.  This has been observed and measured for nearly 300 years; Galileo is credited with first seeing these imperfections on the sun and used them to note the sun's rotation.  Here is the graph of these cycles and a pic of the sun with many spots and none.

The Space Weather Prediction Center has just released its prediction for our upcoming solar cycle 25 and their thoughts are it will be well below "normal".  That's a good thing for space exploration, satellites, space station visits, etc...due to a lesser threat of major flares and energetic coronal mass ejections.  Here's their latest graphic of confirmed sunspot activity through last year.

But what about earth's weather and climate?  Note the graph above the sun pics and in particular the Maunder Minimum and the Dalton Minimum.  These were periods with fewer than normal sunspots and the corresponding weather that followed was rather brutal.  Extensive cold outbreaks and freezing temps in the mid-latitudes all year long created famine and hardship.  The Little Ice Age (1650-1700) and the The Year Without A Summer (1816) are often tied to the fact that 'ol sol was not very active!  So why aren't we hearing about a weakening solar cycle about to occur?  And possibly a subsequent drop in global temperatures as the oceans cool over the longer term.  Study carefully the graph below.  I stumbled upon this excellent depiction of our current solar cycle minimums compared to the Dalton Minimum. 

According to the graph, the colder times came nearer the end of the Dalton Minimum.  Will our climate begin to shift again over the next decade or two?  Will my son's newborn daughter live during a period of time when shouts of an impending ice age is the norm?  Will there be classic novels written with anomalous cold in a region where snow and ice are rare, similar to Dickens' "A Christmas Carol"?  This is what fascinates me about the complexities of the natural world.  There are so many variables that to blame just ONE is in my humble opinion just plain nuts!  

OK...I'm done.  I just wanted to make sure y'all know where I stand on climate science.  It's complicated to be sure, but not this tune!  Enjoy...

Smitty

AA:  I'm not happy how politics drives science research.  I believe the sun is the ultimate earth system driver.  As for the weather, typically summer over the next week with above normal temps and below normal precip.  A time to dry and a time to fry!

Hey...What is that bright object?

As many of you who read this know my wife and I are early risers.  Very early risers to many.  Recently, upon our early morning awakening, my wife asked in confirmation, "Is that bright object Jupiter?"  Well "yes it is" was my reply!  I went on to explain that in a few weeks, Jupiter would be in opposition to Earth and thus causing it to get so bright in the sky.  It was a quick explanation and I think I'll give a quick blog post explanation to y'all. 

First...just what is opposition?  It is when an object (planet) is opposite of the sun in our sky.  When that occurs, the superior planet (a planet whose orbit is outside of earth's orbit around the sun) is closest to the earth and therefore appearing very bright as the reflected light travels a shorter distance to us earthlings.  In addition, opposition places the planet at its highest point in the sky at midnight...opposite of the sun.  So with the darkest skies and the reflected light traveling through the least amount of earth's atmosphere, the planet will be quite bright!

So tonight, June 10, Jupiter will be in opposition of the earth.  For the next several nights, if you are up and it is clear, take a gander at the king of the planets.  If you are so inspired, you might even see a moon or two of Jupiter with a good pair of binoculars or simple telescope.  Opposition is the best time to do this; however, an opposition near the summer solstice is not the best opposition.  You see, the night time ecliptic is low in the sky during our summer.  In the day, the sun is obviously climbing higher and higher in the sky until the summer solstice on June 21 at 11:54 am.  On that day, we here in Harrisburg will have the "noon" time sun at about 73.5° high in the sky.  Conversely, at midnight, the highest Jupiter could be is about 26.5° assuming it is directly on the ecliptic path.  But if the opposition occurred in the winter, Jupiter, or any superior planet would be much higher in the sky!  The same is true about the full moon.  Tonight, "midnight" occurs just a tad after 1:00 am when the sun is farthest below the horizon.  Here's a graphic showing how short dark night really is near our summer solstice!

So where should I look?  South...and you won't miss both Jupiter and Antares, the heart of the scorpion.  Funny enough, Jupiter is actually in the constellation Ophiuchus (o-Fee-uh-cuss).  This is what has become known as our 13th zodiac constellation as the moon, sun, and planets spend more time technically in the region of the constellation of the snake handler as opposed to the scorpion!  In fact, it only takes the sun 1 week to travel through Scorpius.  Ophiuchus is not very bright and in our light polluted skies, it is very difficult to locate.  However, Antares (not Mars) is easy to locate along with the 3 stars above.

Below is a map showing the ecliptic and the short amount of time the sun spends in Scorpius...you see the blue line is where the sun, moon, and planets travel in the sky.  And also note how skinny the area is of Scorpius where the blue line crosses through.  Thus, the wanderers spend more time with the snake handler than with the scorpion!

 

OK...gonna roll.  I just thought I'd mention the astronomical opposition of Jupiter to y'all and for those of you that are often awake after midnight, look south to see those two bright heavenly bodies.  Here is a tune that can accompany your viewing!  Enjoy!

Smitty

AA:  Jupiter reaches opposition June 10 this year.  It is when the planet is closest to the earth and therefore appears very bright in the sky.  The next opposition for Jupiter will be July 14, 2020 and Jupiter will actually be ~12 million miles closer than tonight!  Look south to locate the very bright planet (white) and the not quite as bright red giant star Antares to its right.  Antares is 600+ light years away while Jupiter tonight is about 35 light minutes from earth!  That's kinda funny...at least to me!

Perpetual Summer Vacation

Just a bit weather here with this blog post.  But more importantly, a genuine and sincere "thank you"  to all who have encouraged me to (especially during winter wx events) voice my opinion as to what I believed the sensible weather would be.  Or more directly; how much snow?  We goin' to be in school tomorrow?  I never thought I'd be doing a "blogger"; I thought my email was being forwarded to those who wanted to see my thoughts...why?...I'm not sure?  Then, I linked on FB.  My point is this; I never thought anyone really was that interested, but obviously a few glances were taken.  And that's how I persevered through my 35 years...a few were listening, interested, caring...etc! And likely, many of you reading this understand that sentiment, but believe me, we all had more than a few cursory impressions upon our cherubs.  And many of you reading this will be recharged next fall to carry on that mission of public schooling...and to that end I applaud and thank y'all!  Now onto a brief look into the weather...

First, the 500 mb temps as per the Euro 10 days hence...for my buddy Z...

OK...what the heck is that showing?  It's showing a surface cold front will likely be pressing south towards PA after what will be a reasonably "normal"weekend weather wise moving into the first full week of summer vacation!  I like to look at surface dew points to get a real feel for the guidance trends.  Note that next Monday, we in PA will have similar dew points (humidity) as the Floridians who love it!

But 24 hours later, here comes the refreshing air from O Canada! Note how it presses all the way to the Gulf Coast!  Impressive for June!

Thus...making the first 5 days kinda normal temperature wise in these parts!

But for late next week and next weekend, substantially cooler (and drier) air will envelop much of the lower 48 with the exception of the Pacific northwest...enjoy it!

And in terms of precip...slightly above normal for the next week's worth of rain...most falling in these parts around Monday and then again Thursday...still uncertain for those rain events however...

OK...gotta roll.  The birds are hammering the feeders and I promised my lovely bride I'll keep our feathered friends and their fledglings well nourished on her extended work morning today.  So I'll leave y'all with this ditty from Gordon Lightfoot; Kay turned me onto the lyrics of this song, and I found it somewhat germane for my present working situation...

Happy Summer y'all and many genuine thanks to all my co-educators for the many kind words and well-wishes for my days ahead!  And as always, thanks for reading!

Smitty

AA:  Normal summer wx through next Monday, then a strong and possibly a gusty frontal passage with possible severe storms Monday pm.  We could get some showers Sunday, but much more likely Monday pm and again Thursday-ish!  Don't work too hard this summer; enjoy those youngins!

Upper Low Brings Wx Woe

Just a very brief discussion this morning concerning the 500 mb level in the troposphere...up about 18,000' or so.  You see, the altitude varies due to a number of reasons, temperature being a major factor.  When the 500 mb heights are low, the air is colder and more dense dropping the 500 mb constant pressure level closer to the surface of the earth.  The converse of this statement is also true.  With that said, when the upper air is colder than normal, often clouds and precipitation result at the surface of the earth.  Well, this Easter weekend 2019 sees one heckuva trough (low heights) digging into the old, deep south and lifting and dying right over PA through Monday.  The jet stream which can often move these pools of cool aloft is well displaced to our north...I'll let the maps do the remainder of the discussion.  I will display the 500 mb level every 12 hours beginning Good Friday morning...

Good Friday evening...this is when we will likely see our heaviest precip into early Saturday morning as a strong surface low and cold front slowly push across the state...

 

Saturday sunrise...

 Saturday evening...

 Easter sunrise...note the jet running parallel to the USA-O Canada border with the isobars closely packed together...winter cold across northern O Canada; spring warmth across the US except under the dying trough...

 Easter evening...

Easter Monday am...again the jet is zonal running west to east just north of US 2; really looking forward to driving that glorious route across the north country (Maine to Washington) in the not so distant future!

As for the rain Friday night into Saturday morning in these KMDT parts, well, the global models are consistent with ~1.0-1.5" of rain whereas the short-range regional models are indicating much less than that in the Harrisburg area with the heaviest rains falling both to our NW and to our east...here; take a look...

Either way...Happy Easter y'all.  I'll leave you with this very timely & poignant negro spiritual number performed nicely by Willie...

I'm out...

Smitty

AA:  The goods (rains) being delivered for grass growing season! (see crop soil moisture map below...) A bit more sun next week and it will be off to the races for you and others trying to keep pace with the lawn farmers!  Ample soil moisture, mild days and cool nights make for a tired Timmy and an irritable one when those BoSox keep losing!