Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
As many of you who read this know my wife and I are early risers. Very early risers to many. Recently, upon our early morning awakening, my wife asked in confirmation, "Is that bright object Jupiter?" Well "yes it is" was my reply! I went on to explain that in a few weeks, Jupiter would be in opposition to Earth and thus causing it to get so bright in the sky. It was a quick explanation and I think I'll give a quick blog post explanation to y'all.
First...just what is opposition? It is when an object (planet) is opposite of the sun in our sky. When that occurs, the superior planet (a planet whose orbit is outside of earth's orbit around the sun) is closest to the earth and therefore appearing very bright as the reflected light travels a shorter distance to us earthlings. In addition, opposition places the planet at its highest point in the sky at midnight...opposite of the sun. So with the darkest skies and the reflected light traveling through the least amount of earth's atmosphere, the planet will be quite bright!
So tonight, June 10, Jupiter will be in opposition of the earth. For the next several nights, if you are up and it is clear, take a gander at the king of the planets. If you are so inspired, you might even see a moon or two of Jupiter with a good pair of binoculars or simple telescope. Opposition is the best time to do this; however, an opposition near the summer solstice is not the best opposition. You see, the night time ecliptic is low in the sky during our summer. In the day, the sun is obviously climbing higher and higher in the sky until the summer solstice on June 21 at 11:54 am. On that day, we here in Harrisburg will have the "noon" time sun at about 73.5° high in the sky. Conversely, at midnight, the highest Jupiter could be is about 26.5° assuming it is directly on the ecliptic path. But if the opposition occurred in the winter, Jupiter, or any superior planet would be much higher in the sky! The same is true about the full moon. Tonight, "midnight" occurs just a tad after 1:00 am when the sun is farthest below the horizon. Here's a graphic showing how short dark night really is near our summer solstice!
So where should I look? South...and you won't miss both Jupiter and Antares, the heart of the scorpion. Funny enough, Jupiter is actually in the constellation Ophiuchus (o-Fee-uh-cuss). This is what has become known as our 13th zodiac constellation as the moon, sun, and planets spend more time technically in the region of the constellation of the snake handler as opposed to the scorpion! In fact, it only takes the sun 1 week to travel through Scorpius. Ophiuchus is not very bright and in our light polluted skies, it is very difficult to locate. However, Antares (not Mars) is easy to locate along with the 3 stars above.
Below is a map showing the ecliptic and the short amount of time the sun spends in Scorpius...you see the blue line is where the sun, moon, and planets travel in the sky. And also note how skinny the area is of Scorpius where the blue line crosses through. Thus, the wanderers spend more time with the snake handler than with the scorpion!
OK...gonna roll. I just thought I'd mention the astronomical opposition of Jupiter to y'all and for those of you that are often awake after midnight, look south to see those two bright heavenly bodies. Here is a tune that can accompany your viewing! Enjoy!
Smitty
AA: Jupiter reaches opposition June 10 this year. It is when the planet is closest to the earth and therefore appears very bright in the sky. The next opposition for Jupiter will be July 14, 2020 and Jupiter will actually be ~12 million miles closer than tonight! Look south to locate the very bright planet (white) and the not quite as bright red giant star Antares to its right. Antares is 600+ light years away while Jupiter tonight is about 35 light minutes from earth! That's kinda funny...at least to me!
Just a bit weather here with this blog post. But more importantly, a genuine and sincere "thank you" to all who have encouraged me to (especially during winter wx events) voice my opinion as to what I believed the sensible weather would be. Or more directly; how much snow? We goin' to be in school tomorrow? I never thought I'd be doing a "blogger"; I thought my email was being forwarded to those who wanted to see my thoughts...why?...I'm not sure? Then, I linked on FB. My point is this; I never thought anyone really was that interested, but obviously a few glances were taken. And that's how I persevered through my 35 years...a few were listening, interested, caring...etc! And likely, many of you reading this understand that sentiment, but believe me, we all had more than a few cursory impressions upon our cherubs. And many of you reading this will be recharged next fall to carry on that mission of public schooling...and to that end I applaud and thank y'all! Now onto a brief look into the weather...
First, the 500 mb temps as per the Euro 10 days hence...for my buddy Z...
OK...what the heck is that showing? It's showing a surface cold front will likely be pressing south towards PA after what will be a reasonably "normal"weekend weather wise moving into the first full week of summer vacation! I like to look at surface dew points to get a real feel for the guidance trends. Note that next Monday, we in PA will have similar dew points (humidity) as the Floridians who love it!
But 24 hours later, here comes the refreshing air from O Canada! Note how it presses all the way to the Gulf Coast! Impressive for June!
Thus...making the first 5 days kinda normal temperature wise in these parts!
But for late next week and next weekend, substantially cooler (and drier) air will envelop much of the lower 48 with the exception of the Pacific northwest...enjoy it!
And in terms of precip...slightly above normal for the next week's worth of rain...most falling in these parts around Monday and then again Thursday...still uncertain for those rain events however...
OK...gotta roll. The birds are hammering the feeders and I promised my lovely bride I'll keep our feathered friends and their fledglings well nourished on her extended work morning today. So I'll leave y'all with this ditty from Gordon Lightfoot; Kay turned me onto the lyrics of this song, and I found it somewhat germane for my present working situation...
Happy Summer y'all and many genuine thanks to all my co-educators for the many kind words and well-wishes for my days ahead! And as always, thanks for reading!
Smitty
AA: Normal summer wx through next Monday, then a strong and possibly a gusty frontal passage with possible severe storms Monday pm. We could get some showers Sunday, but much more likely Monday pm and again Thursday-ish! Don't work too hard this summer; enjoy those youngins!
Just a very brief discussion this morning concerning the 500 mb level in the troposphere...up about 18,000' or so. You see, the altitude varies due to a number of reasons, temperature being a major factor. When the 500 mb heights are low, the air is colder and more dense dropping the 500 mb constant pressure level closer to the surface of the earth. The converse of this statement is also true. With that said, when the upper air is colder than normal, often clouds and precipitation result at the surface of the earth. Well, this Easter weekend 2019 sees one heckuva trough (low heights) digging into the old, deep south and lifting and dying right over PA through Monday. The jet stream which can often move these pools of cool aloft is well displaced to our north...I'll let the maps do the remainder of the discussion. I will display the 500 mb level every 12 hours beginning Good Friday morning...
Good Friday evening...this is when we will likely see our heaviest precip into early Saturday morning as a strong surface low and cold front slowly push across the state...
Saturday sunrise...
Saturday evening...
Easter sunrise...note the jet running parallel to the USA-O Canada border with the isobars closely packed together...winter cold across northern O Canada; spring warmth across the US except under the dying trough...
Easter evening...
Easter Monday am...again the jet is zonal running west to east just north of US 2; really looking forward to driving that glorious route across the north country (Maine to Washington) in the not so distant future!
As for the rain Friday night into Saturday morning in these KMDT parts, well, the global models are consistent with ~1.0-1.5" of rain whereas the short-range regional models are indicating much less than that in the Harrisburg area with the heaviest rains falling both to our NW and to our east...here; take a look...
Either way...Happy Easter y'all. I'll leave you with this very timely & poignant negro spiritual number performed nicely by Willie...
I'm out...
Smitty
AA: The goods (rains) being delivered for grass growing season! (see crop soil moisture map below...) A bit more sun next week and it will be off to the races for you and others trying to keep pace with the lawn farmers! Ample soil moisture, mild days and cool nights make for a tired Timmy and an irritable one when those BoSox keep losing!
In my book, it is now officially spring! And for many reasons; some theoretical and others empirical. The most obvious experience was the slow moving cold front that managed to pop a thundershower in our region Friday afternoon! With temps in the mid 70s and a strong southwesterly jet about 1 mile up, enough lift was generated in the relatively dry air to manage a nice little spring surprise. Couple that with the bomb cyclone producing record low pressures over Kansas earlier this week and the spring blizzard across the northern plains, it's clearly evident we are in a transitional season. Frankly, now that sunset is approaching 7:30 pm local time, how can anyone deny spring has sprung? Many have asked if we are done with winter and snow...and I believe we have a reminder skiff coming, (after all, it is still March)...but winter's spine has been broken for 2018-19. Please allow me to expound...
First piece of evidence, our little "surprise" thundershower. It was enough to upset our 11 year old girl who within the year has become the best barometer in the house. Zola, our border collie mutt, has recently realized she has the innate ability to detect rapid atmospheric changes and tends to become highly agitated. Friday evening was a prime example as a few small convective cells popped in our neighborhood. Here is a still shot of the radar...note the snow back over Lake Michigan...a sign of the cold advection on NW flow for the weekend.
In addition, all time record low pressures were set (preliminary data only; not yet confirmed) in both Colorado and Kansas. The lowest pressure officially recorded to date was 968 mb in SW Kansas...this is nearly as strong as a Category 2 hurricane...3 mb shy! The satellite presentation was spectacular...the real spin occurs at the end of the loop. Look at the "atmospheric river" coming off the Pacific Ocean feeding the water vapor into this monster. Simply awesome meteorology!
Here is a 1 minute video link of various views, notably more visible imagery!
Of course, we were on the warm side of this magnificent atmospheric mammoth! That brought our warmth for both Thursday and Friday...below was Friday afternoon and its glorious warmth!
But lurking to the north and west is winter. I shared the graphic below with a colleague earlier this week and the response was "that's crazy!". It's been a cold winter in the Great Lakes and northern plains and with the deep snowpack along with the extensive ice over the lakes, any NW flow at low levels will try to inhibit warming in the Ohio Valley and points east. At least we have the Appalachians to help orographically downslope the air and bring at least a few degrees of warming south and east of the mountains. From the looks of the ice compared to the "norms", I believe we need a New Green Deal! Lots of ice on the Great Lakes when compared to the 30 year average...
And speaking of averages, this upcoming 3rd week of March will be below the 30 year average. Here's a graphic for the PA averages from my favorite meteorological television offering...
...and it appears we will likely fall short of those temps most of the upcoming week. Take a look...that's a 5 day anomaly of ~10ºF below norms for this weekend into later next week as per the Euro; my go to model as its skill score continues to out dual the GFS!
However, the following week appears to warm into spring and the longer range modeling suggests a warm April might just be in the cards, but that is a different story for a different day! Here's the Euro's take for next weekend into the last week of March 2019. By the way, that is NOT a severe weather signature for the south...good news for them!
And for what it is worth, here is that potential "skiff" I alluded to earlier. Some just might call it the "onion snow". For me, simply a reminder that the upper atmosphere is still quite cold, but that the March sun is getting stronger and stronger to warm the lower levels as observed yesterday!
So come 5:58 pm EDT on Wednesday, the sun will be our side of the equator and continue to head north until 11:54 am EDT June 21, 2019. I bet being at the location shown below would be a wild time...don't cha think?
If it's still standing?
Sorry...I digress! OK...I've rambled long enough. The song Smitty; get to the song! Well, I mentioned thunder earlier and one of my favs that mentions thunder is from who my wife affectionately refers to me as "my girl". I hope you enjoy this Fleetwood Mac classic as much as I...
Happy Week's end (and Saint Patrick's Day for those of you so inclined)!
Smitty
AA: Nature of convection; rain south and sun north of your location! We had a faint rainbow upon shower's passing. Back to normal and below this upcoming week and mainly DRY! Time for the yardmaster to get his mowing equipment ready for the soon to be upon us mowing season! MLB season, along with spring starts this Wednesday!
Just a very quick post this evening to update this 1st part of March. Good news/bad news...Good news is once past the Ides of March, things should definitely improve in terms of the weather, albeit still a tad on the coolish side...no record warmth that I'm seeing. Bad news...we've got to endure winter's final fury until things tend to settle down a bit...
First off...another quick hit of snow during the overnight into early morning that will make the Friday morning commute somewhat of an adventure I do believe...the Euro has been most consistent and the GFS just got bullish as well on the snow in the KMDT region...the graphic below is about as textbook of a turnpike snow that I've ever seen!
And temps will be stubborn to rise tomorrow, but the higher March sun angle will help in spite of the cloud cover...Saturday will also have some light precip, frozen style, but the bigger ticket is Sunday night into Monday. Here is where the models have wavered back/forth, but the axis of heaviest snows looks to go directly through our region once again. The trend for the Euro, seen below, has been to slowly shift the axis south...while the GFS is moving it north. This has the POTENTIAL to be our biggest snowfall of the winter season. Still much uncertainty, but the global models have begun to hone into a PA special...the graphic below does not include tonight's 2-3" skiff...
I will just mention...but no graphics...another coastal is modeled for next weekend! But I will show this; the temp anomalies for next week at 850 mb (one mile up for better representation of air mass movement)...Brrrrr! Barney purple cold! Bright side? The means are slowly rising...and the days (daylight) are getting longer!
OK...enough...I said quick update. Just get to the tune...In spite of the Harper signing today, I'm ready for spring and the crack of the bat. Maybe one these March blogs will someday come from sunny Sarasota or Clearwater...or BOTH! Enjoy...
I'm out...
Smitty
AA: Cold and stormy for the 1st 2 weeks of March; then a break I do believe. I'm not a fan of the Harper signing by Philadelphia.
PS: Check your home barometers if you have one next week...just wonder how that 1050+ mb holds together as it advects SE towards the CONUS and PA. That's the true "Arctic Slide"...
Climatologically, February tends to be KMDT's snowiest month with many numerous 3"+ type storms. The true blockbusters tend to come until mid-March and it is of my belief that our end game of winter will not disappoint those wanting winter to wear onward and upward. It certainly will be a major winter event Wednesday into the evening followed by a brief and MILD respite until the energy reloads for next week. The first week of March also looks dicey as well, but that will be a different story for a different day. Let's start with Wednesday...
The graphic above is a high resolution of the various types of precip and the total amount of each. Note the minimal green (rain) around KMDT compared to the snow (blue) and freezing rain (pink). My gut feeling is that the upper air will be dynamically cooled sufficiently to keep this event more snow than ice. And the snow will start in a light fashion, but buckle up! Within and hour or so, if the numerical guidance is correct, the mid levels will support some serious precip rates of 1-2" snows per hour. With temps in the low-mid 20s, even with a Feb 20 sun angle, driving conditions will deteriorate very quickly in these parts and...well...you can see the issue! This will occur for the bulk of the day until late in the afternoon when sleet mixes briefly before transferring to light freezing rain and drizzle. This is when the ice will accumulate and potentially do so to our greatest accretion this winter. More snow; less ice accretion...and vice versa. Below I'm showing the 15:1 because I believe that at rapid rates of snowfall I'm of the belief will be occurring along with the slower onset of sleet, this is more likely to be closer to the totals...lesser accumulations result from quicker sleet and/or slower snows...
Many of you have heard me say, predict the high...predict the snow. This is high pressure! That's 1042 mb just NE of the Endless Mountains! What's that Smitty? Darn cold and dry air...a perfect set up for overrunning precip here in PA (if you like snow/ice/wintry weather).
And the mid-level juice is amped to say the least...green is very wet! That's my rationale for heavy quick accumulating snows...quite heavy rains in TN as I type moving directly towards PA...
And just for a little teaser for next week for those of you interested...a 2 day total of snow with a true MillerA nor'easter centered on next Wednesday...waaaaaay toooooo far away to predict, but interesting to share I do believe...
I thank all of you who have asked my opinion the last few days. "Impactful" was my most used descriptor, and Wednesday's major winter storm might be our most impactful yet to date. Will it be our most impactful of 2018-19? To be determined...
I'm out...enjoy the tune! For mi amigo from Lanco...just don't think it will be "softly" for much of the event!
Smitty
AA: Snow starts 1 hour either side of sunrise and from 10-3 pm becomes very heavy! 1-2"/hour ending as a brief period of sleet then light freezing rain and drizzle to glaze winter's freshly fallen blanket. Might? tickle 60°F Sunday prior to a true nor'easter next Tuesday-Wednesday...? SD Padres World Series odds cut in half with recent signing!
After a week long lull of the onslaught of winter cold and wintry precipitation, it appears to me that another extended period of winter weather will be with us through February and possibly into March. It will commence early this week with a weak clipper disturbance followed by 2 stronger systems that will run a storm up into the Great Lakes with a second weaker low pressure forming along the east coast, both attacking a big arctic high...never a good outcome for those not wanting wintry precipitation! And this active storm track looks to be in play at least through this month and I believe into March. Allow me to explain...
First, a digression. I mentioned the Great Lakes. I always like to look at how frozen they are at this time of year. As you can see, even with this past week's thaw, the total ice coverage is well above the 30 year mean (1980-2010). I have a feeling the ice coverage will be above normal until "ice-out" later this spring!
Closer to home, the weak "clipper" which is essentially a minor jet stream disturbance that will make the Monday morning commute a real "pleasure"...I'm showing you a map that indicates a saturated atmosphere up 2 miles...this is usually a good indication of precipitation occurring and though some will evaporate as it makes it to the surface, a wide area across the southern half of PA should end up with 1-2" snowfall especially with the high ratio snowflakes. It will be plenty cold for snow...
Then Monday night into Tuesday, a much stronger system will drive towards the lakes and bring a vast amount of moisture towards the northeast. The initial onslaught will be snow, but I fear a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain Tuesday with temps very hard pressed to get to freezing by day's end...the numerical guidance is also suggesting the same! By late Tuesday, the Euro has a moderate snowfall accumulation and a major ice storm accumulation across central PA.
These situations are always tricky to pinpoint, but I'm thinking snow to brief sleet, but then freezing rain as the arctic high will cold air dam the surface at or below freezing for most of the day Tuesday. Note the 1040 mb high posted across Quebec...bonjour!
Then next weekend, the parade of storms continues...
And why do I believe we are continuing this into March? It has to do with the MJO phase. Madden-Julian Oscillation is the lesser known of the major ocean oscillations. Most have heard of El Nino/La Nina...or ENSO. Essentially, the science is that the pressure and precip patterns in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans have a major influence as to how the large scale Rossby waves (jet streams) react and position themselves. So as to not bore you any further, just 2 final graphics...here is the Euro's seasonal MJO prediction over the next month. You'll have to trust me when I tell y'all that most of the other numerical guidance is indicating similar movement into phases 8-1-2...What the heck am I looking at Smitty? Start at the green line where the yellow is most concentrated (phase 6) and notice how it quickly moves through 7 into 8 and the strongly into 1. The inner circle is where there is minimal affect. As you move outward from the center, the atmospheric effects are more significant.
And below is the effect on temperature here in the USA during the JFM time frame...we were just in 6 and 7, the warm phases, but are now heading towards the colder phases of 8-1-2. We just wait and see how all of this plays out? I do find it rather intriguing to say the least!
Hey...Blame it on El Nino! Enjoy!
Happy weekend!
Smitty
AA: Another wintry week this week with likely disruption of schedules. The song is kinda funny!
