Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
It's been awhile since I last opined as the weather has been essentially very benign so far this summer season. Sure, we had an impressive heat wave and an evening of rare EF2 tornadoes rumbling through Dauphin County, but overall this summer to date has been quite uneventful...and that's a good thing. The rainfall until recently has been generous over most of our area. As is typical with the nature of convection in the summer, rainfall a bit too generous in some spots while less so in others. Take a look at precip for the last 30 days. You can clearly see the thunderstorms that pushed through the middle part of Dauphin County.
It's ironic that here in central PA those tornadoes materialized as nationwide it's been our least tornadic season in the last decade! The dark black line is the total of confirmed tornadoes across the states for this entire year. The dotted black line indicates the decadal average of 2005-2015 with the total number just over 1,000. Take a look...
But this post is to give a brief "heads-up" as to the POTENTIAL of some rather troublesome weather late next weekend into early the following week. The Euro has been fairly consistent with spinning up a coastal developing storm in that time frame. Here are the ensembles probabilities of a tropical storm late next weekend along the east coast; these probabilities from this time are relatively high.
And here is the control run for next Sunday morning...a low right over the Chesapeake...
And the total precip along the east coast over the next 10 days with most of this occurring from Friday on...
You can clearly see the track of the coastal system which may have warm core tropical characteristics...FYI...the GFS has not been as consistent with this development, but on some of the runs, it creates a similar situation synoptically. Time will tell...
OK...gotta roll, but I'll play this one for you as I have before. It just might be appropriate for next weekend? Enjoy...and enjoy the cold frontal passage Tuesday which will once again usher in much cooler and drier O Canadian air for midweek!
I'm out...
Smitty
AA: Watching for a tropical type system to possibly develop this weekend into early next week. Otherwise, numerous showers and thunderstorms around Tuesday as a cold front pushes through bringing refreshing air into our region Wednesday-Thursday...and even Friday before the muggies return!
Now that the GOES 16 has been orbiting the earth at ~22,000 miles above the earth and sending its vast amount of atmospheric data back down to us earthlings, not a day "goes" by that I don't take even a quick cursory glance at the general circulation of the atmosphere. As many of you know, I tend to study the weather in the early morning and without any sunlight to reflect off of the clouds, one needs to peruse other bands of data the eye in the sky is capable of detecting. For me, I like to check out the mid-level water vapor; a very good indicator of the flow in the mid-levels of the troposphere or about 10-20K feet up. Here what it looks overnight this glorious Tuesday early morning. (Yellow is very dry; whites, greens and even aquas are very moist).
Note the very dry air diving south across the Great Lakes from Ontario and Quebec. That dry air makes for wonderful astronomical viewing even during these very short nights. At this time of the year in our region, true darkness only amounts to about 4 hours per 24 hour "day"! And with the amount of light pollution in our region, one certainly needs to look at the summer sky only an hour or so either side of local midnight, currently ~1:07 am...
In the graphic above, I have it set for June 12 (vertical white line) for Harrisburg, PA. The horizontal red line is noon; the horizontal yellow line is midnight. Being about a week away from the summer solstice, clearly our time allocated for nighttime viewing is certainly limited. However, this morning was clear, sharp, and vivid helped by the cool, dry low dewpoint air. And lo and behold, I was actually able to make out a very faint tracing of the Milky Way looking south this early morning! It was nothing like this, but summer is the best time to view the Milky Way...and it is spectacular!
And Mars is very bright as well as over the next month, we are getting closer and closer to the Red Planet! This is called opposition; when a planet outside of earth's orbit is directly opposite of the sun...or highest in the sky at midnight. This also makes the planet closest to earth and therefore quite bright for Saturn, Jupiter, and by late July, Mars. Note over in the "4pm" region of the graphic below, 2018 Martian opposition is quite close to earth. And a Mars encounter of this type occurs ~2.1 years. So enjoy this display from our near neighbor in the cosmos.
One last thing I'll leave y'all with is the big blow up over the middle part of the country. This extremely warm and humid air creates a phenomenon known as nocturnal thunderstorms for obvious reasons. There has been a study ongoing called PECAN (Plains Elevated Convection At Night) trying to determine primary causes of these colossal atmospheric monsters. These storms drop copious amounts of rain along with dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. Strong damaging winds are also in the equation as vast quantities of rain cooled air rush down from these very high topped cumulonimbus clouds. The eye in the sky above clearly shows a classic case of this early this day over the central plains. The progged rainfall shown below over eastern Kansas and western MO as well as eastern IL from these storms...
And note the very dry air over the desert SW as well both on the satellite and on the latest observation. Also note the humidity over the Gulf of California...and for those of you astute satellite aficionados, the moisture moving north near the Baja and western Mexico from a tropical system (Bud) in the eastern Pacific that will bring rains to the deserts later this week.
OK...enough. Another cup of Joe and off to the gym to truly start my day. Not sure what to leave y'all with so I choose this; a "B" side to "one" of U2's biggest hits...One! Enjoy and and enjoy this glorious early summer Tuesday!
Smitty
AA: Interpreting a satellite image and inspired by the nighttime sky this morning! Happy mowing!
It's been over a month since I last opined and felt the need to do so again. Say it ain't so, Smitty! Why? Well, it's suddenly summer! After what was the coldest April nationwide, we have sprung upon one of the warmest merry month of Mays we have endured. Last Saturday was a glorious day in terms of heat and humidity! My wonderful wife thinks I'm sick loving those atmospheric conditions...and she knew something was up when I put the AC on in the morning! But with a strengthening Bermuda High, some Gulf troubles (Alberto), a civil twilight commencing around 4:30 am along with the fact that high school graduations are within a Stevie Nick of time, I'm realizing it's suddenly summer! First, reflecting back on the northeast's cold April...
It was certainly a cold month compared to normal. Contrast that to May...Wow!
But looming next week is a refreshing air mass from our neighbors to the north; O Canada! Check out the 5 day anomaly at 1 mile up which reflects nicely down to the surface in terms of the temps...
A nice poleward ridge in the western and central part of the US whilst a trough dips equatorward off the eastern part of North America. Here is the 500 mb map depicted for the middle of next week...
Contrast that to this Friday morning's upper air...a nice steamy flow from the Gulf of Mexico riding the Appalachians up into Quebec. That's been the weak flow for days now and thus the murky conditions we've experienced most of the week.
And that moisture is deep all along the east coast out into the western Atlantic with precipitable water at least 2" in the column! Take a look...
That is why flash flooding is a concern with these slow moving rainers...and this is what a flash flood looks like on a stream gauge just a stone's throw away from Ellicott City, MD last Sunday! The little run shown below shows that what normally has 16 gallons flowing past a point every second suddenly had nearly 32,000 gallons per second! Whoa Nellie!
OK...I've opined enough for today. June 1 is the official start of summer and with a warm May just passing by, many believe that summer started before Memorial Day. By the way, May was a full 5.0ºF above the 30 year norms! That's difficult to do especially with our 1.92" wetter than normal month to boot.
The artist of the song I'll leave y'all with is referenced above...and I hope you enjoy this ditty (which is not about a township in Cumberland County or a little hamlet in West Hempfield Township, Lanco)! Enjoy...
And enjoy your week's end!
Smitty
AA: After some warm and wet weather this weekend, the temps will certainly be returning to normal and even slightly below normal for the middle and end of next week. The mowers will be going gang busters!
As I sit here this glorious early star (and planet Mars, Saturn, Jupiter) bright crisp morn, I reflect back on my past week's interactions with the humans in my life. Many times, since the human who is interacting with me knows my love of the weather, the conversation turned to how "nasty" this recent weather has been. Both this past Tuesday and Thursday, frozen precipitation was observed in the Harrisburg area which is certainly not the 30 year climatological norm. However, we humans have very short memories! In all honesty, we had a beautiful week of weather...for what should be typical of late February. The next few graphics I will display are the month to date maximum temps for a few select years. Here is this year's month to date...unless you've been jet setting to south Florida or the SW corridor of the USA, it's been anomalously cold!
My grass farmer buddies keep telling me that they had 3 cuts in by this time last year! I'm sure they did...take a look at the same graphic for last year!
But some of you reading this weren't even walking (or crawling) this planet in 1982...
Or worst yet...1983!
Both of those above referenced years I was a young undergrad walking the streets and paths of University Park, PA in complete anticipation of spring warmth and the subsequent removal of the human winter-time wardrobe...if you catch my drift! When April rolled around, there was only a precious few weeks of human watching on the lawn of Old Main...or the "Beach" as it was affectionately called way up in East Halls! Yes...I am reminiscing...
So Smitty, what's your point? Other than the fact that I'm quickly getting old, my 55 years of life on "Spaceship Earth" is but a blip on the radar with my interactions with the Earth System! And our weather memories are equally limited. I wonder how the PSU area would've appeared during April 1816; The Year Without A Summer thanks in part to the volcanic eruption of Tambora coupled with sunspot minimum! The humans walking about likely bundled up tighter than Fort Knox. By the way, here is a pic of our sun as I'm typing this on this very cool early morn. We just broke a stretch of 67 "sunspot free" days with that "monster" spot below. Coincidence? I think not...
And those of you who know me well are familiar with my position of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) or human induced climate change. Simply put, yes...7 billion humans on planet earth have a major impact...NO DOUBT! But to single handedly blame humans for warming earth's climate is insane. The planet's climate system is so complex that even my buddy's flux capacitor can't even begin to scratch the surface of solving the intricacies of the climate puzzle. Why politics has entered this realm of science is atrocious! It has created a great disservice to better understanding "Spaceship Earth" in my humble opinion. Whether the graphic below for the next 45 days verifies or not, who is to say that the temps are outrageously anomalous when comparing the weather to these parts over the millennia? Will 2018 go down as the year without a spring? Rest assured, summer heat is around the corner; but that corner might be a few blocks away..just sayin'
OK...enough Smitty! I've opined enough. Keep the loyal readers loyal! I will leave y'all with my musical selection chosen by my Guidance Commons Com-padres...enjoy this throwback (not too different from your faithful weather blogger)! I love the strings in this ditty!
Enjoy this bright, precip free glorious weekend!
Smitty
AA: A beautiful weekend to hone those mowing and softball skills! Will the BoSox lose another game this month? Tough to go to the west coast and do what they're doing!
As many of you know, I do love the MLB and often am rather opinionated about the early start of the season in the north country. Personally, I'm a bit tired of watching games and replays with rain, snow, hoodies, masks, scarves, etc as the clothing of need for these guys that are playing a game meant for sunny and 80°F! And as I punch this out this glorious evening here in south central PA (80°F in my house this evening...hasn't seen that since last September!), I noticed 3 MLB games were washed away by cold/snow/rain/bad weather...And rightly so...one heckuva cyclone! Take a look...
Let's put it this way; when my jet-setting buddy who is hanging out in the Big Easy asks about how nasty the weather is going to be...trust me...it's on many peoples' minds! That's a vigorous squall line pushing through the SE USA and heavy snows across the north country...That's why these mid-latitude monsters develop; to bring warmth north (finally) and colder air south! Look at this for a temperature gradient! I'm basking in summertime warmth whilst a short jaunt north...its sub-freezing!
Here's the progged temps for tomorrow at the supposedly the warmest time of day...that is one strong backdoor cold front and one I've got to see to believe...but I've seen it before; not just to this extent! I mentioned this to my Econ Educator earlier in the week when the upper air suggested this could occur. The meteorology is absolutely amazing!
And this air-mass changer will be bringing a solid amount of rains to these parts...accumulated precip by Monday pm...the totals have been falling for what it is worth the last several model runs...
Hey...good luck to my buddy who will be sloshing through Bean-Town Monday...get that 3:15 goal my friend! Here is the the synoptic set-up for race time Patriot Day 2018! Bring it on Home! I'm thinking the BoSox-Os might be a wash that day...?
And for those of you who look for my medium/longer term wx...spring will continue to be an island of warmth in a sea of cold...sorry to say! Here is the Euro's take through Memorial Day...not very spring-like at best...
Ok..time to go. Looking forward to my Sunday Funday with fitness, friends, family, and faith. I know and God knows I've got to work on that faith thing since that came last with my alliteration...didn't mean it to do so...just did? And no Barney...I still LOVE the weather and everything that goes with it! I just gotta see this 40°F drop in temps...WITHIN 24 hrs! C'mon! Seriously, spring weather is nuts; look at this Christmas Tree...! The only reason Maine doesn't have any warning colors is that the winter weather that occurs there other than during the month of July is typical! Hearty folks to be sure...
I did have several references to songs...but this is the one I chose. Backdoor Man. Haven't listened to this group for quite some time...I hope you enjoy as much as the artists surely did! And this will be quite the BACKDOOR Front!
Smitty
AA: Plenty of rain to spur on cool weather grass growth; sharpen the blades; you'll be going full bore into August if my crystal ball is working! Loved the pic of you and daughter at softball!
It's truly amazing how a 64ºF max at KMDT can give everyone "spring fever" on March 29 living here in what I affectionately call the "sub-tropics of south central PA", but that is exactly how many people felt as the low clouds, drizzle and fog reluctantly gave way to veiled sun by late afternoon on Thursday. Maybe it was due to the fact that MLB decided to open its 2018 season with a full slate of games less those postponed due to mother nature not cooperating. (Side note...first time MLB scheduled all teams to open and play since 1968 and only in the world of baseball stats...the first time in a season opener that a Boston Red Sox player hit an inside the park home run since 1968 when Carl Yastrzemski did the same! Unreal! But with that said, south central PA will be likely experiencing New England type weather for much of April as opposed to our "sub-tropical" norms. Don't believe me about the sub-tropical comments...take a look! Same climatic region as "Hot-Lanta!" I know...semantics!
Anyway...some quick graphics for my loyal readers. First the temperatures the first week of April. This map is the Euro depiction of the 850 mb temps which are a good indication of the tendency of air masses in the atmosphere as at 1 mile up, most surface interactions are offset. Yes, that is the springtime equivalent of the dreaded POLAR VORTEX!
Now by week 2, the Barney purple moderates but clearly sinks into the CONUS...
And with the relentless press of the arctic origin air mass comes the threat of accumulating snows...week one...
And by what is essentially tax(ing) day...my buddy in VT may be skiing on May Day if this all keeps going!
The change of air masses will begin a few hours after many of you read this as the air from O Canada begins to push south and east in wave-like fashion. Note the deep SW flow currently, but also look west and north (Montanaish) to see the next air mass heading eastbound. Currently, normal temperatures are quickly rising with maxes in upper 50s and overnight lows in upper 30s for these parts. I'm thinking maybe 50 and 30 for the upcoming week but obviously cooler/colder when the threat of precip is around...and yes...that could be accumulating snow to some minor extent!
OK...I've bummed you out enough. Listen, spring will be delayed but no way denied! May is just around the corner! At least that is what the US generated climate model is suggesting! April is below normal...
The ditty I leave y'all with is from Billy Joel's COLD SPRING Harbor album, but with a different twist as Don Henley was honoring Billy Joel in this rendition below. I hope you enjoy as I did...
Happy Easter!
Smitty
AA: This coolish spring is slowing all things green! Don't be too quick to become a grass farmer! Snow will whiten the ground again in these parts...once, maybe twice by mid-April! Being that it's Easter, I have to share this classic...again!
Not to be confused with Nor'easter! The inhabitants of the northeast quadrant of the US are likely growing weary of that term due to the atmospheric events of this month to date. From damaging gales early on to crippling snows most recently, March still has plenty of winter woes in store for those anxiously awaiting true springtime weather. The birds who feast from our feeders are a good barometer (and thermometer) of the cold as our black oil sunflower supply has quickly dwindled while the feeders are being decimated by those energy hungry winter weary feathered friends. There will be brief respites from the relentless cold; but the overall messaging from the modeling is cold and colder relative to normals as far as the equations can see. Please let me explain...
I'd like to start with the Great Lakes...2 graphics. First, the amount of ice on all of the lakes compared to normal for the entire winter...obviously much more than the last 2 years, but clearly far less than the record setting 2014 ice free date. (First week of June, Lake Superior!)
Next, the ice for just this year. Note the 2 peaks with the surges of bitter cold in late December and then again in early February. I believe we will add to those twin peaks by adding a 3rd max here at the end of March as the normal ice amounts quickly diminish at this time of year; but not this year!
Now I know many of you reading this are very curious as to the potential wintry weather for this upcoming week. Rest assured, it will be wintry! Let's put it this way; enjoy Sunday's rather benign weather as we may achieve 50ºF under mostly sunny skies! After that, the next 5 look cold and potentially stormy. When in a "blocking" pattern, the day to day changes are not so great in terms of temperature; the forecasting of storms is much more tricky. Here is what a blocking pattern looks like from 23,000 miles away...note the water vapor moving northwestward from the central plains up towards Edmonton O Canada! Also note the Arctic slide towards PA and the northeast US!
And I know many of you want a snow forecast. But until this energy over the west coast comes ashore, it will be difficult to determine the paths of lowest pressures. One thing to note, the southern jet stream is loaded with moisture as seen above. Note the flow from west of the Baja across the southern US, a real concern with cold arctic air in place! I circled using purple the vorticity (spin energy) that needs to be monitored for mid-week madness. That bowling ball off of Cali and that strong jet further south will interact; just how so is the big question! Again, note the NW flow over PA!
My fear is what just occurred in New England could just occur somewhere here in the Mid-Atlantic later this week...these snow totals were quite impressive!
Note the New England snow depth as of St. Patty's Day! Wow! There is mucho water in that glacier making for what should be an epic "mud & flood season" in the north country!
Quick snapshots of upcoming cold...5 day average of cold this upcoming work week...
Then, next weekend through the remainder of the month! Again, a 5 day mean! Brrr...
A one day snapshot of the day before Easter...col'easter! Not very nice for opening days for MLB in the eastern half of the country!
How about through April? Ouch...
OK...enough already...I know! By the way, how 'bout them Chesapeake Bay Retrievers! Enjoy this lesson ditty as you sing and dance and look for leprechauns this weekend! Enjoy!
Smitty
AA: Pretty darn cold and wintry to end the month of March...and likely into April! The mowing of the green will be delayed a bit, but certainly not denied!
