Col'Easter

Not to be confused with Nor'easter!  The inhabitants of the northeast quadrant of the US are likely growing weary of that term due to the atmospheric events of this month to date.  From damaging gales early on to crippling snows most recently, March still has plenty of winter woes in store for those anxiously awaiting true springtime weather.  The birds who feast from our feeders are a good barometer (and thermometer) of the cold as our black oil sunflower supply has quickly dwindled while the feeders are being decimated by those energy hungry winter weary feathered friends.  There will be brief respites from the relentless cold; but the overall messaging from the modeling is cold and colder relative to normals as far as the equations can see.  Please let me explain...

I'd like to start with the Great Lakes...2 graphics.  First, the amount of ice on all of the lakes compared to normal for the entire winter...obviously much more than the last 2 years, but clearly far less than the record setting 2014 ice free date.  (First week of June, Lake Superior!)

Next, the ice for just this year.  Note the 2 peaks with the surges of bitter cold in late December and then again in early February.  I believe we will add to those twin peaks by adding a 3rd max here at the end of March as the normal ice amounts quickly diminish at this time of year; but not this year!

Now I know many of you reading this are very curious as to the potential wintry weather for this upcoming week.  Rest assured, it will be wintry!  Let's put it this way; enjoy Sunday's rather benign weather as we may achieve 50ºF under mostly sunny skies!  After that, the next 5 look cold and potentially stormy.  When in a "blocking" pattern, the day to day changes are not so great in terms of temperature; the forecasting of storms is much more tricky.  Here is what a blocking pattern looks like from 23,000 miles away...note the water vapor moving northwestward from the central plains up towards Edmonton O Canada!  Also note the Arctic slide towards PA and the northeast US!

And I know many of you want a snow forecast.  But until this energy over the west coast comes ashore, it will be difficult to determine the paths of lowest pressures.  One thing to note, the southern jet stream is loaded with moisture as seen above.  Note the flow from west of the Baja across the southern US, a real concern with cold arctic air in place!  I circled using purple the vorticity (spin energy) that needs to be monitored for mid-week madness.  That bowling ball off of Cali and that strong jet further south will interact; just how so is the big question!  Again, note the NW flow over PA!

My fear is what just occurred in New England could just occur somewhere here in the Mid-Atlantic later this week...these snow totals were quite impressive!

Note the New England snow depth as of St. Patty's Day!  Wow!  There is mucho water in that glacier making for what should be an epic "mud & flood season" in the north country!

Quick snapshots of upcoming cold...5 day average of cold this upcoming work week...

Then, next weekend through the remainder of the month!  Again, a 5 day mean!  Brrr...

A one day snapshot of the day before Easter...col'easter!  Not very nice for opening days for MLB in the eastern half of the country!

How about through April?  Ouch...

OK...enough already...I know!  By the way, how 'bout them Chesapeake Bay Retrievers!  Enjoy this lesson ditty as you sing and dance and look for leprechauns this weekend!  Enjoy!

Smitty

AA:  Pretty darn cold and wintry to end the month of March...and likely into April!  The mowing of the green will be delayed a bit, but certainly not denied!