Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
Just a very brief post this morning as I'd like to show y'all the beauty of the atmosphere from above. The satellite picture in question is from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). I know...nerd; geek! Relax! It's a good tool to inspect from above terra mater. Let's use yesterday's snowfall as the snapshot to observe...
I tried to snip from a mosaic the region around the mid-Atlantic coast which includes most of VA, WVA, NY, PA, NJ, DE, and southern New England. I also "highlighted" 3 areas to inspect in greater detail. Let's start with the blue arrows. Note the linear band that runs SSW to NNE similar to I-81. This is a good shot of the nature of the banding of the precipitation in yesterday's snow. Often, this is the case with a coastal developing storm. The cyclonic flow brings waves of moisture off the ocean and aligns with the topography of the adjacent landmass. Have an imagination...that line, and several others align parallel to the coast as the forced lifting from the elevated land helps in forming these bands. If you're under one of these bands, voila, heavier snow! Lancaster and Berks county had a solid 5-6" event as these locations remained under one of these more intensely precipitating bands for several hours as the storm moved up the coast! Meanwhile, a mere 50-75 west of the last band, skies were filled only with high cirrus or no clouds at all as very dry air was moving in on the backside flow from O Canada.
Now, note the red region. Very bubbly clouds indicating good upward motion and thus good pockets of precipitation. Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Lehigh and Montgomery counties all reported a solid 6" event yesterday. Pockets of 1/4 mile visibility snows are clearly evident as seen from MODIS.
Lastly, the convection and thunderstorms that evolved over the "warm" oceans! The gulf stream runs ENE off the mid-Atlantic coast and carries vast quantities of fuel (warm water) for these storms. A nice baroclinic (a temp, pressure, density thing!) zone (I know...nerd, geek!) steers these storms up along the coast and helps deepen the storm. Look at the anomalous warmth of our coastal waters...
And here is a graphic depiction the observed Sea Surface Temps (SST)...that's mid-upper 60sºF water just off the Delmarva and deepening lows love that energy! You can also clearly note the gulf stream starting with the "loop current" in the Gulf of Mexico and migrating northward along the Florida coast...
OK...enough "Sunday School"! Enjoy the 2nd Sunday of Advent...and enjoy this Christmas ditty...
I'm out...the gym awaits...
Smitty
AA: Technological Device output Analysis (TDA) of a MODIS satellite pic!
Once past today's little skiff with winter weather, my eyes shift to the POTENTIAL of a rather memorable December snowfall event prior to a warm-up the week leading to Christmas. Now, I do not think a "blow-torch" is coming anytime here in December, but a relaxing of the jet and its digging troughs into the eastern part of the continent will abate and more seasonal air will be around for the Big Guy's preparations to visit PA. But when he comes, I believe he will bring yet another shot of the arctic air with him. Let me try to explain...this pattern is wired for sound!
First off, today's snowfall will be an event for the Delmarva and Jersey; not so much for KMDT...but it will get people into the festive spirit for the holidays.
The passing and deepening of this coastal low will serve to dump arctic air into these parts as seen by the 500 mb chart. Follow the isobars back NW from PA as they commence over the arctic ocean and even the pole. Take a look...
That little wave in Nebraska might be a sneaky event for Monday, but I'm looking for something a tad more nefarious for later in the week. I do believe another whitening is on tap for early week prior to the potential for later in the week. The cold again is the easy part of the forecast; the timing of these waves and the potential to join 2 jets is the real challenge! Here is a graphic of the 5 day mean for cold this upcoming week. That is ~10ºC below norms or a good 15º-18ºF below our 30 year average. And just to let my faithful readers know, for KMDT, the normal max is currently 43ºF and the normal min is 27ºF...so that is one cold outbreak depicted below!
And what I will be watching over the next several model runs is how the energy in Iowa and Missouri interacts with its surroundings. The energy back over the Baja, if any piece of that can translate east to help amplify that wave in the mid-levels...well...it COULD get interesting in these parts. Might become a "Manitoba Mauler"! No interaction; then a simple "Sasky Screamer". Again, the ducks are on the pond, but let's see what transpires in the next few days in numerical modeling world!
Whatever does occur, a relaxing of the cold (it has to from what will be a VERY cold week) will occur the week before Christmas. However, the global modeling ensembles are suggesting another arctic attack for Christmas to New Years week...take a look! That vast area of "Barney" color is diving SE towards the lakes and heading for the northeast in the frames prior. It could be a very cold Christmas Day, but that is 16 days hence...waaaay tooooo far to hone in on that.
And the Euro ensembles are seeing the cold hold over the next month... and for you snow lovers, that is the prime ingredient for the blanket of white! Speaking of that, take a gander at the current snow cover...hey...it don't snow in Mexico!
OK...I've rambled long enough. I'll leave y'all with a folk song written by Joni Mitchell and recorded by many artists over the years. My favorite version is performed by Sarah McLachlan but I'll send y'all off with yet another outstanding female vocalist. Enjoy!
Thanks for reading! I'm out, my coffee needs refilled!
Smitty
AA: A wintry week on tap...along with several solid stouts at area establishments for this kinda weather! Watching for trouble late week???
The energy and amplitude of the jet stream is "off the charts" from what I observe not only currently, but well into the future. Snows deep into the Lower Rio Grande Valley and deep south with a solid nor'easter, albeit a tad strung out, moving off the east coast this weekend followed by what I believe will be what will feel like brutal cold for the bulk of next week. This high amplitude pattern is fanning the flames via the oft feared Santa Ana Winds at this time of year in southern California as well! Let's take a gander...
First, a widespread view of the short range reliable NAM for accumulating snows across the eastern US. That's quite a swath of snow from TX to ME...wowser!
New Orleans will miss out of the fun since Lake Ponchartrain will keep the City of New Orleans warm thanks to the northerly flow over the near 60ºF water. There will be NO SNOW FOR YOU! Still impressive for December 8!
This storm just missed "phasing" as seen in the 500 mb anomalies...note the energy in the south just missing perfect north-south alignment with the digging upper energy from the arctic!
Note the low surface pressure over the lakes and the low over the gulf stream in the Atlantic...a near miss!
But that's not the only game in town! There will other opportunities for these short waves join forces and spin up an appreciable snowfall in these parts before the big guy heads south in a couple of weeks! That is one deep trough and very low upper atmospheric heights for this time of year...aka...lot's of potential!
It will be cold to be sure as the graphic below is a FIVE DAY mean temp anomaly! Brrrrr...
OK...gotta run. You know the drill; my pups are nosing at me wanting their kibble. Ziggy and Zola's biorhythms are more reliable than Hillary's email servers! So with all of that said, I'll leave you with a version of White Christmas that I thoroughly enjoy and I hope y'all will too!
I'm out...
Smitty
AA: Cold and getting colder! Just missing out on a nice snowfall Saturday; wide right! But there are other ducks on the pond so to speak. Stay tuned!
The first ingredient for snowfall is cold air at all levels of the atmosphere, top to bottom. I believe that is an easy ingredient once past Wednesday. The second ingredient is ample moisture to either overrun or dynamically being lifted with a solid cold temp profile from the surface to 2-3 miles up. Either way, both should be in effect for this upcoming week. By the way, at this first week of Advent, I believe snow WILL be on the ground when we christians celebrate the birth of our Saviour. Let me explain...
Both the American...
And the Euro...
...have an idea of a wave low pressure developing on the front and giving a bit of accumulating snow in the coastal plain from the Mason-Dixon northward. One thing to be sure is that it will be much colder than recent days...how about 10°F below seasonal norms? As per the Euro...
OK...I've let y'all know the gentle weather of autumn is going to quickly snap and deliver winter-like weather in these parts...likely for the next 30 days plus...which for many will be a rude awakening as we've been blessed with a mild autumn. Many love the prospects of a "White" Christmas, and I truly believe from studying the pattern that this year it is likely that Christmas will be cold with at least an inch of snow on the ground. Here is a map of climatological averages...
With all of that said, enjoy this tune from a Canuck who most likely loves the cold and snow and ice and all of winter's glories. Those of you have read these posts over the last couple of years know I love this artist! Enjoy...
And have a great week in anticipation of Christmas. I will continue to monitor the impending winter-like weather for my faithful readers...Bundle up and Buckle up!
Out...
Smitty
AA: The cold forecast is easy; now I'm thinking snow on the ground by the weekend!
Once I cleaned up my desk and departed from school, I arrived at home and first greeted my two four legged wonders (or should I say they greeted me!), treated them to the usual biscuits, brewed a nice cup of decaf (complete with MCT powder), and got to look at the pm runs of the numerical models. If you are a winter weather enthusiast, well, they did not disappoint. There looks to be some wx talking over the next several weeks! It will be quite a change from the rather benign pattern we've been locked into! Let me describe...
First, let's play the game Find the Arctic Front! Temps will drop throughout the day Wednesday in these parts as true arctic air invades from the NW. The observations across the state of Florida will be rather interesting that day...Pensacola might be near 40ºF while Jacksonville basks near 80ºF! Impressive to be sure...
And speaking of Florida, this graphic shows how strong this front will be as anomalous cold moves all the way down the peninsula...amazing! Graphic below is for next Sunday morning...
For a 5 day average (Wednesday-Sunday), this is noteworthy for this early in the cold season...
And by Sunday, the arctic hounds will feel at home as snow will fly and blanket much of the north country east of the Mississippi setting the stage for repeated cold shots to be longer and possibly even stronger...
At least the longer range climate models (usually warm biased) feel that way. First, the temp anomalies for December...remember, the graphic below includes the first 6 mild days upcoming!
And even into the 1st 15 days of the new year...
OK...the coffee has been drunk and the doggie biscuits have lost their satiation, at least for our big boy...Ziggy the Flabrador! He keeps whining to eat his din-din (that little devil...he'll sit still with any humiliating prop just to get that biscuit from the photographer)!
OK...enjoy this ditty to kick off you week's end...I don't think this song gets enough air time...
I'm out...
Smitty
AA: Looks certain that an acrtic shot will invade the US next Tuesday and reach the east coast by Wednesday. Make sure you get your outside lights up by then!
After what has been a dry and relatively mild end of November, the 1st full week of December will continue to be the same. But once we get to the end of next week, the proverbial bottom will be poised to drop out. This will be a real cold slap in the face (or in keeping with news of the current times...some other unspeakable location on one's anatomy...)! Let me show y'all how this evolves...
First the past week of mildness/warmth especially in the northern plains. The only reason PA is not above norms is the fact the the days around Thanksgiving dawned very cold with both turkey day and the Black Friday sunrise temps hovering around 20°F at our humble abode! The sun and dry weather allowed for temps to rebound nicely but from rather low levels for this time of year! Take a look...
If you believe the model below...and I do, coast to coast warmth will rule the roost for the 1st week of December...
But before you know it, the jet stream will buckle from our benign zonal west to east flow to a rather amplified pattern that will usher in some very cold air for this time of year...especially without any snow cover in these parts. But O Canada is plenty snow covered, and the invading arctic air masses will not moderate as quickly and will actually spread the the white arctic carpet further and further south by next week's end...First the convoluted and amplified jet over North America...that is one seriously deep trough!
And with that, the 850 temps will crash! The dreaded "Barney"colors are once again appearing...
That is one heck of a cold shot! In fact, this 5 day average is nothing to sneeze at keeping in mind the 1st 36 hours of this are actually above normals. 5°C is actually closer to 10°F below seasonal norms...and for this time of year, Baby, it's gonna get cold outside!
Now I know what is on everyone's mind...is it gonna snow??? Well, one thing I can almost assure you is yes...but I can't promise when! Ha! But to be sure, the first ingredient will certainly be in place...and I believe locked in at least through Christmas and likely into the new year. Quite a change from the last 2 Decembers! Take a look...
OK...gotta heat the soup my lovely bride has created. We've been supping with squash and or sweet spud soup blended together with all of the usual suspects and add some sort of greens (collards/kale/radish/etc...). Tonight's amalgamation is sans greens, however. (I actually put a drop of Dave's Insanity Sauce in for some added heat...yummy.) Still will be awesome!
By the way...a 4.4 earthquake just hit 10 km ENE of Dover, DE...just thought you might like to know...I did not feel it; I have the music on just a tad too loud...
Of course, the song choice is easy with my reference above...enjoy!
I'm out...
Smitty
AA: Gonna get darn cold by end of next week...so get all of your fall cleanup taken care of this week's end when temps will be slightly above norms. By next Friday/Saturday...cold and getting colder!
Good news for those traveling; bad news for recharging the water table (although the groundwater is quite fine, thank you due to a rather wet summer in these parts...). But, it's been quite some time when I saw a 10 day forecast with ZERO precip for KMDT during the cold season. Take a look...
And for those of you who prefer a climatological graphic to depict our wet time...well, here you go! Note the wet summer (numerous thunderstorms during July and August) and the recent record cold around Veteran's Day earlier this month...
I believe the next week will be cool, but not bitter cold for this time of year. Here is a graphic of the temperature anomaly for the next 7 days as per the Euro...clearly favoring colder than normal here in the east. I will mention, however, that the modeling has been struggling with consistency this past week with numerous mixed signals from the planet's oceans...
That cold conveyor from BC will certainly maintain its characteristic cold as all of O Canada is currently snow and ice covered and likely will be until spring unless a strong Canadian chinook kicks in for the plains of Alberta. Note the extensive snow and ice cover across our neighbors to the north.
Alright, with the reference to Alberta, my song choice is very easy. Enjoy this toe-tapper from one of my favorite Canuck Crooners...
And absolutely enjoy your day of thanks...and an oven warming the kitchen will be welcome as the daytime max might stay south of 40°F! I'm out...
Smitty
AA: Cool/Cold and dry next 10 days or so. Maybe no measureable precip until 1st weekend of December...if even by then?
