First Hard Freeze and First Flakes of 2017-18

After yet another disappointing loss on the part of the Nits, I took to studying the weather as we get deeper into the cold season.  There are many mixed signals being sent by the atmospheric engine and both global models last evening were at polar opposites as to what the wx holds for the 7-10 day period.  Well, overnight, they came into a bit better agreement which gave me just a tad more confidence to send this your way.  First, I do believe the easiest part of this prognostication is the likely cold/1st real hard freeze coming our way on Veterans Day.  Here is the Euro's take on the sprawling area of Arctic high pressure over the NE...

And the associated cold temps compared to norms...when the "Barney" colors show, that's a tad cold at this time of year!

Both global models show a developing coastal system off the Delmarva; here's the Euro's spin on this system...

With the GFS at about the same time with a stronger system about 150 miles SSE of the mouth of the Delaware Bay...

With the GFS further off the coast, the heaviest of the precip stays further SE as well...take a look...

The Euro has a more robust precipitation event for eastern PA...with a "hot-spot" over Sullivan & Lycoming Counties...

And with a heavy precip event, the atmosphere can manufacture its own cold air in addition to what is already in place and available...and both models do hint at accumulating snows...1st the Euro...an elevation dependant I-81 special for the eastern parts of the state...

And the American GFS...one that indicates a colder solution as the storm develops stronger a bit further off the coast pulling in the cold from O Canada a tad more robustly...also an elevation dependant solution as noted with high ground in WV, MD, and even South Mountain in PA...in fact, a small snow max is modeled in northern York County with respect to Reeser's Summit!

Anyway, it's waaaaay toooooo early to predict snowfall at 8 days hence, but it's just one more indication that our past warm spell will likely come to a screeching halt; and maybe with a blitz package to boot!  

OK...enough said this morning.  I'll leave y'all with this outstanding take of Etta James' blues tune performed at the White House a few years back...just feeling a tad bluesy this am thanks to the sub-par performance from PSU yesterday...maybe that lengthy wx delay had an adverse effect?  But it was lengthy for both teams...right?  

Enjoy your Sunday!  And remember to get out and vote Tuesday!  If you live in Region 2 of the CDSD...the choice is pretty darn clear; VOTE FOR MAZZ!

Smitty

AA:  Turning much colder by Friday with a few flakes possibly being detected; it's getting to be that time of year!  Mowing soon to be halted until next spring!

Frontal (PSU) Distress

I'm sitting here pounding the keys just a bit harder as I just watched PSU lose to their rival OSU when given so many opportunities to walk away with a W...OH WELL...

When watching the game, I noticed the chill that settled over the Horseshoe and that same chill is heading our way.  Currently, temps are in the upper 30s in western PA whereas they are still hanging near 70 in SE PA around Philly.  In fact, the 11 am obs from Columbus airport reported light snow and 35°F indicating the strength of this pressing cold air mass.  Essentially, the front will slow and hook up with a newly named tropical system...which frankly did not need to be named...

But when tropical moisture and water vapor energy is injected into a digging cold air mass...be aware!  Kinda like knocking on a door for Mazz when there's a protective Pit Bull inside the house and the screen door was totally ajar!  I shoved that door closed faster than a bolt of TDs from OSU in Q4. And the lady asked 2 minutes into our conversation...so how's your heart by now? Long Island and Southern New England are in for quite a blow!  Ok...Ok...maps...total rainfall as per the Euro operational by Monday...

And the GFS is comparably wet...

Bottom line...rainout Sunday into early Monday!  And for those of you looking forward to the month of November...well, cold interior, but hanging warmth in the east...as per the Euro.

OK...I'm out...Just like PSU.  I'm still reeling; opening KO return...win the game! So I'll leave y'all with this "blues" tune, non-traditional!  Not in the mood for a rockin' bluesy tune; nonetheless, enjoy!

And enjoy your Sunday Funday!

Smitty

AA:  Heavy rainfall into Monday morning; PSU downer...

A Change of Seasons

I know it's been awhile...a long while to be sure.  It was about 10 days prior to Harvey wreaking havoc in the Houston area that I last blogged about the weather and weather there was!  Harvey, Irma, Jose, and of course Maria.  But for us, the weather was rather benign.  In fact, when the temps are above norms in October, well, in my humble opinion, that's kinda nice!  Here is the last 6 weeks to date in terms of temps...

But I believe the month ahead of us will slap us hard in terms of a polar opposite temperature anomaly...the onset of winter is already starting with a nice late October winter storm across the north country of Minne-haha tonight...take a look...

On the other side of the pole, the snow-cover is being laid down a bit earlier than normal as well...much of Russia (collusion...sorry, I was just associating freely!) is covered with the arctic blanket.

So with all of that said, we have an air mass that started on the other side of the pole that will be digging deep into our continent...take a look!  Those blue-purple-green colors indicate a serious change in the weather; a rude awakening to be sure with the anomalous warmth we've experienced for the last several weeks!

And as for how dry it's been, that's about to change as well as a tropical disturbance looks to phase with this digging energy from the northlands and the proverbial "pour gasoline onto a fire" will bomb a storm off the east coast this weekend...take a look!  Not a total phase as the little tropical piece lays off to the SSE...if that would entrain...well...watch out!

And the heavy rains overnight Sunday into Monday...the graphic below is only a 6 hour snapshot of precip!

Here's the total precip through early next week...

Ok...'nough said...just trying to get back a feel for this blogging thing as I've had many ask "where's the posts"?  So with this changing pattern, I thought I'd clue in my loyal readers...and as always...thanks so much for reading!

I've listened to a nice quantity of quality music this evening and I'm not sure what I should include and share with y'all...but I did mention Maria earlier.  And for my bud, Chuck, I'll embed this recent classic from Carlos...enjoy!

And enjoy your Halloween Penn State over OSU weekend!

Smitty

AA:  Getting colder and wetter for the foreseeable future!  And I do me colder...and wetter!

O Canada; Oh My!

As I continue to monitor the situation with blowhard Harvey, I am also keeping one eye on soon to be Irma...at least I believe so.  And although the Euro and the GFS keep Irma out to sea, the Canadian global numerical model has a rather concerning solution...especially in its previous run...take a look...

The above scenario would be a bit disconcerting for us here in the mid-Atlantic.  With that said, the trend of the model is now to keep it further away...and that is good news!  Take a look; first off the Outer Banks and the VA capes...

And then 6 hours later pulling away with the Gulf Stream...here's hoping.  Bottom line; must keep our watch for soon to be Irma...

So you know my deal...gotta leave y'all with a good tune.  The top most graphic would be an affirmation for the song sung below...Enjoy!

Smitty

AA:  The Canadian is a fairly reliable model and this has me a tad concerned for the middle of next week.  Just get your mowing done!

Harvey to Hammer Houston

It's no secret now that Hurricane Harvey has it eye set on the central Texas coast and that as it slowly approaches landfall, it will eventually stall over SE TX before pulling back to sea and sending its moisture eventually our way.  It has been TWELVE years since a Major hurricane has made landfall in the US; Wilma was the last in the epic year of tropical troubles in 2005.  A major hurricane is one that is Saffir Simpson Scale 3, 4 or 5.   Take a look at the Saffir Simpson Scale for Hurricanes...

Hurricanes are a lot of wind, but more importantly they are a ton of rain and water!  With the slow movement progged for this storm, some very heavy rainfall totals, record breaking in some areas, are likely with this storm.  Here is a close-up of the rainfall totals from the go-to global Euro model...the regional models have even higher totals!  Coastal flooding will also be severe as the storm slowly grinds unto the coast and water piles on the NE side of the storm with surges of ~10' or so...wow!

Just off the coast of Galveston Bay (in the graphic above) has nearly 3' of rainfall!  It's not out of the question for some areas to actually record 3' of rain with this devastating event.  And as I mentioned earlier, the remnants will eventually track up towards PA, possibly giving us a rather wet time of it for the 1st part of the Labor Day weekend...use the graphic below to track the moisture...I personally believe the track of the heaviest rains will somewhat follow a bit further SE and up the Ohio River valley...also note the the heavy rains over South Florida and just off the SE coast.  It looks like a near miss with what I believe will be Irma by Friday am...

Here is a graphic showing the Thursday pm positions of both Harvey and soon to be Irma?

And the current watches and warnings in these troubled tropical lands...note the frost advisory for the UP of Michigan.  That cool crisp O Canadian air will control our wx for the next several days...so enjoy!

I'll leave y'all with this 8.5 minute gem; truly a bluesy time will be unfortunately had for these resilient folks of Texas...

Let's all hope this storm is not as bad as what sure looks like will occur...and let's keep that Irma? system from developing too close to the coast of the SE USA.  Enjoy your pre-start-of-school 3 day week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Really hoping the people in TX heed the warnings; Harvey (how appropriate, a real blowhard!) looks ugly from my seat;  FL and the Carolinas to be spared this time I do believe, but just by a hair on my chinny chin chin...and you know I've gots lots of those!  Catch up on your mowing!

Tropics to Make Some News

It was excellent to see all of my colleagues today back in the saddle in the CDSD and with that, it got me to tickle these keys again as well.  This post will not be about the eclipse; it was awesome to be sure, but the fact that over the next 5-7 days, a couple of tropical systems are going to create real headaches for coastal Texas and coastal Florida and the coastal Carolinas.  Let me explain...and I will be brief.  Here are the projected rainfall totals across eastern Texas as modeled by the Euro...

And a close-up of those epic rainfall totals centered on Houston and Galveston Bay...

TS Harvey...which should ramp up into a Cat 1 or even Cat 2 storm by Saturday will pound those coastal TX communities for a good 2 days or so...well...maybe not so good!  As for the Florida situation, soon to be Irma will slowly ride north along the east coast of FL.  Here, the Euro keeps the heaviest rains over the Bahama mamas, but personally, I believe some very heavy rains will manifest themselves from Miami to the Space Coast...just sayin'...then the Carolina coasts must be made aware...

OK...enough to let y'all know that tropical troubles are a brewin'.  And in honor of Glen Campbell, who passed earlier this month, and since I mentioned this geographical location above, I'll leave y'all with this...Enjoy!  And enjoy this glorious end of summer, low dew point weather for our area!

Smitty

AA:  Just a post about some tropical systems that I'm not hearing too much about, but I believe we will after the weekend!  Good grass cutting weather the next entire week!  Enjoy!

July

As we begin our warmest month of the summer, I always like to look ahead and try to see what the modeling is suggesting for the upcoming month.  But before I do that, let's look at the month behind us.  As most of you know, we just completed a glorious stretch of weather earlier this past week.  In fact, it was actually very much below seasonal norms in the upper mid-west and northern plains, but here in our area and the mid-Atlantic in general, although cool, the heat returned triumphantly.  There was essentially a mini-heat wave centered in PA...here are the last 2 days...note the cold in Manitoba!

And the last 2 weeks...note the heat in the famous megalopolis from DC to Boston...

And if you're unsure of a megalopolis, here's a graphic of population density for the I-95 corridor; the darker the shade of brown, the greater the population density.  The darkest shading indicates regions in excess of 7,500 people per square mile!

Sorry I digress...you know, my ADD just kicked in!  Now, how about the last month in terms of temps?  Look at how the heat held serve around the Chesapeake Bay much to my wife's dismay as we sit at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in a pool of sweat watching the Orioles tank during this past month!  Ouch...like my lovely wife says, baseball is about the pitching and the Os have had little quality pitching this past month!  Now yet another digression; baseball flavored this time...sorry.  Here's the map of the past 30 days...

So what might July hold in store for us in terms of temps?  First, the Euro's take on the next 5 days at the 500 mb level.  A net flow in these parts from the west and southwest with slightly above normal heights.  That would indicate temps at or above climatological norms with relatively high humidity...

And for this upcoming weekend after the July 4 celebrations...a weakness in the upper air over the eastern portion of the continent could pave the way for slightly cooler than normal temps and seasonal humidity levels.  The pattern below also spells heat will once again invade SW deserts and the 4 Corners region of the US...

Here is a snapshot of the Euro's next 10 days in exact numbers of highs and lows; next weekend it appears a new refreshing shot of cooler and drier air may invade from O'Canada on a strong upper air NW flow before yet another surge of heat humidity invades for the middle of the month...

And July as a whole...slightly cool in the eastern half of the CONUS; warm western half.  Do note that consistent tongue of warmth over the Chesapeake Bay region...which to me indicates strong down-sloping and therefore warming with WNW flow off the Appalachians...

OK...enough..  July is summertime and with it is heat and humidity.  So enjoy the summer season and enjoy this hit from the 70s...

Smitty

AA:  June was basically normal in terms of temps in spite of the hot spells and strong cool downs...July looks to be similar with no real prolonged periods of heat and humidity; just a alternating mix of cooler times and warmer/hotter times...and, oh by the way, we live on the northwest fringe of a very densely populated region of the US...but you already knew that having to drive I-81 all the time!  Looking forward to ASG at Bluebird!