Definitive Dennis

Well, today is my twin brothers' birthday.  OK Smitty, what does that have to do with the price of coffee in Columbia?  I'm glad you asked!  When conversing with my one brother today, he reminded me of the stories our father told of toting home his March 12 newborns from the hospital in very deep snow.  That was 1956; and here are the snow totals from that notable storm.

Now that 1956 storm was simply an Alberta Clipper on steroids.  It did not have the same upper air support as what we are seeing for the impending system to affect the upper mid-west, mid-Atlantic and New England.  Nor did it have a low pressure system that emanated from the Gulf of Mexico that this synoptic set-up will have.  When a 500 mb closed low strolls through northern VA as shown below, that is often a south central PA special!  Those screaming winds at 18,000 ft will spin up quite a nor'easter.  Take a look...

And here is another look at the height anomaly for this 500 mb pressure field.  If you are a snow lover, that graphic is a thing of beauty coupled with the surface features!  Also, a ridge over Yellowstone often delivers the goods here as well...It seems to me the stars have aligned for a south central PA special!

I will display just one snowfall model map; the Euro dynamic ratio map.  This takes into account many variables that contribute to dendrite growth; upward motion, upper air temps, and deep atmospheric moisture.  It is essentially a weighted average of all of the atmospheric variables that supply the snowflakes their necessary ingredients to develop.  Check it out...

That heavy band from LANCO to Albany, NY is a combo of a front-end heavy snowfall and the backlash of the deformation of high ratio snows.  Where that backlash band sets up could add an additional 6"+ on the earth below...those are ALWAYS tricky to forecast.  

I also like to look at analogs too.  Here is the top analog based on the GFS...Since this is a February storm below, all of the snow accums are a bit further south; shift this a hundred miles north and east and this looks very close to the Euro output.  Time will tell...

What I do know is that it is quite cold!  Take a look at what should be our max temps for the day!  Temps will not be an issue here at the surface; however, if the storm deepens rapidly and pulls in milder ocean air in the upper levels, a period of sleet could materialize leading to some concrete type accumulations under the fluffy backlash that will blow and drift to some extent!  Warnings might even elevate to blizzard conditions if the wind can become an issue.  I don't believe that will happen here in the KMDT area, but we may see Blizzard conditions and warnings hoisted in the Lehigh Valley of PA.  Brrrrr...

Below is the wind map for Wednesday; a large pressure gradient is setting up across PA for later Tuesday night into Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the NW.  Tuesday's winds will be manageable...

Ok...I think you get the picture; a classic March winter storm is on the horizon.  I guess you could accurately call it Meteorological March Madness!  So my final definitive call; +/- 2" either side of 14; in other words, let's go 12-16".  I'm concerned that I might be a tad conservative, but I am often called "Chicken Little" amongst my friends.  So being the conservative that I am,  I will go conservative with my definitive totals.  After all, the Indigo Girls seem to agree; "...The Less I seek my source for some definitive, the closer I am to fine". Enjoy their take...

And enjoy your Meteorological March Madness!

Smitty

AA:  Looking at a major snowstorm in these parts Monday night into Wednesday.  My final call; 12-16" with cold to follow.  Snow will be around for awhile, too!  Also, keeping an eye wide open for this weekend.  Another clipper to invade with yet another likely accumulating snowfall.  The winter that never was now doesn't want to leave!  

Likely Louie

Over the past week, I have evolved quickly from "Doubting Dennis" through my ambivalent stage of "Nervous Nellie" to a now just less than certain "Likely Louie".  As most of y'all know, this is my hobby; to peruse the weather systems not just around our region, but across the CONUS and for that part, anomalous weather across the globe.  I was seeing the teleconnections from the Pacific Ocean hinting at a return to winter for a period here in March (MJO, EPO)..."O" in those previous abbv. represent oscillation where there are well known swings of a back-forth nature in the oceans and subsequently in the atmosphere as well.  For our sensible weather in these parts, simply think of it as warm-cold-warm-cold for the winter months.  But when these swings occur at the end of winter, major storm systems can fire.  I believe we have one waiting to spin up early next week...Here we go...I'll start y'all with what you want; accumulations from the models.  I'll show just the GFS this time as it has been rock solid for the last several runs; not that the Euro hasn't been, but the GFS a tiny bit more consistent...

If you look very closely, that 2' spot in York County is close to where our humble abode sits!  Anyway, analog weather forecasting is one of many tools to help predict future weather systems; take a snap shot of the atmospheric conditions from surface to stratosphere and compare the physical conditions to those of the past and let the computers sort through the myriad of data to determine the outcome of those initial conditions "x" number of days later.  Well, I will share with you the top 3 analogs from late this afternoon for early next week...Drumroll...First...#1; March 18, 2007...

Looks reasonable with the exception that coastal ME had a changeover which limited snow accumulations.  Also, the overall amount of precipitable water looks to be less than what I believe will be made available early next week.  Number 2...February 15, 2014...

This also is quite believable; however, just a tad too much snowfall down into the Smokies, but keep in mind, we are 1 month later than this analog.  A solid 1-2' through our immediate region...now #3...this anaolg just keeps showing up through all of the different time frames as well; never a top dog, but always within the top 5 analogs...the infamous March 1993!  A fully phased longitudinal planetary wave...I just get the heebie-jeebies typing that!  Essentially the arctic branch, the polar branch, and the sub-tropical branch of the jet stream all come together and play nicely together.  Clearly a difficult task; but not impossible.  (In fact, THREE branches of the jet stream are far more likely to work together than TWO PARTIES in our government.)  Sorry...just needed to be said.  That solution is certainly on the table, but I personally believe that happens about 3-4 times a century climatologically.  But come to think about it, 1993 was nearly a quarter century ago...?  Just sayin'...

The March 1993 nor'easter is the Number 1 NESIS (Northeast Snowfall  Impact Scale) system of all time.  Take a look...I remember that weekend like it was yesterday complete with sleet, thundersnow, and an entire week to get things back to normalcy due to the brutal cold that followed!  Again, I'm not saying that is this sytem next week, but it is certainly a possibility...

OK...I've hyped this enough for this evening.  Stay tuned.  Thanks for reading...And I'll leave y'all with a different story for a different type of snow...most are familiar with Clapton's take so I'll share Jackson Browne's lyric...enjoy at least the tune...

Smitty

AA:  Watching and waiting on our biggest snowfall for the 2016-17 cold season.  COULD be a doozy.  Double digits for many in/around our area.

Nervous Nellie

"Whoa Nellie!"  I always loved that call...in the fall watching college football with Keith Jackson, not approaching the middle of March with spring on everyone's minds.  But by March 15...beware the "Ides of March", that is just what we might be yelling in these parts!

As I arrived home this glorious Wednesday afternoon, temps in the low 60s, a beautiful bloom of croci which just popped greeted me outside my front door.  With the recent rains and the slowly becoming potent March sun, these beauts made their statement about the potential weather.

I'm sorry to say that a "Crocus Crusher" just may be in store for these guys...and I'm not talking about our 4-legged kids Ziggy and Zola.  Or possibly a "Jonquil Quasher" for these radiant flowers below...forgive me, but it is difficult to utilize alliteration with "Jonquil" without my lovely language arts instructor sitting somewhere nearby...so any insights from y'all would be helpful...Russ!

OK...enough with the foofoo Smitty...what's the weather going to be like?  Well, the easy part of the upcoming week is the invasion of a solid arctic air mass commencing Friday and slowly retreating by the middle to end of next week.  Here is a pic of the 5 day means (ensembles) at 1 mile up from Saturday morning to Wednesday morning...Brrrrr!  Or as I told a colleague today...Grrrrrr!  All maps henceforth will be the Euro; however, all of the modeling is coming into solid agreement!

The first alarm will be sounded late Thursday into Friday with the cold advecting into our region just as a kink in the upper air traverses through PA along the PA turnpike.  This will usher in the arctic air from the northlands as a white carpet will be spread on the earth for the entrance of "King Kold".  Daytime maxes will struggle to reach freezing both days over the weekend!  Frankly, this will be the coldest air since mid-December! In fact, if we do have any significant snow cover on the ground for Sunday morning, we may reach our lowest temp of the entire winter! Unreal!  Here is the progged forecast for the "white carpet" by Friday...

The amounts above look reasonable, but these are 10:1 ratios.  Looking at the 850 mb temps while the snow is falling, the dendrite production may be maximized as the colder temps will allow for a higher ratio snowfall.  But 3" looks ok to me.  The next wave gets suppressed far to our south since the kold is king and steers the wimpy clipper system off to the south...here's a map for my Carolina "Querriers"...just a note, the GFS is even more bullish on a heavier swath in the same location the Euro below is indicating...just an FYI...

But for us, the real fun 'n' games will be Monday night into Tuesday!  As I've mentioned to many people the last several days, in a pattern like this with a deep and aggressive trough digging into the east, the "caboose" can sometimes be a dandy.  While I'm not suggesting a "crippling" snowfall (Yokes), I do believe that the caboose will shut down some parts of the east this upcoming Tuesday...The map below is a 24 hour total of snowfall ending Tuesday evening.

OK...I've depressed you seekers of spring enough.  So let me pick up your spirits with this ditty! We sat in New Orleans one evening at a piano bar while this one pianist simply stole the audience with his rendition of this song.  It was rather appropriate as that evening, it poured with heavy rain, thunder, wind, and even sleet reported at the Louis Armstrong airport!   Enjoy and stay tuned!

Smitty

AA:  A major change in wx pattern.  It turns to January the weekend we "spring" our clocks forward 1 hour from standard time to saving time.  Looking at a nuisance to slightly disruptive snow Friday morning to possibly a plowable and very disruptive snowfall of ~6"+ on Tuesday; possibly our most wintry 5-7 day period of the entire winter!

Doubting Dennis

We all have heard of "Doubting Thomas".  I will not believe.  Well, I believe that the overnight run of the operational Euro has week 2 delusions!  Maybe a more contemporary analogy would be "Fake News"!   Call it what you will, but I will share with y'all what the Euro is teasing for next weekend. Here goes...First the negatively inverted 500 mb trough and a deeply anomalous one at that!

That will in turn spin up quite a surface low along the natural baroclinicity of the still warm western Atlantic and the quite cold continent...even if we miss out, New England looks to get a genuine mid-March nor'easter.

Big "banana" high ridging across O'Canada slowing the progression of the storm leads to copious amounts of frozen precip mostly in the form of snow leading to hefty accumulations often observed in these parts during February and March.  Ouch...

With that snow, the Arctic cold can settle over the northeast and delay the onset of spring fever for the masses...

I'm not buying this solution; not even for a minute.  But the pattern is such at this time of year that these upper air waves shorten, kink, and spin up some nasty nor'easters and generally mid-latitude cyclones.  The models have been all over the place the last several runs and so the daytime run today might have us basking in sunny and seventy next Sunday.  But the fact that the Euro has been pretty consistent with the upper air solutions with these deep troughs swinging through every 3-5 days (yesterday's squalls, for example), this certainly does raise some eyebrows.  But for now, call me "Doubting Dennis"!  Very interesting...

Enjoy your weekend and enjoy this rockin' ditty of times soon to come...

Smitty

AA:  A changeable weather pattern that might still have some nasty tricks up its sleeve.  A cold weekend followed by a warmer early-mid week followed by cold and ???...

March Mischief

As most of you are fully aware, the month of March in these parts can be a real spring fling heartbreaker.  I'm becoming more and more concerned that this upcoming month might create some real heartache for those wanting spring.  There is little doubt that the recent weather has been spectacular; the modeling suggests this continues for the remainder of the month!

However, by the middle of the month of March, March madness might be occurring here in terms of the weather...the cold is well advertised on both the Euro and the American longer term models.  Here is the CFS for days 20-30.  Cold starts to overwhelm the continent with a bit of a battle here in the east.  That is of some concern as temperature battles at this time of year tend to create a stormy weather pattern.

There is another atmospheric trigger known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that usually dictates how the upper air pattern evolves.  It has teleconnected admirably this winter with the "Pineapple Connection" rain events along the west coast of the USA.  The downstream effects here in the eastern CONUS usually take 2-3 weeks to become manifest. Take a look at where the MJO has been and forecast to be for the next several weeks.  Note the warm phases of 6 and 7 were occurring at the beginning of February and note how our weather is currently.  Now the MJO is progged to go into Phases 1-2 and then become null (inner circle).  Take a look...

And the Euro ensembles think that winter is not necessarily finished with us here in the east...although the control still tends to keep the storm track off to our west up through the Great Lakes keeping us on the warmer side of the storms.  But enough ensemble members create enough uncertainty to make some of us mad in March!

So Smitty...what are you saying?  I'm hoping you enjoyed these last few days and the few yet to follow because a turn to colder and potentially stormier looks to be in the cards here in the east.  Keep your one wx eye on California; if things begin to calm down there...and I believe it will...then things could get late winter ugly here in the east for a 2-3 week period.  But until then, we have several gems for February yet...so enjoy!

And enjoy this Jackson Browne classic...for we might need to "...let the music keep our spirits high..." if March roars in like a lion!

Smitty

AA:  A mild to warm remainder of February but becoming concerned that March just "may" turn late winter ugly.  By the end of March, the pattern should flip back and the brief cold snap will be a distant memory!  This winter may go down as our least snowy, but one good March storm could nulify that too.

Double Trouble

Just a very quick post as I feel that the meteorology is such that the New Englanders of this wonderful land of ours often get slighted in what the sensible weather has to offer (hammer) these folks.  After our "major" storm this past week, the clipper on steroids meant business up into the hinterlands of New England with Blizzard warnings issued from Long Island northward up into down east Maine.  Our 3 am thundersnow turned into a bona fide nor'easter 12-18 hours later...and the same will happen again this weekend!  Here is today's snow cover...

Now check out the surface pressure map for Sun am...an innocuous system at best...lowest pressure just west of Pittsburgh...

Now look 48 hours later...bombs away...warm ocean, arctic injection, and watch out...

Eastern New England is in for a Double Trouble event...and awaiting on a 3rd in my opinion...check out these snow totals...unreal!

I will wait to post on the 3rd New England storm...as that one has a bit of potential for those of us living here in the sub-tropics of south central PA...sneak peak...should correct north and west as per the usual Euro error...

So as I believe I used the term "Double Trouble"...I gotta go to one of my all-time favs...EC and his version of Double Trouble.  Enjoy! I know 8+ minutes is an issue for some, but just let it play, and walk away...and listen!  And stay tuned for mid-week...

Hope you liked Eric's blues...

Smitty

AA:  New England to get the double whammy; maybe the triple whammy if this mid-week storm materializes for us.

IV:  He soundly defeated the SmittySynopsis this past storm with an error score of 0.25 to 10.89; low score wins.  In American football terms, it was a good ol' ass kickin'!  I tried to pound the ball in my power I without the horses; he obviously countered. Good job coach!

Finally, Something to Talk About!

This is a very quick post as I was quite surprised this morning when I looked at the modeling as I do most every morning.  Finally, something to talk about?  As y'all are quite aware,  this winter has been quite, well, how do I put this, tame, mild, MIA, anything but winter...you get the idea.  I mean, it has certainly been easy on the heating bills to date but hard on guys who profit from snow removal services!  Even the contest at ABC 27 hasn't been able to award the snowblower as there has not been 1" of snow at their studios to date (I do not believe...)!   Officially, we have had a whopping 1.9" at KMDT as of this writing.  And once again this morning, (after a very clear & cold Saturday morning), temps were marginal in terms of the freezing mark!  Here is the winter to date (basically from Christmas Day) in terms of temps...not too hard to take!

In fact, even O Canada has been relatively mild as well!  Here is a snapshot of the current snowcover in the CONUS...very deep snowpack for the Rockies, Cascades, and the Sierras!

But when perusing both the Euro and the GFS this glorious morn, to my surprise, the guidance was hinting at a possible snow event for later this week!  Now one run does not create confidence in any stretch of the imagination; however, it is finally something to talk about!  Here is the Euro by Thursday am...likely to adjust northward as is often the case...

And the very bullish GFS!  I mean...really?  Did someone (darn Russians) hack into the numerical modeling supercomputers?

So...here is what I'm saying...stay tuned!  And at the very least, enjoy this on your Super Bowl Sunday!  I'd rather see this entertainer than what is scheduled for halftime this evening!

Smitty

AA:  Possibly...and I'll believe it when I see it the way this winter has been...some snow on Wednesday night into Thursday as colder air returns for the end of the week after a warm up by Tuesday.