Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
We all have heard of "Doubting Thomas". I will not believe. Well, I believe that the overnight run of the operational Euro has week 2 delusions! Maybe a more contemporary analogy would be "Fake News"! Call it what you will, but I will share with y'all what the Euro is teasing for next weekend. Here goes...First the negatively inverted 500 mb trough and a deeply anomalous one at that!
That will in turn spin up quite a surface low along the natural baroclinicity of the still warm western Atlantic and the quite cold continent...even if we miss out, New England looks to get a genuine mid-March nor'easter.
Big "banana" high ridging across O'Canada slowing the progression of the storm leads to copious amounts of frozen precip mostly in the form of snow leading to hefty accumulations often observed in these parts during February and March. Ouch...
With that snow, the Arctic cold can settle over the northeast and delay the onset of spring fever for the masses...
I'm not buying this solution; not even for a minute. But the pattern is such at this time of year that these upper air waves shorten, kink, and spin up some nasty nor'easters and generally mid-latitude cyclones. The models have been all over the place the last several runs and so the daytime run today might have us basking in sunny and seventy next Sunday. But the fact that the Euro has been pretty consistent with the upper air solutions with these deep troughs swinging through every 3-5 days (yesterday's squalls, for example), this certainly does raise some eyebrows. But for now, call me "Doubting Dennis"! Very interesting...
Enjoy your weekend and enjoy this rockin' ditty of times soon to come...
Smitty
AA: A changeable weather pattern that might still have some nasty tricks up its sleeve. A cold weekend followed by a warmer early-mid week followed by cold and ???...
As most of you are fully aware, the month of March in these parts can be a real spring fling heartbreaker. I'm becoming more and more concerned that this upcoming month might create some real heartache for those wanting spring. There is little doubt that the recent weather has been spectacular; the modeling suggests this continues for the remainder of the month!
However, by the middle of the month of March, March madness might be occurring here in terms of the weather...the cold is well advertised on both the Euro and the American longer term models. Here is the CFS for days 20-30. Cold starts to overwhelm the continent with a bit of a battle here in the east. That is of some concern as temperature battles at this time of year tend to create a stormy weather pattern.
There is another atmospheric trigger known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that usually dictates how the upper air pattern evolves. It has teleconnected admirably this winter with the "Pineapple Connection" rain events along the west coast of the USA. The downstream effects here in the eastern CONUS usually take 2-3 weeks to become manifest. Take a look at where the MJO has been and forecast to be for the next several weeks. Note the warm phases of 6 and 7 were occurring at the beginning of February and note how our weather is currently. Now the MJO is progged to go into Phases 1-2 and then become null (inner circle). Take a look...
And the Euro ensembles think that winter is not necessarily finished with us here in the east...although the control still tends to keep the storm track off to our west up through the Great Lakes keeping us on the warmer side of the storms. But enough ensemble members create enough uncertainty to make some of us mad in March!
So Smitty...what are you saying? I'm hoping you enjoyed these last few days and the few yet to follow because a turn to colder and potentially stormier looks to be in the cards here in the east. Keep your one wx eye on California; if things begin to calm down there...and I believe it will...then things could get late winter ugly here in the east for a 2-3 week period. But until then, we have several gems for February yet...so enjoy!
And enjoy this Jackson Browne classic...for we might need to "...let the music keep our spirits high..." if March roars in like a lion!
Smitty
AA: A mild to warm remainder of February but becoming concerned that March just "may" turn late winter ugly. By the end of March, the pattern should flip back and the brief cold snap will be a distant memory! This winter may go down as our least snowy, but one good March storm could nulify that too.
Just a very quick post as I feel that the meteorology is such that the New Englanders of this wonderful land of ours often get slighted in what the sensible weather has to offer (hammer) these folks. After our "major" storm this past week, the clipper on steroids meant business up into the hinterlands of New England with Blizzard warnings issued from Long Island northward up into down east Maine. Our 3 am thundersnow turned into a bona fide nor'easter 12-18 hours later...and the same will happen again this weekend! Here is today's snow cover...
Now check out the surface pressure map for Sun am...an innocuous system at best...lowest pressure just west of Pittsburgh...
Now look 48 hours later...bombs away...warm ocean, arctic injection, and watch out...
Eastern New England is in for a Double Trouble event...and awaiting on a 3rd in my opinion...check out these snow totals...unreal!
I will wait to post on the 3rd New England storm...as that one has a bit of potential for those of us living here in the sub-tropics of south central PA...sneak peak...should correct north and west as per the usual Euro error...
So as I believe I used the term "Double Trouble"...I gotta go to one of my all-time favs...EC and his version of Double Trouble. Enjoy! I know 8+ minutes is an issue for some, but just let it play, and walk away...and listen! And stay tuned for mid-week...
Hope you liked Eric's blues...
Smitty
AA: New England to get the double whammy; maybe the triple whammy if this mid-week storm materializes for us.
IV: He soundly defeated the SmittySynopsis this past storm with an error score of 0.25 to 10.89; low score wins. In American football terms, it was a good ol' ass kickin'! I tried to pound the ball in my power I without the horses; he obviously countered. Good job coach!
This is a very quick post as I was quite surprised this morning when I looked at the modeling as I do most every morning. Finally, something to talk about? As y'all are quite aware, this winter has been quite, well, how do I put this, tame, mild, MIA, anything but winter...you get the idea. I mean, it has certainly been easy on the heating bills to date but hard on guys who profit from snow removal services! Even the contest at ABC 27 hasn't been able to award the snowblower as there has not been 1" of snow at their studios to date (I do not believe...)! Officially, we have had a whopping 1.9" at KMDT as of this writing. And once again this morning, (after a very clear & cold Saturday morning), temps were marginal in terms of the freezing mark! Here is the winter to date (basically from Christmas Day) in terms of temps...not too hard to take!
In fact, even O Canada has been relatively mild as well! Here is a snapshot of the current snowcover in the CONUS...very deep snowpack for the Rockies, Cascades, and the Sierras!
But when perusing both the Euro and the GFS this glorious morn, to my surprise, the guidance was hinting at a possible snow event for later this week! Now one run does not create confidence in any stretch of the imagination; however, it is finally something to talk about! Here is the Euro by Thursday am...likely to adjust northward as is often the case...
And the very bullish GFS! I mean...really? Did someone (darn Russians) hack into the numerical modeling supercomputers?
So...here is what I'm saying...stay tuned! And at the very least, enjoy this on your Super Bowl Sunday! I'd rather see this entertainer than what is scheduled for halftime this evening!
Smitty
AA: Possibly...and I'll believe it when I see it the way this winter has been...some snow on Wednesday night into Thursday as colder air returns for the end of the week after a warm up by Tuesday.
In spite of an impending pattern change in the weather finally... (different story for a different day).....I decided to mix it up a bit to simply reflect on things gone by and things to come since 2017 has quickly come upon us. So here is a quick list of things I am so very GRATEFUL for and genuinely believe that if one focuses on the positives, life is so much more rewarding...so humor me please...
MY DOGS...who couldn't like (love...Kay) our dogs (or your own dogs/cats/pets) other than those folks like my brother who has a pet dander allergy and somehow just has a somewhat slightly different way when communicating with whatever pet lives here...
MY HUMBLE ABODE complete with hot water....although my son might argue differently as he had to deal with our place during a cold week in January! If Yokes had it his way, Kyle...your hot water needs will ALWAYS be met with mister "tankless and crank it"! It's very nice to look out the window and see things like this....
MY FAMILY:...past and present. A day doesn't go by when I think of and deeply thank both my parents, Kay's parents and other adults too numerous too mention who have mentored me in this life...this day was a blast...in spite of the rainout that later followed!
MY CURRENT CO-WORKERS:...that's why I go to work as often as I do...Saints and Sinners alike...we are trying to fight the good fight! Keep on keeping on...and...well...you get the pic! The dude below y'all might not know....but one incredible individual who to this day ranks in my top 10 of honor and valor! And...oh by the way...one hell of a teacher!
MY FORMER COWORKERS:...they are the ones who trained me to be the person I am today...much to the dismay of today's progressive liberal educators who simply have a slightly different take on the profession at this point...I'm not sure if I have any pics of those to whom I reference (prior to iPhone...etc...)....see above! EDIT: Now see below...too...
PLANET FITNESS:...Kay says I should know just about everyone now who attends regularly by his/her first name! She says I talk with people more than I work...but that's why I go to the gym! We are all human beings; in need of both physical, spiritual, and social activity. Hell, what do I care if you can deadlift 200 lbs more than me...I'm just happy I'm not dead and I can lift and I let people know it...dancing and grooving to my sometimes endorphin driven workout! It's all good and FUN! (even at 5 am!)...No pics from the gym...
MLB: Let's Go Os!...its fun to getaway! I love MLB. Even with April/May baseball when it can still be pretty raw in Baltimore! My wife IS a saint...and anyone who truly knows me...knows that is true!
DR RYAN MAUE: I'd be lost without his graphics! This man is a true talent and a blessing to those who love meteorology...just saying...this is the potential for next week...I'm not yet buying it, but his graphics say otherwise...and those of you reading this...well...your hearts might be beating as well...
MY SUBARU: 145,000 miles on my 2011 Legacy...you figure that one out! I'm going to try to get to the moon..........and back! Love my Legacy sedan!
MUSIC: You see it everytime I post...I absolutely love music...can't help it! It get's the groove on...damn sure better than rain!
DREAMS: In a few short years, Kay and I will be taking this picture...by the grace of God!
OK...enough for this evening...I thank everyone who reads...and better yet...comments back! Sorry it's not the big snowstorm prediction many of you are awaiting but February is just around the corner!...but I am still hawking....it's not too late! February CAN BE a stormy month...
Smitty
AA: Watching for a nasty storm next week, but believe it's a rainer for us....windy, wet, raw...What Conrad describes as our typical winter in these parts!
Teleconnections? Is that some hokey kinda new-fangled meteorological forecasting methodology? Well, uh, actually, YES! Many of you are familiar with or at least heard of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and even the Arctic Oscillation (AO). But over the years of my perusing weather patterns and studying oceanic teleconnections, I feel that the largest ocean in the world has the greatest impact on the world's weather! Seems reasonable to me at least. Now the most infamous oscillation is the sloshing of water in the Pacific bathtub known as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) where a warming of the equatorial Pacific has one effect whereas the cooling of the same oceanic waters (La Nina) has a widely different effect...globally! But there are several other drivers of the atmospheric engine known as the MJO, the EPO, and the WPO. Smitty...STOP...you're killing me with this "alphabet soup!" If that's what you're saying or thinking...then...skip to the song and the AA. But for those of you who are the least bit intrigued, humor me for a few maps and thoughts. By the way, Happy New Year y'all!
So...with all of that up top, the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is forecast to tank and thus, in my opinion, the temps will respond in kind by also tanking. Now, there is a bit of a lag, but the jet will react and thus cold will invade the lower 48. Here is the Euro ensemble mean (51 members averaged together) for the 5 day period ending next Saturday...brrr...
The control run off of which the ensembles are run is even more bullish on coast to coast cold! Take a look...both of these maps are for the 850 mb level or about 1 mile up. But Smitty, we don't live a mile above the surface! Agree, but using this level shows a "truer" movement of the air masses as the force of friction can mainly be disregarded.
Here is a map of the 5 day mean temps from the control for 5 days ending Jan 10; only FL sees any warmth. But that indicates a rather strong SE ridge to battle the cold! Again...brrr...
And with that cold in place, and the rather strong and persistent sub-tropical high over the Bahama-mamas, a battle will ensue and snow/ice is the likely outcome somewhere from Dallas (DFW) to New York (LGA). Here is the Euro's take...snowfall totals ending Jan 10...The "jackpot" spot on the NH-ME border is from a storm that will actually develop into quite a nor'easter for interior New England Thursday night into Friday.
There is still some uncertainty with that system, but in any event, thanks to the recent warmth in these parts, I do not believe there will be much to worry about in the KMDT area...snowfall totes by 2017!
Here is the uncertainty to which I alluded...51 different locations for the developing low pressure system...not a good synoptic set-up for a major snow event anyway in these parts...the high is too far east in the maritimes of O'Canada.
So far, this December has been just about 1ºF above normal so far in our region...
Compare the map above to the forecast from the Euro for the next 32 days! Quite similar...
In conclusion, winter will return in waves over the next couple of weeks. The risk is that with the teleconnections of the Pacific both aligning for cold air to move south, January might be colder than forecast above. But time will tell. The science of meteorology has always piqued my interest like no other...as many of you are fully aware. So, I'll leave y'all with this...
I do believe January will favor cold, but not as bad...I don't think...as January 2014. (Northeast USA was 25th coldest on record). OK...gotta run. Planning to have a nice visit with my son and his wife today as he's in from STL. Looking very much forward to it!
Happy New Year!
Smitty
AA: After the mild start today, a shot of cold Thursday-Saturday with a skiff of snow later Thursday. Heaviest to our NE in NE. Then yet another brief warm up for early next week, but then the bottom falls out and could be quite cold into the middle of January. There will be battle between cold and warm, so look for many small bouts of snow/ice in these parts. Waaaaay too early to see any major storms, but with the cold in place, it is most certainly possible.
As I sit here this winter solstice evening and opine about my thoughts on the upcoming couple of weeks worth of weather, I feel very confident that the KMDT will have a brown/blue/green Christmas as there will be both a lack of precip and moderating temps over the next 5 days. Take a look at the 850 mb temps for the next 5 days vs norms...cool west/warm east.
And in terms of where the snow cover currently is located...well...take a gander...as of this lovely winter solstice morn...(By the way, I hope y'all scoped not only the glorious sunrise, but also the awe inspiring sunset today!)
But much of this snowpack will retreat north as the above normal temps work their way east into our portion of the continent. Any and all ice/snow including piles will be bye-bye by Christmas Day post. So, with that said, I'll have a Blue Christmas or a Green Christmas in these parts. But for you lovers of winter, fret not as I believe the Arctic will once again unleash her wrath...but not until the latter parts of Jan into Feb...I do believe that even though we are in the throes of winter, the weather will be rather benign for the next 2-3 weeks...AT LEAST. This will encourage the AGW crowd...grrrr....Temps vs norms for week ending Jan 6...Keep the Heat at 60 Ronnie! Shorts and T-shirt wx!
So, I've had numerous people tell me that they actually like the tunes more than the wx info in these brief weather snippets that I so much enjoy to create...so I am leaving y'all with 2...first a Blue Christmas from one of my new favorite groups, The Lumineers...
Enjoy...
Then, another favorite of mine, River, sung and written by Joni Mitchell will describe my plight in her 8th line of lyric...listen closely and enjoy it as well...
With that little bit said about the weather, and much said about my love of song, I wish everyone who reads this a Merry "slightly above normal temps" Christmas and a Happy "waiting until mid month for serious cold and wintry weather" New Year!
Smitty
AA: Benign for the next 3-4 weeks. Let's put it this way, we should be in the parking lot everyday henceforth until the next arctic blast which may, at best, come around Jan 15 or so??? Merry Christmas my friend! Enjoy those 2nd Amendment kiddos!
