Drought Buster or Simply Drought Relief?

As most of you are aware, it's been a significantly drier than normal late summer period and coupled with the endless summer heat, most of PA has been identified by the USDA drought monitor as being abnormally dry...take a look.

Even the Susquehanna River is in in lowest 25 percentile of discharge for this time of year; a far cry from this time 41 years ago when many of you will remember Hurricane Eloise.  First, today's discharge as measured at City Island.  The brown triangles represent the median flow for each day the last month.  We are well below the norms...

And a brief reminder of aforementioned Hurricane Eloise...she rained herself out over the northern mid-Atlantic and we suffered here in south central PA.

So now we are faced with a blocked 500 mb upper level low that will slowly migrate over the lower Ohio Valley the next 4-5 days before slowly filling and lifting away.  With that said, rain of varying intensity will be in our area for the next several days...starting...well...now as I pound these keys.  So the next question is how much rain will fall.  I'll show you the total precip by Sunday first with the Euro...it is BY FAR the most bullish for rain amounts.  I can see it happening, but this amount is unlikely come Sunday (5+" for KMDT)

Next, the GFS (Global Forecast System from the USA)...a tad more reasonable.

And lastly, the very consistent NAM.  This model has been rock steady over the last several runs! It has been targeting the very western portion of the Susquehanna Valley and the Laurel Highlands with the axis of heaviest rain. Here is its latest...

Here's the official guidance from the NWS for precip total ending Saturday evening...that is quite wet to be sure!

And just to keep things interesting for next week, Matthew is brewing in the Caribbean and the GFS wants to keep us on our toes...gut feeling, this storm will end up further east than shown below...I hope!

OK...gotta run.  Enjoy this timely Eric Clapton tune...and root for the NAM!

Smitty

AA:  Rainy and quite wet next few days.  Be careful what you wish for!  By the way, a hurricane up the coast might be the only way to stop your BoSox this year!

Watch The North Wind Rise

If you think this last past week was a bit warm...well...YOU ARE CORRECT!  Check it out..

Average of the last 10 days...

Now, just the last week...

And how about just the last 3 days...wow!  It's been quite warm!  Actually, downright HOT!  Note the extreme right down the Susq. Valley!  Y'all know it's been quite warm...

So with all of that...I hope you enjoy this "Hot" tune from "Hot Tuna"...Watch the North Wind Rise...because eventually, simply due to seasonal change, the north wind will pay us a visit!  Enjoy!

I'm out...

Smitty

AA:  Looks to be warm for a bit longer; it's been quite unseasonable as you are quite aware.  I think you might like this tune...

A Taste Of Autumn...A Very Little Taste Of Autumn

Aaahhhh...autumn.  Mostly clear skies, drier air from the recent weeks of the "Dog Days of August" with high humidity, and the crack of pads or the ball and the bat.  Either way, these things make the return to the normalcy of everyday schooling a bit more acceptable, even welcoming.  Usually cooler temps greet us around Labor Day, but this year of endless summer has not been so kind.  Take a look at the temps to this point in September...remembering only 9 days in...The cooler temps relegated to the western US while the east basks in endless summer.  Note where the tropical system Hermine crossed FL and south GA to keep those temps cooler than the norms.

Take a look at July; note the eastern USA...

And then August...we here in the Harrisburg region are living the 2nd warmest summer since records (1888) have been officially maintained.  1966 was the hottest on record...it has been toasty!

And if you believe the CFSv2, this will continue for the next 10 days at least...

Oh...there will be cooler days, but few and far between.  Example; next Friday am snapshot.  Below is the coldest panel I could find for PA on the Euro for the next 15 days!  Endless summer!

Bottom line?  We've got a warm September coming as well.  Frankly, I don't see any real pattern change through the middle of October.  At least, the norms drop as the days shorten, but temps will still hold warmer than normal for the foreseeable future.  If you are a summer nut; ENJOY!  If you desire cooler temps...well...I feel your pain!  Endless summer! Just enjoy this throwback to the 80s...like me!

OK...not much else to say.  Warmer than normal for the bulk of days for the next 30 days.  Got it?  Good.  Endless summer...Let's hope the weather stays warm for when the Os host the World Series in late October!  Let's Go O's!

Great week's end everyone!

Smitty

AA:  Looks like warmer and drier than normal weather will prevail for the next 30+ days if I can read my magic 8 ball correctly!  Smitty:  "Will the next 30 days average above normal temps and below normal precip?"  Eight Ball:  :  "It is certain!"

What's Goin' On?

Not much!  This Saturday marks the climatological peak day of the likelihood of a named tropical system in the Atlantic basin and it looks awfully quiet for this time of year.

 Take a look...

Two "X" mark a possibility of less than 40% to become named....so again, I ask...what's goin' on?  Well, there is a front that will help alleviate the uncomfortable conditions of heat and humidity that should pass through our region later Saturday night.  It is marked by the cloud band extending from the desert SW and west TX towards NY and New England.  Note the big boomers along this boundary...but the upper air will gently nudge this front through these parts by waking on Sunday morn.

But again I ask, "What's Goin' On?"  Not much for this time of year.  After the frontal passage, more of what we've seen for the last several weeks (seemingly months); a return to heat.  Here is the Euro's take on temperature anomalies for week 2 upcoming (map valid for Tuesday Sept 20 pm)...Looks awfully warm for the east.

So...what's goin on?  Brother, Father, Mother, Sister?  Let's ask Marvin Gaye!

Because not so much is in terms of the sensible weather in these parts aside from persistent heat, moderate to high humidity, and frankly a lucky hit (or miss) shower and mostly dry conditions!  So enjoy this MoTown classic and enjoy the 2nd weekend of HS and NCAA football.

Smitty

AA:  Not much to opine about in terms of the weather.  No tropical concerns at this time; a hit or miss storm to help your mowing conditions...that's about it...warmer than normal for next couple of weeks it seems...but a handful of days will reminds us fall is coming.

Labor Day Lulu

I know it's been quite awhile since I last opined; however, I felt compelled to share what I believe could be a major Jersey and Delmarva disaster that many seemingly are not heeding, at least from my perceptions.  I will be brief in how most regional and global models depict the evolution of Hurricane Hermine.  (By the way, I googled the meaning of this name as I was unfamiliar and Hermine means either "to travel" or "soldier" based on gender...).  The potential disaster for the eastern shore is a prolonged fetch of moderate to strong winds that will pile water into the bays behind the barrier islands.  Couple this with several tidal cycles, and extensive coastal flooding looks to be a near certainty!  Let me show some graphics.

First, I will show y'all the Euro ensembles of the low position come early Labor Day.  Obviously with 51 runs, there will be variance.  However, at 66 hours, there is strong agreement as to the general proximity of the storm just off the Delmarva.

And here is the operational as to its location and strength at the time shown above...

Now some of you might be saying that the depiction above is not so close to the coast and the worst effects will be offshore.  That is indeed true for the precipitation; however, with the moderate/strong wind and the persistence of said wind, the waves will build and continually pound the coastline for several days.  Take a look at the location 24 hours prior...

And 24 hours after finally pulling away...a weary traveler at best...

All 3 graphics above indicate wind gusts to around 60-70, certainly under the criteria of a hurricane. And as a result, "merely" tropical storm warnings have been posted along the seaboard at our latitude. Another reason that many might be taking this "lightly"...again, my perception.  Perhaps, a more strongly worded statement from the authorities might make the public more aware as to the potentially disastrous flooding that may ensue.

I will show just one surf map, but trust me, for roughly 84 hours, the wind and the waves look similar to the map shown below...

The graphic below shows the exceedance of extreme water levels to the upside from coastal tidal flooding.  The spike above the red-line (1 in 100 year event) in 1962 was from a nor'easter in March of that year; a famous meteorological and historic storm.  The spike in 2012 is from Sandy in October nearly 4 years ago.  It will be interesting to see how this storm ends up relative to those two prior east coast events.  The current tidal forecast for this particular locale is to exceed the yellow but fall short of the red lines.

Below, I'm including the buoy observations showing this approaching system with rapidly increasing winds and falling pressures.  This buoy data is just offshore of VA Beach as of early Saturday morning...

By the way, once all of this excitement passes, back to summer in these parts later next week.  Here is the temperature anomalies for Thursday's maxes.  Those of you who enjoy 90+F weather, you've got a few more coming before this summer is out.

OK...I'm out, but will leave you with a classic.  I couldn't resist!  It's worth the 7 minutes in my humble opinion...

OK, off to watch to the world awaken and a beautiful sunrise with another cup of Joe and MCT oil for my creamer.  Enjoy your Labor Day weekend and hopefully the weather cooperates back here on the Piedmont unlike what may unfold on our neighbors down along the coastal plain and eastern shore.

Smitty

AA:  Tropical Storm Hermine may be one for the record books and talked about among east coasters for many years to come.  Breezy and coolish for us with minimal rain...if any...from the system.  90+F wx to return next week!  See you Tuesday...

Wx Not Fit For Golf (or Baseball Either)

After emptying my 1.04" of liquid sunshine from my rain gauge this afternoon (with a bit more heading my way), I decided to really peruse the modeling for this upcoming "no alibi" weekend
(U-G-L-Y).  Thanks to a very anomalous trough digging into the eastern US, cold arctic air will slide directly into the east all the way deep into the south on strong NNW winds.  Here are the progged morning lows for the 3rd Round at Augusta National...

The final round has a real chance to have morning lows sub-freezing...

This is an incredible trough for this time of year...sub 528dm heights here in south central PA!

The Euro suggests some frozen precip in these parts early Saturday...

The GFS even more bullish on the white stuff...

Either way, cold blustery wx will accompany the showery precip on Saturday.  And after what has been a rather dry March, much more precip looks to be coming our way in the next 10 days; here is the Euro's take...

And our GFS...

Basically, the Euro is a tad further south with the storm track than the GFS; however, both are quite wet for eastern PA in the next week to 10 days.  And cold!  Next 5 days as per the GFS...

Couple that with the last 5 days (removing April 1, last Friday which hit 80°F), this will be one of the coldest starts to April that I remember!

OK...off to watch the Astros take care of the Yankees...I hope anyway.  So far; so good.  But just not baseball weather.  I know, be careful what you wish for as the heat and humidity will be coming on strong sooner rather than later!  So I'll leave you with a Jackson Browne tune that is appropriately titled "Before The Deluge".  "Now let the music keep your spirits high" (since this cold spring wx will not)...Enjoy!

And enjoy this week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Another cold and wet 5 days plus coming our way.  Enough said!

Wx Not Cooperating With Opening Week of Baseball

Or the Masters Golf Tournament for that matter!  Look at these lows progged for Saturday am...there will likely be frost around the course!

And it was cold today under crystal clear skies, single digit dew points and blindingly bright sunshine...but this is all temps managed at the warmest time of day!

Up across NY and southern New England where the recent snows have fallen, temps really struggled under this arctic air mass!  Note the newly fallen snow from this past weekend.  The Finger Lakes are quite obvious!  The bright sun was unable to remove much of this snow cover by this afternoon.  Remember that the sun is now at a similar position in the sky as it would be around Labor Day!

Here are the 3 pm temps; 27°F at the Broome County airport is quite cold even for Binghamton, NY! Brrrrr...

The way this looks to play out through this upcoming weekend is very similar to what we just experienced.  Thursday should bring another band of light to moderate rain in these parts announcing another shot of arctic air for the weekend.  Here is the surface map as per the Euro for Thursday...

This will allow a digging trough in the mid levels to strengthen in these parts; this looks brutal for Saturday pm...

And Sunday's lows will be very cold; 15-20°F below the 30 year norms!  Air will be coming straight outta Hudson Bay!

The CFSv2 looks to keep April cool through most of April, but the cold will certainly relax...it has to...right???  Here are temps averaged days 10-20 into the future; trust me this is the warmest of the next "10 day chunks" of time...

OK...off to continue to watch the Royals v the NYMets.  Thor looks tough; 5Ks, 0BB through 3!  It was also lovely to watch the Yankees looooose; the...the...the...Yankees LOSE!  I can't say it like John Sterling...

I'll leave y'all with this Billy Joel song from COLD SPRING Harbor; I believe many of you will remember this one!

Remember the heat and humidity is just around the corner; it's just be a brief set back until we see that corner thanks to this cold April to date!  Enjoy your mid-week...

Smitty

AA:  Another repeat of what just occurred; rain then cold.  Weekend might just be ugly with very cold air aloft. Hey the mid-April sun helps if it shines like it is today!  Another cold walk in the am...