Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
Aaahhhh...autumn. Mostly clear skies, drier air from the recent weeks of the "Dog Days of August" with high humidity, and the crack of pads or the ball and the bat. Either way, these things make the return to the normalcy of everyday schooling a bit more acceptable, even welcoming. Usually cooler temps greet us around Labor Day, but this year of endless summer has not been so kind. Take a look at the temps to this point in September...remembering only 9 days in...The cooler temps relegated to the western US while the east basks in endless summer. Note where the tropical system Hermine crossed FL and south GA to keep those temps cooler than the norms.
Take a look at July; note the eastern USA...
And then August...we here in the Harrisburg region are living the 2nd warmest summer since records (1888) have been officially maintained. 1966 was the hottest on record...it has been toasty!
And if you believe the CFSv2, this will continue for the next 10 days at least...
Oh...there will be cooler days, but few and far between. Example; next Friday am snapshot. Below is the coldest panel I could find for PA on the Euro for the next 15 days! Endless summer!
Bottom line? We've got a warm September coming as well. Frankly, I don't see any real pattern change through the middle of October. At least, the norms drop as the days shorten, but temps will still hold warmer than normal for the foreseeable future. If you are a summer nut; ENJOY! If you desire cooler temps...well...I feel your pain! Endless summer! Just enjoy this throwback to the 80s...like me!
OK...not much else to say. Warmer than normal for the bulk of days for the next 30 days. Got it? Good. Endless summer...Let's hope the weather stays warm for when the Os host the World Series in late October! Let's Go O's!
Great week's end everyone!
Smitty
AA: Looks like warmer and drier than normal weather will prevail for the next 30+ days if I can read my magic 8 ball correctly! Smitty: "Will the next 30 days average above normal temps and below normal precip?" Eight Ball: : "It is certain!"
Not much! This Saturday marks the climatological peak day of the likelihood of a named tropical system in the Atlantic basin and it looks awfully quiet for this time of year.
Take a look...
Two "X" mark a possibility of less than 40% to become named....so again, I ask...what's goin' on? Well, there is a front that will help alleviate the uncomfortable conditions of heat and humidity that should pass through our region later Saturday night. It is marked by the cloud band extending from the desert SW and west TX towards NY and New England. Note the big boomers along this boundary...but the upper air will gently nudge this front through these parts by waking on Sunday morn.
But again I ask, "What's Goin' On?" Not much for this time of year. After the frontal passage, more of what we've seen for the last several weeks (seemingly months); a return to heat. Here is the Euro's take on temperature anomalies for week 2 upcoming (map valid for Tuesday Sept 20 pm)...Looks awfully warm for the east.
Because not so much is in terms of the sensible weather in these parts aside from persistent heat, moderate to high humidity, and frankly a lucky hit (or miss) shower and mostly dry conditions! So enjoy this MoTown classic and enjoy the 2nd weekend of HS and NCAA football.
Smitty
AA: Not much to opine about in terms of the weather. No tropical concerns at this time; a hit or miss storm to help your mowing conditions...that's about it...warmer than normal for next couple of weeks it seems...but a handful of days will reminds us fall is coming.
I know it's been quite awhile since I last opined; however, I felt compelled to share what I believe could be a major Jersey and Delmarva disaster that many seemingly are not heeding, at least from my perceptions. I will be brief in how most regional and global models depict the evolution of Hurricane Hermine. (By the way, I googled the meaning of this name as I was unfamiliar and Hermine means either "to travel" or "soldier" based on gender...). The potential disaster for the eastern shore is a prolonged fetch of moderate to strong winds that will pile water into the bays behind the barrier islands. Couple this with several tidal cycles, and extensive coastal flooding looks to be a near certainty! Let me show some graphics.
First, I will show y'all the Euro ensembles of the low position come early Labor Day. Obviously with 51 runs, there will be variance. However, at 66 hours, there is strong agreement as to the general proximity of the storm just off the Delmarva.
And here is the operational as to its location and strength at the time shown above...
Now some of you might be saying that the depiction above is not so close to the coast and the worst effects will be offshore. That is indeed true for the precipitation; however, with the moderate/strong wind and the persistence of said wind, the waves will build and continually pound the coastline for several days. Take a look at the location 24 hours prior...
And 24 hours after finally pulling away...a weary traveler at best...
All 3 graphics above indicate wind gusts to around 60-70, certainly under the criteria of a hurricane. And as a result, "merely" tropical storm warnings have been posted along the seaboard at our latitude. Another reason that many might be taking this "lightly"...again, my perception. Perhaps, a more strongly worded statement from the authorities might make the public more aware as to the potentially disastrous flooding that may ensue.
I will show just one surf map, but trust me, for roughly 84 hours, the wind and the waves look similar to the map shown below...
The graphic below shows the exceedance of extreme water levels to the upside from coastal tidal flooding. The spike above the red-line (1 in 100 year event) in 1962 was from a nor'easter in March of that year; a famous meteorological and historic storm. The spike in 2012 is from Sandy in October nearly 4 years ago. It will be interesting to see how this storm ends up relative to those two prior east coast events. The current tidal forecast for this particular locale is to exceed the yellow but fall short of the red lines.
Below, I'm including the buoy observations showing this approaching system with rapidly increasing winds and falling pressures. This buoy data is just offshore of VA Beach as of early Saturday morning...
By the way, once all of this excitement passes, back to summer in these parts later next week. Here is the temperature anomalies for Thursday's maxes. Those of you who enjoy 90+F weather, you've got a few more coming before this summer is out.
OK...I'm out, but will leave you with a classic. I couldn't resist! It's worth the 7 minutes in my humble opinion...
OK, off to watch to the world awaken and a beautiful sunrise with another cup of Joe and MCT oil for my creamer. Enjoy your Labor Day weekend and hopefully the weather cooperates back here on the Piedmont unlike what may unfold on our neighbors down along the coastal plain and eastern shore.
Smitty
AA: Tropical Storm Hermine may be one for the record books and talked about among east coasters for many years to come. Breezy and coolish for us with minimal rain...if any...from the system. 90+F wx to return next week! See you Tuesday...
After emptying my 1.04" of liquid sunshine from my rain gauge this afternoon (with a bit more heading my way), I decided to really peruse the modeling for this upcoming "no alibi" weekend
(U-G-L-Y). Thanks to a very anomalous trough digging into the eastern US, cold arctic air will slide directly into the east all the way deep into the south on strong NNW winds. Here are the progged morning lows for the 3rd Round at Augusta National...
The final round has a real chance to have morning lows sub-freezing...
This is an incredible trough for this time of year...sub 528dm heights here in south central PA!
The Euro suggests some frozen precip in these parts early Saturday...
The GFS even more bullish on the white stuff...
Either way, cold blustery wx will accompany the showery precip on Saturday. And after what has been a rather dry March, much more precip looks to be coming our way in the next 10 days; here is the Euro's take...
And our GFS...
Basically, the Euro is a tad further south with the storm track than the GFS; however, both are quite wet for eastern PA in the next week to 10 days. And cold! Next 5 days as per the GFS...
Couple that with the last 5 days (removing April 1, last Friday which hit 80°F), this will be one of the coldest starts to April that I remember!
OK...off to watch the Astros take care of the Yankees...I hope anyway. So far; so good. But just not baseball weather. I know, be careful what you wish for as the heat and humidity will be coming on strong sooner rather than later! So I'll leave you with a Jackson Browne tune that is appropriately titled "Before The Deluge". "Now let the music keep your spirits high" (since this cold spring wx will not)...Enjoy!
And enjoy this week's end!
Smitty
AA: Another cold and wet 5 days plus coming our way. Enough said!
Or the Masters Golf Tournament for that matter! Look at these lows progged for Saturday am...there will likely be frost around the course!
And it was cold today under crystal clear skies, single digit dew points and blindingly bright sunshine...but this is all temps managed at the warmest time of day!
Up across NY and southern New England where the recent snows have fallen, temps really struggled under this arctic air mass! Note the newly fallen snow from this past weekend. The Finger Lakes are quite obvious! The bright sun was unable to remove much of this snow cover by this afternoon. Remember that the sun is now at a similar position in the sky as it would be around Labor Day!
Here are the 3 pm temps; 27°F at the Broome County airport is quite cold even for Binghamton, NY! Brrrrr...
The way this looks to play out through this upcoming weekend is very similar to what we just experienced. Thursday should bring another band of light to moderate rain in these parts announcing another shot of arctic air for the weekend. Here is the surface map as per the Euro for Thursday...
This will allow a digging trough in the mid levels to strengthen in these parts; this looks brutal for Saturday pm...
And Sunday's lows will be very cold; 15-20°F below the 30 year norms! Air will be coming straight outta Hudson Bay!
The CFSv2 looks to keep April cool through most of April, but the cold will certainly relax...it has to...right??? Here are temps averaged days 10-20 into the future; trust me this is the warmest of the next "10 day chunks" of time...
OK...off to continue to watch the Royals v the NYMets. Thor looks tough; 5Ks, 0BB through 3! It was also lovely to watch the Yankees looooose; the...the...the...Yankees LOSE! I can't say it like John Sterling...
I'll leave y'all with this Billy Joel song from COLD SPRING Harbor; I believe many of you will remember this one!
Remember the heat and humidity is just around the corner; it's just be a brief set back until we see that corner thanks to this cold April to date! Enjoy your mid-week...
Smitty
AA: Another repeat of what just occurred; rain then cold. Weekend might just be ugly with very cold air aloft. Hey the mid-April sun helps if it shines like it is today! Another cold walk in the am...
Since I TOTALLY and COMPLETELY missed my last prognostication of a late winter/early spring snowfall, I am treading lightly going forward...NOT! The only satisfaction from the last blown forecast is a push with Mr. RSC...KMDT is still hanging tough with 37.9" snowfall for the year! I'd rather win or lose; not kiss my sister...no offense Nanc! We will still get together for a few quaffs and laughs Mr RSC! Who knows, there have been a few surprises in April in these parts, but I only see cold, not cold and stormy...?
But as for the title of this post, for those of you who venture out for Easter Sunday sunrise services...(1 minute prior to 7:00 am at KMDT this Easter Sunday am), skies should be clear, winds calm, a waning gibbous setting towards the WSW, and temps in the mid 30s. A dome of high pressure will be asserting its force over our region this glorious early spring weekend! Take a look...as per the Euro...
Sunrise mins will be in the lower 30s; here's the Euro's take on mins Sunday am...the global models tend to keep local minimums slightly warmer than what is observed...dress warmly in other words...ice likely on the bird baths...(I think you get the picture).
After Easter Sunday, a glorious day regardless of the wx, temps will be close to normal until they tank for a couple of days the first few days of April. The Euro has a deep trough and all of the teleconnections support this cold shot...but as it has been all winter, it will be short lived! That is ONE DEEP TROUGH coming through on April Fool's Day, but should lift out by the early part of the following week...
Many of you will like to see what the Climate Forecast System (v2) has for the month of April. Here is a culmination of the last 10 days' runs of the model in terms of temps for the CONUS...that is in spite a few quite cold days to start the month in these parts...
OK...off to paint Easter eggs...not! Actually, I like the chocolate that gets tossed about on Easter. For those of you who actually care, no less than 85% cacao for me; the darker the better. I've over the years acquired a taste for 100% raw cacao beans and cacao nibs. Very dark chocolate with some type of nut butter (I prefer almond or cashew or even sunflower; Kay loves peanut butter!) or a few nibs with the whole raw nuts works as well...but this cartoon always gets me this time of year.
OK...gotta go. I will leave you with this ditty...one of my favorites for this Holy Week. By the way, I watched The Passion of the Christ earlier this week on Netflix; that is one brutal film. Viewer Discretion advised...
Enjoy your Easter weekend!
Smitty
AA: Typical early spring weekend other than it is Easter! The 1st Sunday (the 27th) after the first full moon (the 23rd, tonight) after the Vernal Equinox (the 20th at 12:30 am, last Sunday). You have The First Council of Nicaea AD 325 as well as Pope Gregory the XIII to thank for all of that...
The title is in reference to an annual friendly wager (which by the way I lose EVERY year) concerning the yearlong snowfall total at KMDT. Well, I thought I was styling as December played out as I gave 35" as the over/under and my compadre choose the over...(I believe I told him El Nino winters are generally wet; just trying to attain some semblance of forecasting). Nada snow through the middle of January and I was feeling pretty good! Then...BAM...BLIZZARD of historical proportions. A year's worth of snow in one storm...unreal! In case your memory is REAL SHORT...a Category 4; Crippling Event! (all of the font enhancements for you Yokes!)
Personally, I believe we have "on tap" yet another snowstorm within a few days of St. Paddy's celebrations. I was with my siblings the other evening discussing the major snowfall in 1956 when my parents returned home from the week long stay in the hospital from the 2nd week of March birth of my elder twin bros! The stories were humorous; but I mentioned that 1956 was an analog year in terms of an El Nino year. Two years later; repeat! I believe there was also a major snowfall in 1967 which also was an El Nino year where it was crashing to a cooler Pacific. I would have to digress and research this, but I want to disseminate this info for my loyal minions so I can catch a few buckets this evening of this year's March Madness...By the way, here is the 1956 event; notable only Yokes...
If the Euro control run of the ensembles verifies, this will notable and then some!
If the Canuck verifies, this would be nasty...I believe this is just a tad too far west! I honestly believe I-81 to I-78 to southern New England will bear the brunt of this later winter/early spring storm.
And for a touch of true irony, the Vernal Equinox will occur Sunday at 12:30 am EDT when the vertical rays of the sun will strike earth's equator and continue northward! But come Monday morning at 12:30 am EDT, it sure won't look too spring-like outside; no way, no how... not at least if you believe the top 15 analogs from the 72 hour run of the GFS. Here is the mean snowfall accums from the top 15 analogs...
So RSC, ABC or LBC or FeHillBC? I'm kinda fond of 'em all! I'm sure you're real surprised...Al's or Fed Tap works too. And I did just mention irony (as I did last time too), so I will leave y'all with this Alanis Morissette 1995 ditty. I don't think she mentioned ..."It's like a foot of snow on the first day spring..." Enjoy!
And enjoy this first day of spring, March Madness, PIAA State BB Championships weekend!
Smitty
AA: Good day for a fantasy baseball draft; snowy outside, baseball fever inside!
