Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
Well, don't look now, but there WILL be yet another atmospheric opportunity to deliver some winter weary pain and suffering to those of us in south central PA later on Sunday. As I've mentioned to some of you in passing today, I feel that a few snowflakes might mix in the rainfall later on Sunday. As I am seeing things right now, if, AND THAT IS A BIG IF, everything would pull together, we could have one quick heavy wet snow dump Sunday afternoon/evening. It doesn't look too likely, but the potential most certainly exists!
I'll show some very quick maps from the GFS...whenever there is such a strong upper closed low in this position, and as we are still at a point when the upper air is still very cold, one must be wary.
First, 500 mb for Sunday morning...this is a perfect set-up for yet another east coast storm!
Here is the surface map for the same time...Sunday morning...there won't be Blue Skies although bells should be ringing everywhere...
Then the upper air 12 hours later Sunday evening...
And the surface reflection at the same time...this is the period where the snow could fall fast enough and heavy enough to cause accumulations in the LSV if all things worked together!
But don't worry, Opening Day in many venues should be just fine as evidenced by this 500 mb ridge over the Ohio Valley translating eastward..(as the ocean storm begins to fill!)...
And the surface for Monday afternoon...(snow still in central and northern New England!)...
There is ample fuel for this potential fire! Current radar snapshot...
Here is HPC's forecast for liquid sunshine through the weekend...ouch!
OK...gotta start my week's end. And I'm sure some of you have figured what I'm leaving you with from my reference above...enjoy!
And enjoy your Opening Day weekend...MLB style!
Smitty
AA: Rainy and raw weekend. Good to get the grass growing soon! Could snow Sunday in these parts! But don't worry, it'll clear out and be quite pleasant for the Os to take the Sox on Monday!
I mean just because KMDT isn't getting hammered with 6"-10" of wind-swept blinding snows, it IS still a major weather event for the eastern seaboard and all coastal and marine interests along the US and the Canadian maritimes. As I sit here and pound the keys, the visibility out my window varies from 0.5-1.0 miles in light snow. The temp is a balmy 29°F and the air is simply raw...or more objectively, ~25°F below the 30 year average! Even if you don't like the weather, I think most would agree that you can be impressed with the meteorology! Take a look from top-side!
Our snow that is falling is from the height falls from the upper level 500 mb low digging SE into the fuel AKA water vapor that is simply just a smidgen too far east to create greater snowfalls here in the northern mid-Atlantic. You can clearly see on the above satellite pic the beginning of storm formation, or cyclogenesis and the baroclinic leaf directly over KMDT! 24 hrs from now, this will be one deep nor'easter 200 miles east of Bean-Town! Here is the 500 mb initialization showing where on the "business side" (east) of the trough, the greatest ascending air is occurring. That's a nice tight little vort max over western KT...I wonder if the Hilltoppers know what that even is! But they sure know BB!
Anyway...take a look at how this 500 mb is progged to evolve by tomorrow morning at sunrise! That is a closed 500 mb low with a negatively tilted trough that will create the monster storm in the north Atlantic! Again, the meteorology is awesome!
And the surface map will look like this in terms of air pressure and wind speeds just above the ground level...pretty intense, but its just getting going!
Here is an animation of how this monster will evolve in terms of surface pressure and low level winds...
For us, cold and wind! Oh, we'll see some snow until midnight, but the action is clearly along the New England coast, Cape Cod (they'll be some more wooden bats available once this blows through!), and the O Canadian maritimes! Blizzard warnings for coastal sections, high wind warnings for the interior sections, and Gale & Storm Warnings, along with Hurricane Force Storm Warnings for the mariners. Take a look at the Christmas Tree like coloration of the warning map for the northeast! By the way, that is an extensive area of freeze warnings across Dixie! Again, isn't the energy of the atmosphere impressive!
Now the good news...many times it takes a major...and I do mean major atmospheric disturbance to rearrange the upper levels and adjust the pattern so that the energy becomes more evenly distributed into different regions of the globe. Contrary to the GW experts like Al Gore, the energy balance for the planet is a zero-sum game in the long run and this pattern shift is likely to help us enjoy some more seasonal temps and possibly even a more spring-like pattern over the next week once this cold lifts out. Below, the Euro ensembles indicate a slightly above normal 850 mb temp which would lead to normal to slightly above normal temps over the weekend into next week. The GFS is not nearly as warm, but it's some hope. Both however, show a cooling trend back towards the middle of April...time will tell.
But March has been cold as the graphic below will attest...remember...basically double the anomaly since it is in °C...man, its been a cold March!
OK...I've tried to sell y'all how impressive this storm truly is. But it is the way of our atmosphere; has been...and always will be. Especially at this time of year when the arctic wants to still flex its muscle and the tropics want to root on the start of MLB! So just to get everybody into a little springtime mode and to forget about the next 2 mornings of what will once again be brutal chill at sunrise as the cold gets whipped in on the backside of this powerful nor'easter, listen and enjoy this "springtime" ditty! (They might need some water soon...different post for a different day...but look at the map above...HINT!)
OK...gotta run! I have 2 Four-legged ones reminding me its Din-Din time! Their circadian rhythms seem to working just fine thank you...
Enjoy your mid-week and appreciate the meteorology...please!
Smitty
AA: A very powerful nor'easter to blow up off the coast of New England. Windy and cold wx will be the biggest impact here. Then a moderating trend into the middle of next week. Nothing crazy warm, but slightly above the seasonal norms. I'll take anything to have my furnace rest...but those who know me say it's been resting all winter!
It was remarkable this morning how close we came to yet another plowable snowfall here in southern PA. In fact, even here at my humble abode, a half inch of winter reminder greeted us upon awakening. But just a short drive down I-83, a nuisance snowfall quickly evolved into a disruptive winter event. Take a look at this map...a moderate to heavy snow for the greater Baltimore-Washington area! BWI clocked in at 7.9" officially; Reagan at 8.0" at last measure. Currently, the temp has yet to achieve the freezing mark today at DCA where normally 60ºF is often reached at this time of year!
And please don't shoot the messenger, but winter is far from over! Not by a long-shot! After a brief "warm-up" later this week...enjoy Thursday, Friday, & Saturday...it looks as if not just one, but two arctic air masses have their sights set on the Great Lakes and Northeast over the next couple of weeks. Here are the warmest temps I could find over the next 10 days as per the Euro...
But by early next week, an anomalously cold air mass will be invading the US from our neighbors to the north...the map below in in degrees C...so basically you can double the scale to get to degrees F...it looks to be about -20ºF from norms! Map is progged for Sunday afternoon/evening.
Then a reinforcing shot of genuinely gelid air (-20ºC at 850 mb would make January proud!) will be making inroads for the end of next week.
Just to make things a tad interesting, a strengthening Manitoba Mauler could lay down a carpet of white for the diving arctic air to reinforce what comes through on Monday! Note the 1030 mb high pressure back over the northern plains.
So today is cold...look at the forecast departures from normal max temps. Trust me...the actuals are even colder than the forecast temps due to the extensive snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic states!
And next week will be even colder than this week! Unreal. This is a FIVE DAY mean for next week, again in degrees C! If this verifies, it would be comparable to a "normal" week in the middle of January!
And what is very interesting are the super ensembles and the analogs of a couple of monster spring blizzards...just sayin'! Most of you will remember the 2nd listed analog date...the "Superstorm Blizzard of 1993"! I'm not thinking most of you remember the April blizzard in 1982...the 6th analog! Could be interesting...
Here are the maps from April 1982 event! A classic digging and strengthening 500 mb trough bore an April storm for the books!
OK...I've been wordy enough. It simply looks like although the sun will gain positive declination on the celestial sphere as of 1657 Z Time Thursday March 20, the atmosphere in these parts will be slow to recognize the Vernal Equinox. But I doubt if many of you will be slow to recognize this ditty made famous from the movie The Departed...an appropriate tune for today's celebrations for those of you who plan to do so. Also appropriate as our wx will be more like that of New England's over the next couple of weeks.
Smitty
AA: March has been cold, will briefly thaw this week, but then the cold to reload for the last week of the month and possibly beyond...not yet done with snow either....
I believe it is now becoming painfully obvious that this merry month of March will be anything but for those of you who are winter weary! While sitting here and watching a spring training MLB game with one eye, I have the other on the global numerical guidance suggesting that March will remain rather cold and stormy at least through the 3rd week. In fact, even the GW agenda driven NOAA suggests the same. Take a look at the 6-10 day...
And the 8-14 day prog...
And when I was looking at next week's upper air flow, it is rather ominous looking for those who are truly winter weary. That is a very deep trough for this time of year as depicted by the GFS ensembles!
In fact, I looked at the super-ensemble site from the Climate Prediction Center, and the Day 8 analogs have some rather snowy dates showing up. In addition, the Euro has been hinting at a strengthening cyclone moving from the southern plains up the spine of the Appalachians and spinning up another powerful gale center right along the coast all the while a major arctic high is building over southern O Canada. A classic springtime set-up for major snows in the northeastern US! Here is the low centered over WVA and transferring its energy for another storm off the VA Capes.
The anomalous pressures and height fields are shown here...that closed low at the 500 mb level spells trouble in these parts to be sure.
Now let's remember that the last time both the GFS and the Euro had a major hit on our area from 5 days out or so, not much materialized. However, this is different inasmuch as this is more of an upper air buckling of the jet stream into the east as opposed to a trans-continental bowling ball of a low pressure system simply rolling across the natural baroclinicity of the latitudinal temperature differences of last week...with the colder air overpowering the warmer and more humid air to the south. And as is so often the case, the numerical guidance often underdoes the arctic highs and their cold, dry dense air. So next week bears watching...to be sure! I mean watch how the Euro ENSEMBLES (numerous model "tweaks") phase the Sub-tropical and the polar jet disturbances. Here is next Tuesday...
And the 2 areas of lower heights (blue dips) join together over the eastern US!
The 2 blue dips merged together to make an "ugly" green and the damage has been done! And you want U-G-L-Y, look at this guidance from the Euro for the 4th Sunday of March! Unreal! This wx for the east will be true "March-Madness" if these models verify!
So, don't shoot the messenger. I'm just telling you like it is. And if you are a winter weary weather weenie, be happy that we dodged a bullet this past Sunday and again this Friday! One has to be a bit on guard when you see a surface synoptic set-up like this. But all of the numerical guidance swings this deepening cyclone out into the shipping lanes of the central Atlantic safely away from the Delmarva coast and leaving PA essentially unaffected in terms of any noticeable sensible weather changes.
OK...enough said for now. But seeing that today is Ash Wednesday and yesterday was Shrove Tuesday or Mardi Gras, many had the Crescent City in their minds. Well, here is one of the best "Big Easy" crooners accompanied with some heavy hitters of rock. I'm just telling you like it is...March will continue to hold the cold for several weeks yet to come. But this recording should warm the deepest cockles of anyone's frozen parts from this unending winter of 2013-14! Enjoy!
See...wasn't that outstanding? Goosebumps...and not from the cold!
Smitty
AA: March 9 is just a few days hence. Been listening to MLB on XM during my commute quite a bit lately as I need all the inside info I can get! They are also talking about how nice the wx is in both FL and AZ!
Well, not really dry, but the major snow event that looked like a lock from mid-week on last week will now struggle to accumulate 4" or so +/- in KMDT. It certainly now appears that the heaviest snowfall will occur somewhere (as it has occurred all season) nearer the Mason-Dixon Line. I had a discussion last week with a few interested parties that the concern of mixing will be an issue. Only at the onset, if much at all as the numerical guidance often under plays the strength of the cold, dense, dry air. Well, this is some SERIOUS cold air for this time of year as evidenced by the strength of the high pressure currently residing over the Dakotas and ridging back up into Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta. The leading edge of the cold, dense, dry air is now entering NW PA as I pound this old Dell keyboard...
Look at the current temps...that is some serious cold back up in MN and southern Canada. That air is what will create the overrunning boundary for the precip from the area of weak low pressure on a deep SSW flow. Just where that boundary sets up IS the million $$ question!
Although I personally believe it to be a bit further north than shown, this High-Resolution NAM graphic nicely shows the deep plume of moisture advecting straight from the warm Gulf of Mexico and heading towards the Mid-Atlantic states. As indicated, the higher pressures to the north keep PA in the drier air and thus will tend to limit the precip during Sunday night and Monday. But, as you can see, even a small jog to the north would greatly alter the forecast significantly.
The Euro and the Canadian have held their progs the best over the last several runs. Frankly, the American suite of modeling has been absolutely pathetic with their consistency. I admire computer modelers and their skill in writing programs that are able to simulate what the atmosphere or how any other fluid and dynamic event might result based on a specific set of algorithmic outputs. A talented pool of people to be sure! But, there has to be some serious studies as to how the modeling can be so inconsistent as a major wx event is within the "near-term" range. With all of that said, here is the Euro's overnight run for snowfall potential...
Again, a southern tier major hit! Does this warning map from the NWS look familiar? Persistence is a forecast skill that could have been used quite effectively this winter. It simply is the idea that it's cold where it wants to be cold; it snows where it wants to snow, it's "droughty" where it wants to be "droughty"...you get the idea!
Now a little meteorology lesson. Look at the 700 mb (2 miles up) winds for early Monday. The best divergent flow is over MD and northern VA. This will allow for better uplift and greater precip rates (red circle) as opposed to where the flow is more convergent (yellow circle) creating air to have a net downward movement and ultimately suppressing precip. Just exactly where this type of upper air dynamics set up WILL have a major effect as well as to the exact location of the true arctic boundary. Also, the greater the wind speed, the stronger the upward motion. The best 700 mb jet is clearly to the south of PA! This is a very tricky call...
Note how the 700 mb jet best depicts the forecast of most precipitation from HPC...
But cold will rule this first week of March; of that I am quite certain. Look at that monster high keeping the Arctic locked in over the northeast this week! It's been quite a cold winter! With any appreciable snowfall, Wednesday morning will be absolutely frigid! I'm expecting that 2 record low temps will go by the wayside this week at KMDT.
Ok...enough said other than I am truly humbled by the fact that many of you truly do read these posts and put some faith into my interpretations of all of this wonderful stuff we call the world of weather. And I do apologize that I was not able to address the changing forecasts yesterday (Saturday) as our family was celebrating a milestone birth of my wonder sister; the Smith Family "matriarch of sorts" with the passing of my mother now over a decade ago. And what a wonderful way to spend the bulk of my Saturday! I am truly blessed to have such a great group of human beings to call my family. This is an astounding testament to my 2 wonderful parents who raised 5 of us in a manner consistent with love and discipline. The values and ethics Mom and Dad instilled in us 5 is clearly being passed down through the extended families. Admittedly, it was refreshing to see! I hope I am not offending any of you reading this, but I am truly proud of our extended family. I jokingly commented to several of my relatives yesterday that the next time we all gather, we will have to have a program listing of all the cousins, 2nd cousins, grand-kids, etc running amok since we just frankly don't gather often enough. It was a great celebration of family!
With that said, and many of my family members being Pirate fans, I'll sign off with this classic hit from the Sister Sledge from 1979. (Touch of Irony...Sister Sledge is from Philadelphia, PA!) Enjoy the "disco" and baseball flashback!
Smitty
AA: A moderate snowfall is in store for KMDT Sunday night into Monday. Looking at 4" or so officially at KMDT. I will have closer to 6-7" since I am not trying to suppress snowfall totals as I have no Global Warming agenda. Northern MD looks to potentially get a foot or so! But a VERY COLD week ahead. One week buddy!
Much like PSU will once again eventually roar similar to their prime time years of the 80s and early 90s! Although this upcoming 7-10 days of wx might be more fierce than the salt and pepper D line of Bruce Clark and Matt Millen or the bone crunching hits from LB Shane Conlin and safety Ray Isom, these teams were hard hitting just like this upcoming front 10 days of March will be. For those of you old enough to remember those teams...well...here's a flashback from the Tuscaloosa Times.
Now I had to laugh when I saw this info graphic from the Duluth NWS this afternoon...it kinda looks like that one piece of ice is saluting the Arctic! The other thought I had was...No $#!t...
Well, it is no surprise that this winter has been cold. Look at the temps over the winter month across the CONUS for the months of Dec, Jan, and Feb to date! Quite a cold winter in MOST of the US to be sure! (-1.5ºC and falling with 2 more days to be calculated into this graphic!)
And the next 5 days will be more of the same!
In fact, as I pound the keys at this time, some squalls are being ushered in with gusty NW winds straight from the land of Nunavut! The very short range model saw these squalls and depicted them nearly as they are now presently occurring!
In fact, even the global modeling (GFS) is suggesting a potential for record cold not only tomorrow am...(Gray area is sub-zero)
It is also hinting at record cold again later next week as well! The record tomorrow morning will be tough as the record stands from 1934 of -1ºF. The Global Warming agenda driven governmental agency (aka NOAA) will do everything in its power to protect that record low tomorrow morning at KMDT! But the map below is also suggesting that another refreshed deep snow pack will enable record lows to be achieved as the records are much more attainable as they are basically in the mid single digits!
By the way, all of next week will be cold if the GFS is correct. Again, you can see the model sniffing out the snow pack that is likely to be in place over most of the state and into the New England states! Doesn't it look nice for spring training games next week down in the sunshine state?
But cold is one thing, but I know why y'all clicked on this...how much...how much? Of course, it is too far away to say with complete certainty, but it sure looks like this will be a MAJOR DISRUPTIVE storm for many locations across the OH Valley into the the northeast. The axis of heaviest snow has been consistently placed right across the KMDT area over the last several days (multiple model runs) which leads to a relatively higher than normal confidence forecast at this time frame. Here's the GFS ending Tuesday morning...
The Euro is even more generous with its output of winter's white!
Please keep in mind that these graphics are derived by calculating a 10:1 ratio of snow to liquid. The potential exists that the ratios will be higher than that, meaning an inch of rain would accumulate to ~14-16" of snow assuming the true arctic air holds it ground. Bottom line; National Military Day will undoubtedly greet PA with an arctic boundary fighting fiercely against an overrunning warmer and more humid regime creating quite the winter weather ruckus in these parts! (National Military Day?...March 4th).
OK...gotta go. I'll leave y'all with a rather catchy tune from Dire Straits entitled...of course...Lions! Enjoy!
I'll try to update over the weekend at some point...but most importantly; enjoy your Friday and even more so your week's end!
Smitty
AA: Cold and getting colder Friday! Slight moderation until winter roars back next week. Record low temps on a couple of occasions? MAJOR winter storm early next week. Big time draft next Sunday evening! (with another nor'easter?...the potential exists!...different story for a different day...)
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