March Marching To A Winter's Beat

I believe it is now becoming painfully obvious that this merry month of March will be anything but for those of you who are winter weary!  While sitting here and watching a spring training MLB game with one eye, I have the other on the global numerical guidance suggesting that March will remain rather cold and stormy at least through the 3rd week.  In fact, even the GW agenda driven NOAA suggests the same.  Take a look at the 6-10 day...

And the 8-14 day prog...

And when I was looking at next week's upper air flow, it is rather ominous looking for those who are truly winter weary.  That is a very deep trough for this time of year as depicted by the GFS ensembles!

In fact, I looked at the super-ensemble site from the Climate Prediction Center, and the Day 8 analogs have some rather snowy dates showing up.  In addition, the Euro has been hinting at a strengthening cyclone moving from the southern plains up the spine of the Appalachians and spinning up another powerful gale center right along the coast all the while a major arctic high is building over southern O Canada.  A classic springtime set-up for major snows in the northeastern US!  Here is the low centered over WVA and transferring its energy for another storm off the VA Capes.

The anomalous pressures and height fields are shown here...that closed low at the 500 mb level spells trouble in these parts to be sure.

Now let's remember that the last time both the GFS and the Euro had a major hit on our area from 5 days out or so, not much materialized.  However, this is different inasmuch as this is more of an upper air buckling of the jet stream into the east as opposed to a trans-continental bowling ball of a low pressure system simply rolling across the natural baroclinicity of the latitudinal temperature differences of last week...with the colder air overpowering the warmer and more humid air to the south.  And as is so often the case, the numerical guidance often underdoes the arctic highs and their cold, dry dense air.  So next week bears watching...to be sure!  I mean watch how the Euro ENSEMBLES (numerous model "tweaks") phase the Sub-tropical and the polar jet disturbances.  Here is next Tuesday...

And the 2 areas of lower heights (blue dips) join together over the eastern US!

The 2 blue dips merged together to make an "ugly" green and the damage has been done!  And you want U-G-L-Y, look at this guidance from the Euro for the 4th Sunday of March!  Unreal!  This wx for the east will be true "March-Madness" if these models verify!

So, don't shoot the messenger.  I'm just telling you like it is.  And if you are a winter weary weather weenie, be happy that we dodged a bullet this past Sunday and again this Friday!  One has to be a bit on guard when you see a surface synoptic set-up like this.  But all of the numerical guidance swings this deepening cyclone out into the shipping lanes of the central Atlantic safely away from the Delmarva coast and leaving PA essentially unaffected in terms of any noticeable sensible weather changes.

OK...enough said for now.  But seeing that today is Ash Wednesday and yesterday was Shrove Tuesday or Mardi Gras, many had the Crescent City in their minds.  Well, here is one of the best "Big Easy" crooners accompanied with some heavy hitters of rock.  I'm just telling you like it is...March will continue to hold the cold for several weeks yet to come.  But this recording should warm the deepest cockles of anyone's frozen parts from this unending winter of 2013-14!  Enjoy!

See...wasn't that outstanding?  Goosebumps...and not from the cold!

Smitty

AA:  March 9 is just a few days hence.  Been listening to MLB on XM during my commute quite a bit lately as I need all the inside info I can get!  They are also talking about how nice the wx is in both FL and AZ!