Groundhogs Galore

Well, February 2 is here and this marks celebrations all across Dutch settled regions of Marmota monax, commonly referred to as the groundhog.  Whether it's the prognostication from the gold standard Punxsutawney Phil or the lesser knowns of Octoraro Orphie and the very little know Etters Eddie, on this cross-quarter day astronomically, people will want to know if these mammals have seen their shadows.  And though long range weather forecasting can be a challenge, Phil doesn't do a bad job!  He certainly does have a bias towards more winter...and rightly so as we still have February and early March to get through.  Heck, last year we here in PA experienced winter type weather right into April!  Here is a graphic showing Phil's predictions since 1887...

Phil did see his shadow last year and was correct with his call.  Try to recall the FOUR nor'easters of last March!  The other notable "bingo-front row" forecasts of recent times were 2014 and 2010 where February in these parts were quite snowy!  Below is a time-lapse of last year's barrage of storms to hit the eastern US...it's worth the 50 seconds...

So with the recent snow and cold entrenched in our memories, will Phil call for more winter?  Or will he check out the numerical guidance that suggests winter is over, at least for this upcoming week?  If he looks at the Euro's guidance for the 1st week of February, this is what he will see...

But that 2nd week of February is indicating a classic battleground setting up in the eastern US which could create another cold and stormy pattern in these parts.  Look at the warmth across the SE US compared to the strengthening cold across the rest of the continent.  Usually, the cold wins these battles at this time of year.

And simply for kicks and giggles, here is the Euro's guidance for both temperatures and snowfall into the middle of March.  If Phil sees this, he'll quickly see his shadow and regroup in his burrow for another 6 weeks!  First the temps...the entire US below norms with the lone exception of Florida!  That's suggesting winter is taking a brief respite this week before reloading...

...and this graphic below suggests a stormy time of it here in the eastern US.  February is often a snowy time in these parts...and this numerical model guidance is indicating snow all the way to the Gulf coast in TX and LA!  Heck, if that is even remotely close to being modeled accurately, Phil will have a difficult task clearing snow from his home in Punxsutawney! 

As for today's astronomical celebration, the sun has progressed to about its 1/2 way point from the noon sun angle being over the Tropic of Capricorn to the noon sun angle being over the equator!  Our 9 hours of daylight have lengthened into about 10.5 hours and soon on the Vernal Equinox, our noon time sun angle will be a much warmer 50º as opposed to a very ineffective and dark 26º.  So that is indeed something to celebrate!

Enjoy this Groundhog Day blues tune from Johnny Lang and Double Trouble! 

Happy Groundhogs' Day!

Smitty

AA:  After winter loosens its grip this upcoming week, it appears that we are back to a cold and stormy pattern to close out winter...at least that what the numerical models are indicating.