Looming March Meteorological Monster?

Say it ain't so...oh no, Mr Smith!  Well, don't shoot the messenger, but the global modeling has been hinting at this for quite sometime and I simply wanted to bask in the record breaking warmth of this past week.  (Wednesday's 79°F was the all-time February max since official records began in 1888 at KMDT!) As so eloquently sung by Lindsey Buckingham and Christine McVie "...Yesterday's Gone..." and "...Don't you look back...", I must now begin to "think about tomorrow".  And as we all know, March can always have a few tricks up her sleeve and this year looks to be no exception.  Humor me for a brief post...

First the negative NAO blocking signal as shown by the Euro...this is a major block where shenanigans run rampant underneath.  That is a huge anomalous block over Greenland with a closed low strengthening over PA.  Now this is 7-8 days hence, but certainly does bear watching...

And the GFS shows a reasonable depiction of the surface chaos...

I always like to see what the analog package offers to get a sense of how the atmosphere might like to resolve itself with such anomalies using the CPC's super-ensemble analogs.  I perused the the top 2 hits and they are somewhat amazing!  Some of you will likely remember the Ash Wednesday storm of 1962!  It must have been a doozy as I remember reading an article published by the USGS on this storm a few years back stating it was up to that point, the most damaging coastal event to the eastern US ever!  That's saying something considering the major hurricanes that ravaged the east coast in the 30s and the 50s!

And this graphic remembering the Ash Wednesday storm looks similar to what both the GFS and the Euro seem to think might evolve...

And the 1958 analog though not the exact same week, a very similar pattern. A Cat 2 NESIS storm...

You see, Greenland blocks are very tricky, but they do tend to generate powerful and slow moving nor'easters.  With the upper air synoptics in place coupled with relatively warm water off the east coast and an increasing sun angle, the necessary energy requirements, the players are indeed on the field for a March meteo monster!  Here is an historical graphic depicting the surface low evolution of the 1962 storm that crushed the mid-Atlantic with heavy wet snows with the Shenandoah Valley being hardest hit.  I hesitate to post this...but I will.  Here is the somewhat consistent Euro for the past 3 runs now...this would be rather intriguing!

OK...off to watch the rain, low clouds, drizzle, fog, rising creeks...etc.  You get the point.  For my buddy Noah below...the Swatty should be well-behaved this weekend and start to recede by late Sunday evening...

I did have a couple of musical references, but this is the one I'll leave y'all with a slice of Americana...enjoy!  And enjoy your week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Rainy weekend; no $%!T Sherlock...right?  Watching the first week of March...winter just might make a rockin' return!