A Changing Pattern?

As most of you are quite aware, we've experienced quite a stretch of mild weather in this rapidly passing fall season.  With only a few days remaining in November, take a look at our departure from norms for the month to date...note how Hurricane Matthew which stirred up the Atlantic and created the wet ground along the SE coast kept temps slightly below norms while the rest of the continent baked!

But having the luxury the past couple of days of studying the atmospheric numerical models as opposed to studying learning styles (and being in contact with a very close associate Etters Eddie, pic below), I believe a pattern change is evolving for the upcoming winter season.

The front that blasted through last week and the subsequent cold that followed is just a fore-bearer of things to come.  This week, after some much needed rainfall, the upper air troughs will keep getting larger and deeper across the continental US.  By Thursday, we should have a nice amount of accumulated precip...take a look...

But for those wanting snow, there is simply no arctic air to be found in this part of the continent until next weekend.  However, if you believe the recent swings in the climate modeling, December looks to turn cold...

That's quite a cold monthly forecast above!  And here is the Euro's 51 ensembles temperature forecast for KMDT; note how the mean is below freezing for many of the upcoming days after this last spike of relative warmth...

And for my New England re-locator...the snowfall forecast for a town that is close to you...looks like some nice Christmas ski time...!

Remember, in these parts, we only have roughly a 1 in 4 shot of having an inch of snow covering Terra Mater for December 25...but the north country, well...that's a different story!

And for what it's worth, Hurricane Otto just pummeled Costa Rica and Nicaragua...

The last time we had a hurricane hit Central America this late in the year was Martha in 1969...and here was that December's temps...just another data input for gaining any type of insight...

And speaking of the north country...I'll leave y'all with this classic from Johnny and Bob...enjoy!

By the way. for those of you deer hunters who read this, I prefer my deer bologna with no sugar added, but any and all cheese is mighty fine!  Thank you!

Smitty

AA:  A mild end to November with a nice soaking rain event, but then a change to a much colder December I do believe...?