The National Hurricane Center with their 5 pm update seems to take the middle ground between the global models of the 12Z GFS/GEM/JMA/UKMET and the 12Z Euro. But the strange thing is the "official" track that is shown below is nowhere near the global models' operational runs. The Hurricane Center is essentially splitting the difference between the "lone wolf" Euro and the remaining global model suites. The forecasters at the Hurricane Center are hedging with their discussion stating that "confidence is low"; however, this split track solution seems to be the least likely solution at this point to me. Either a landfall into the Carolinas/southern VA or an out to sea track are the 2 likeliest solutions...IMO. Whether the hurricane does impact the coast or not, coastal flooding will be of major concerns as a strong easterly fetch will be prevalent throughout the weekend. Heavy rains should also be experienced in these parts...
Take a look at the NHC cone of uncertainty...
And take a look at the spread of solutions...
If it weren't the superior Euro taking this storm out to sea, I'd be more confident of a landfalling storm, but the Euro has a history of doing very well with very challenging patterns and this is certainly one of them. From a personal standpoint, I truly hope the Euro is correct!
And hope the GFS is not...
Truth be told, the overnight run of the Euro will either help increase the confidence of a potentially dangerous and devastating landfalling solution or lead to even more bewilderment of this impending stormy weekend.
Stay tuned...
Smitty
AA: One of the toughest forecasts I've seen in a long time! Here is the easy part; a wet weekend is on tap...but then again isn't that statement redundant?
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