Jersey, We Have A Problem

That is if you believe the global modeling for next week!  But first, how about that frozen precip this morning.  I was over in Mechanicsburg early this am and it was coming down for a brief period; heavy wet snow and sleet!  Many of the cars in the parking lot had evidence of a brief "downpour" of frozen glop from the passage of the cold front.  The satellite pic below shows the front well offshore and the SE quadrant of PA under bright sunshine while the bulk of PA is under the StratoCu that so often accompanies the cold air aloft at this time of year...

And here are the 24 hour temp changes from yesterday afternoon!  Nearly a 30F temp drop is impressive...don't cha think?

And high pressure will be large and in-charge for the remainder of the work week.  Here is the Euro's take on the surface pressures for Saturday morning!

However, the wx begins to deteriorate as we progress through the weekend and into Thanksgiving week.  Here is the Euro's solution for next Tuesday!  Wow...yet another storm along the east coast!  Again, this scenario does not bode well for the east coast beaches from the Delmarva northward.  Literally, no rest for the weary!  This is some strong winds that would be slamming big water into the unprotected beaches...not a pretty sight!

Then...2 days later...the storm blasts down east ME with big surf, heavy coastal rains and season starting snow pack interior snows!  They would most certainly be using sled dogs to get to Gram-ma's house this Thanksgiving!

However, there is not consensus in the world of numerical global modeling!  The GFS shows a much weaker solution waaay out to sea!  The map below is for the time between the 2 Euro maps above.  Large high pressure over the maritimes doesn't really suggest a storm heading out to sea.  Again, I believe the Euro will win this debate and ultimately we will see yet another large nor'easter at some point during the Thanksgiving week!

Take a look at the blocking that is being suggested by the Euro.  What that entails is high pressure aloft over the N. Atlantic which funnels cold air and into the eastern part of N. America along with a storm track that tends to move slowly up the coast.  These anomalies are quite large and suggest the east coast must be monitored for yet another major coastal system!  Huge trough in the east; large ridge in the west; and in the upper right corner, large ridge or "blocking"...something the Eagles offensive line should look into!

And a slightly wider view of the 500 mb pattern that suggests the interesting blocking pattern...

The GFS doesn't really have much of a system near the coast because its energy is all out of whack!  Look at how disjointed this 500 mb vorticity looks.  However, I do point out (orange arrow) this little feisty looking vort max that should be monitored for a surface system to spin up as a result of this energy.  We will see what we will see...

OK...I've rambled enough!  Even though not a huge fan, does anyone else miss the NHL?  I kinda like sifting through the stations and stopping and watching a period of NHL in lieu of just about anything else the tele has to offer!  I know it is football season and Thanksgiving and football go together like cranberry sauce and turkey, but just sayin'...I like the NHL and do miss it to a slight extent!  Let's put it this way, I wouldn't mind at all if the NBA was locked out as opposed to the NHL!  Winter means ice, snow and cold!  By the way, here is a north polar view of the current snow and ice cover over the northern hemisphere!  Note the recent snow cover from the blizzard that just pummeled the northern plains of MT and ND!  And note the extensive snow cover over Asia and northern China!  It's all about global warming as y'all know!  Also note how the Gulf Stream keeps port Murmansk open in Russia!  (See post here.)

OK...definitely going to go now.  After all, its almost dinner and I need something other than the deluxe Carrot Cake I enjoyed today compliments of my friend Yokes.  Although I might call it a victory cake, my friend and I both agree that I did win this cake as a result of an electorate who does not believe that freedom and personal responsibility is a "real big deal".  However, as the eternal optimist, I do believe that the America I once knew will rebound and once again become the most respected nation on this planet.  Whether it be from its political stability or its economic steadfastness, America will regain its status on the world stage...and with that, I will leave you with this folk classic...

I'll try to keep y'all posted on the pending weather for Thanksgiving week!

Enjoy your Wednesday!

Smitty

AA:  Nice weather this week...deteriorating into early next week!